Toledo's blockers have allowed three sacks all season. Three. Rocco Szczepanski grades offenses in horsepower, and he says that's a Wrangler with the doors off. Corwin Dahlquist grades opponents like diner breakfasts, and he brought syrup.
Western Michigan (5-2) at Toledo (5-2), Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET on CBSSN at the Glass Bowl. It's a MAC game and Senior Day in the Glass City. DraftKings has Toledo Rockets −3.5 with a total of 45.5. My card: Toledo Rockets −3.5, Over 45.5, and a final of Toledo Rockets 26, Western Michigan Broncos 22.
Rocco speaks for Toledo, from a Jeep-plant family. "John Alan Richter has 1,853 yards, 14 touchdowns and one interception. We score 36.3 points a game. We scored on all five first-half possessions at Eastern Michigan. Bring syrup, Corwin. We're bringing the V8."
Corwin speaks for Western Michigan, a Kalamazoo paper engineer. "Your offense is a full stack, Rocco. Ours comes with blueberries. We're the reigning MAC champs, we've won three in a row, and Jalen Buckley ran for 150 yards and two scores at Central Michigan."
So why Toledo? Because the Rockets' offense is the best thing on the field, and it protects the quarterback like a vault. Toledo gains 459.0 yards a game, 20th in FBS. Western Michigan's pass rush has 16 sacks, and something has to give against a line that has allowed three. Toledo's defense has 20 sacks of its own and just held Eastern Michigan to 34 rushing yards. My final has the Rockets by four, enough to clear 3.5.
The caveat is the flags. Toledo ranks 126th in FBS in penalties, and Western Michigan ranks 24th. The Broncos are also plus-4 in turnover margin and allow just 16.9 points a game. Broc Lowry, the reigning MAC Offensive Player of the Year, has eight touchdown passes and one interception. This is a good team that lost 13-12 at Michigan.
Why the Over? Toledo's offense doesn't stall, and Buckley against a Toledo run defense giving up 125.4 yards a game should keep the Broncos moving too. My 26-22 adds up to 48, two and a half over 45.5.
Now the room, and the total is easy: four voices call the Over. In The Trenches sits this one out. The side is a fight. Next Man Up has Toledo 26-20 and likes the Rockets. Follow The Money likes them too, and Letdown Watch has 27-21. The Formula has Toledo 26-25, a one-point game, so it takes Western Michigan +3.5.
The Formula opened: "Twenty-six to 25. Western Michigan is the champ until somebody takes the belt. I'll take the points."
Next Man Up answered: "Twenty-six to 20. Three sacks allowed all year. Your champs can't even reach the quarterback."
Letdown Watch added: "Senior Day, noon kick, home crowd. I've got Toledo by six. Somebody bring Corwin a short stack for the drive home."
Bottom of the card: the home team with the better offense, pass protection that has allowed three sacks, and a Senior Day crowd. Full stack for Corwin either way. I'll lay the 3.5.
Toledo Rockets 26, Western Michigan Broncos 22. Toledo Rockets cover the 3.5. Over 45.5.