Last week, on fourth-and-4 from his own 28, Bill Belichick went for it. "I wasn't punting again. I wanted to take our best shot," he said. North Carolina beat Duke 24-20, and the Victory Bell rang so loudly it nearly interrupted his press conference. Ainsley Pemberton, a North Carolina fan and kinesiology PhD, calls it the sweetest music in the Triangle.
Syracuse (2-4) at North Carolina (4-2), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network at Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill. It's an ACC game and Family Football Day. DraftKings has North Carolina Tar Heels −9.5 with a total of 45.5. My card: North Carolina Tar Heels −9.5, Over 45.5, and a final of North Carolina Tar Heels 29, Syracuse Orange 19.
Ainsley speaks for North Carolina. "How charming, darling. Our defense allows 19.2 points a game. Xavier Lewis has seven sacks. Greg Smith III has three interceptions. And the bell is staying right where it is."
Nico Calabrese speaks for Syracuse, a Salt City fan who has survived more lake-effect winters than he can count. "Umari Hatcher caught 13 passes for 224 yards against Louisville. That's three feet overnight. He has 784 yards and seven touchdowns. We won 42-41 at UConn. We shovel out and go to work."
Why North Carolina by double digits? Discipline. The Tar Heels give up just 33.7 penalty yards a game, fifth in FBS. Syracuse gives up 98, 138th. And Syracuse hasn't named its quarterback. Steve Angeli missed the Louisville game, and Malachi Nelson threw two interceptions in his place. North Carolina's red-zone defense ranks 22nd, which makes Syracuse's trips harder to finish. My final has the Tar Heels by 10.
The caveats are real. North Carolina's offense ranks 117th in yards, and last week it went more than 41 minutes without scoring. Hatcher against a Carolina pass defense ranked 69th is a problem, and Syracuse throws for 291 yards a game, 12th in FBS. Three of Syracuse's four ACC losses were one-score games.
Why the Over? Syracuse's passing game moves the ball, and Carolina should cash in on the penalty yards. My 29-19 adds up to 48, two and a half over 45.5.
Now the room, and four voices call the Over. Next Man Up has North Carolina 29-19, the same as my final, and takes the Tar Heels. Letdown Watch has 29-20, a nine-point game, and takes Syracuse. The Formula has 30-21 and also takes Syracuse. Follow The Money skips the side but calls the Over, and In The Trenches sits this one out.
Next Man Up opened on The Formula: "Thirty to 21? Nine points? Belichick wins by nine on a bad day."
The Formula answered: "Hatcher had 224 yards last week. I'm worried about the receiver, not the math."
Letdown Watch: "Twenty-nine to 20. No. 1 Miami comes to Chapel Hill next week. Family Football Day first. Classic look-ahead."
Follow The Money: "I'm staying off the side. But Belichick doesn't look ahead. He doesn't even look sideways."
Bottom of the card: a team that rarely draws a flag against one that draws plenty, a quarterback question in orange, and a coach who goes for it. Bring a sweater, Nico. I'll lay the 9.5.
North Carolina Tar Heels 29, Syracuse Orange 19. North Carolina Tar Heels cover the 9.5. Over 45.5.