Colorado State scores 35.7 points a game and ranks 138th in points allowed. Kai Delgado-Sorensen surfs Ocean Beach every morning. Ansel Rimrock runs the foothill trails and is lending water bottles to anyone who needs one at 5,000 feet.
San Diego State (3-4) at Colorado State (2-4), Saturday at 6:30 p.m. ET on CW at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins. It's a Pac-12 game in Colorado State's first season in the league. DraftKings has San Diego State Aztecs −3 with a total of 61.5. My card: Colorado State Rams +3, Over 61.5, and a final of San Diego State Aztecs 32, Colorado State Rams 31.
Ansel speaks for Colorado State. "We're plus-8 in turnover margin, sixth in FBS. K'saan Farrar threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns at Texas State. Our top back has 431 yards on just 47 carries. Long climb, short stride."
Kai speaks for San Diego State. "Brah, Lucky Sutton ran for 110 yards against Fresno State, and we won 26-23. Sione Hala has 67 tackles. That's a surfer who never gets out of the water. And we won this game 45-24 last year."
So why the Rams? Because my final has San Diego State by one, and you're getting a field goal at home. San Diego State is 0-3 on the road this year. Its offense gains 292.9 yards a game and holds the ball for just 24:47, 138th in FBS. And the Aztecs' pass defense ranks 131st, which is exactly where Farrar and RJ Vick Jr., with four touchdown catches, want to go.
The caveat is the Colorado State defense. It ranks 138th in yards, rushing yards and points allowed, and it gives up 274.3 rushing yards a game. The Rams just lost 66-27 at Texas State. If San Diego State runs it down their throats, the Aztecs win by more than three. CSU's turnover margin is the thing that has to save it.
Why the Over? San Diego State's pass defense ranks 131st, and Colorado State's defense ranks 138th in points allowed. My 32-31 adds up to 63, a point and a half over 61.5.
Now the room, and four of five like the Rams. Next Man Up has Colorado State winning outright, 33-32, and likes both the Rams and the Over. The Formula has San Diego State 34-33 and the Over, and In The Trenches likes Colorado State. Letdown Watch has San Diego State 31-30 and calls the Under. Follow The Money skips the side but likes the Over.
Next Man Up opened: "Thirty-three to 32, Rams. Plus-8 in turnovers. At home. At altitude. I'll take the points and the oxygen."
Letdown Watch answered: "Thirty-one to 30. I'm with you on the side. But 61 total points? That's an Under."
The Formula fired back: "You have it at 61. The total is 61.5. You're half a point from agreeing with me."
Follow The Money: "No side for me, just the Over. I'm the only one in here who didn't pick a team. That's called peace."
Bottom of the card: a road team that has lost all three road games, a home team that takes the ball away, and a field goal of cushion in a one-point game. Bring two water bottles, Kai. I'll take the three.
San Diego State Aztecs 32, Colorado State Rams 31. Colorado State Rams cover the 3. Over 61.5.