Kentucky's quarterback has thrown one interception all season. Vanderbilt's has thrown seven, against a defense that has taken the ball away 16 times. Rhett Abernathy-Coyle, a Kentucky fan raised on a horse farm out past Keeneland, grades teams like bloodlines. Pippa Ashcroft, a Vanderbilt economics student, writes a country song about every game.
Vanderbilt (3-4) at No. 12 Kentucky (6-1), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network at Kroger Field in Lexington. It's an SEC game and a Blue Out under the lights. DraftKings has Kentucky Wildcats −11.5 with a total of 51.5. My card: Vanderbilt Commodores +11.5, Over 51.5, and a final of Kentucky Wildcats 33, Vanderbilt Commodores 22.
Rhett speaks for Kentucky. "Kenny Minchey has 13 touchdown passes and just one interception. We're plus-11 in turnover margin, third in FBS, and 3-0 on the road. Five straight wins since Alabama. A thoroughbred that never breaks stride."
Pippa speaks for Vanderbilt. "Sugar, I grade hooks. Junior Sherrill has 628 receiving yards and caught eight passes for 99 yards and a score last week. Jared Curtis threw for 274. We went 10-3 last season. Every great album saves the anthem for the end."
Why Vanderbilt with 11.5? Kentucky wins, but it doesn't always win big. It won back-to-back one-point games, at South Carolina and against LSU, and won 21-13 at Oklahoma last week. Kentucky converts 29.1% of its third downs, last in FBS, and drives that stall don't build big leads. Sherrill also gets a Kentucky pass defense ranked 116th. My final has Kentucky by 11, half a point inside the number.
The caveat is the turnovers. Curtis has seven interceptions, and Jordan Castell has four picks for Kentucky. If Vanderbilt gives the ball away twice, this one gets long. Vanderbilt's run defense allowed 196 yards to Ole Miss and 170 to Arkansas, so the Wildcats can run. Vanderbilt is 0-4 in the SEC. C.J. Baxter, with eight touchdowns, didn't lead Kentucky's backs at Oklahoma, so watch for his name when the report posts.
Why the Over? Kentucky's takeaways create short fields, and Sherrill should find room against that pass defense. My 33-22 adds up to 55, three and a half over 51.5.
Now the room, and four of five back Kentucky. Next Man Up has 36-20 and likes the Wildcats and the Over. The Formula has 34-22 and likes the Over. Follow The Money likes Kentucky but calls the Under. In The Trenches likes Kentucky. Letdown Watch has 29-26 and likes Vanderbilt and the Over.
Letdown Watch opened: "Twenty-nine to 26. Both teams have a week off after this. Kentucky goes to Tennessee next. This is a Blue Out with one eye on the bye."
Next Man Up answered: "Thirty-six to 20. One interception versus seven. That's not a song, that's a ballad with a sad ending."
The Formula turned on Follow The Money: "Kentucky and the Under? Sherrill gets a pass defense ranked 116th, and you want it low?"
Follow The Money: "Every great horse saves its kick for the stretch."
Bottom of the card: a home team that wins close, a road receiver who can make plays against a soft pass defense, and 11.5 points of cushion. Sing it, Pippa. I'll take the 11.5.
Kentucky Wildcats 33, Vanderbilt Commodores 22. Vanderbilt Commodores cover the 11.5. Over 51.5.