Ten and a half points is a lot of football to give away on a Tuesday night. But Lourdes Ibarguen-Tate already has the cafecito poured, and she is not handing any of it back.
Middle Tennessee (3-3) at Florida International (3-3), Tuesday at 7:00 p.m. ET on CBSSN at Pitbull Stadium in Miami. DraftKings has Florida International Panthers −10.5 with a total of 45.5. My card: Florida International Panthers −10.5, Under 45.5, and a final of Florida International Panthers 28, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 16.
Lourdes speaks for FIU, and she opens with the home split. "We are 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. Opal, sweetheart, you are not on the road tonight. You are in Abuela's living room."
Opal Stonebriar speaks for Middle Tennessee, and she brought biscuits for the press box. "Sugar, Roman Gagliano has thrown two interceptions in 188 passes. You can't slam a domino on a quarterback who never drops one."
She has a point, and it is the best case for the Blue Raiders. Gagliano is 110 of 188 for 1,204 yards and 11 touchdowns, and Middle Tennessee has only four giveaways all season. He just threw for 291 yards and three scores to beat Delaware 33-30, capping a 93-yard drive in the final minutes.
Why FIU anyway? Because the Panther defense is the best thing on this field. FIU allows 14.7 points a game, and DeeJay Holmes Jr. already has five sacks. Middle Tennessee is 0-3 away from home this year, with road losses at Marshall, Jax State and Kansas. And this series has turned lately: FIU won 35-24 in 2024 and 56-30 in 2025.
The worry is the kicking. Robert Czeremcha made five field goals against New Mexico State, then missed from 38 and 49 in a 27-24 loss at Jax State. If FIU has to settle for three, 10.5 gets heavy in a hurry.
Why the Under? JJ Kohl has seven touchdown passes and seven interceptions, so the FIU air show is more matinee than fireworks, and a defense giving up 14.7 points does not usually host track meets. My 28-16 adds up to 44, a point and a half below the number.
Now the room, and it is split right down the middle. Next Man Up is the happiest voice here, with FIU 27-12 and the Under. The Formula has FIU 26-16, one hair short, so it takes Middle Tennessee +10.5, and In The Trenches is on the Blue Raiders too.
Next Man Up opened: "You have FIU by ten and you won't lay ten and a half? That's leaving the party before the cake."
The Formula answered: "Half a point is half a point. Show me a kicker who made his last kick."
Letdown Watch has the biggest number on the board, FIU 31-16, and that score lands on the Over. Follow The Money sits out both the side and the total. Letdown Watch looked over and said, "My Panthers are scoring 31 and you're sitting on your hands? Bold."
Bottom of the card: a home team that hasn't lost in Miami this year, a defense that keeps scores low, and a road team still hunting its first win away from Murfreesboro. Give me the Panthers and the Under.
Florida International Panthers 28, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 16. Florida International Panthers cover the 10.5. Under 45.5.