Nine and a half is a lot to lay with a 2-4 team, even one that has won two in a row. I'll take the points, quarterback question and all.
New York Giants (3-2-1) at Houston Texans (2-4), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on Fox at Reliant Stadium. The consensus has Houston −9.5 with a total of 43 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: New York Giants +9.5, Over 43, and a final of Texans 28, Giants 19.
Why the Giants? Start with the honest part: The Formula rates the Texans at −1.8 and the Giants at −9.6. Add 1.75 for home field and it's Texans by 9.6. That's right on top of the number, and my averaged final, Texans 28, Giants 19, is a nine-point game. Half a point short of 9.5. When the number is this big and the projection lands just inside it, I want the side getting the points. Houston has won two straight, but the Texans have scored 144 and allowed 143. That's not a team that has been burying people.
Here's what In The Trenches saw, and why it likes the Giants +9.5: New York's run defense gives up 5.3 yards a carry, but Houston only runs for 3.6, 1.6 yards a carry below what the Giants allow. A team that can't run can't sit on a big lead, and nine and a half is a lot of points to protect for four quarters.
The caveat, and it's a real one: the Giants still haven't named a Week 7 starter. As of Tuesday morning, John Harbaugh was still choosing between Jameis Winston, who threw two interceptions last week, and J.J. McCarthy, who came on late in that game. Harbaugh said Monday he is narrowing it down, and the Giants hold their first practice of the week on Wednesday. The official injury report isn't out yet. Whoever gets the call, he's facing Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter behind a Giants front that allows sacks on 7.9% of dropbacks.
Why the Over? The Formula's number is 46.9, and it likes the Over 43 outright. My final adds up to 47. The Giants just put up 27 in a game they trailed 34-10, and Houston's last game produced 65 points. That's plenty of cushion.
Now, the room, and this one gets loud. The Formula, Next Man Up and Letdown Watch all have Texans 28, Giants 18, and The Formula's card shows Houston −9.5. In The Trenches borrows that same score and likes the Giants +9.5. Same score, opposite sides. Follow The Money makes no pick, but its market split is Texans 26, Giants 17, a 43-point game.
In The Trenches started it: "Laying nine and a half with a team that can't run the ball? Bold."
The Formula fired back: "Bold is taking the Giants without knowing who's playing quarterback. Same score as you, genius, and I still sleep better."
Follow The Money stayed out of it.
Bottom of the card: a projection that lands just inside the number, a Houston run game that can't put teams away, and a total that's too low for the way both offenses just played. Take the 9.5 and the Over.
Texans 28, Giants 19. Giants cover the 9.5. Over 43.