Jo Ferrante played point guard, so she counts possessions. Abner Kettleworth farms organic kale, so he counts on nobody eating his chips. Friday night in East Hartford, one of them is going to count to 15.5.
Massachusetts (4-3) at UConn (3-3), Friday at 7:00 p.m. ET on CBSSN at Pratt & Whitney Stadium. It's "The Rent at Night," a New England border game. DraftKings has UConn Huskies −15.5 with a total of 48.5. My card: Massachusetts Minutemen +15.5, Over 48.5, and a final of UConn Huskies 33, Massachusetts Minutemen 20.
Jo speaks for UConn. "We gain 451.8 yards a game, 24th in FBS. Kalieb Osborne has 10 touchdown passes and two interceptions, and we're coming off a bye. Fast break, Abner. Next possession."
Abner speaks for UMass, and he never misses a Revolutionary War pun. "One if by run, two if by pass, Jo. Our defense allows 19.1 points a game and is plus-7 in turnover margin, eighth in FBS. We've returned two interceptions for touchdowns. We are a militia with good hands."
UConn should win, and my final says by 13. Osborne went 17 of 23 for 257 yards at Temple, and four different Huskies ran for touchdowns in that 34-20 win. Trey Cornist ran seven times for 114 yards.
But 15.5 is a lot. UMass opened 4-0, including a 37-21 win at Rutgers. Two of its three losses came by a point or in overtime, the latest a 25-18 overtime loss at Buffalo. A defense that takes the ball away is exactly the kind of team that stays inside a big number. Jo said it herself: turnovers are steals.
The worry for UMass is the quarterback. The Minutemen haven't named a starter after Logan Inagawa played at Buffalo, while William Watson III, who has completed 74.0% of his passes, is the season leader.
Why the Over? UConn's pass defense allows 290.5 yards a game, 135th in FBS. Whoever plays quarterback for UMass is going to have room to throw. And UConn's offense isn't slowing down for anybody. My 33-20 adds up to 53, four and a half over 48.5.
Now the room. The Formula has UConn 31-23 and likes UMass and the Over. Next Man Up has UConn 33-21, likes UMass, and likes the Over. Letdown Watch is the lone Husky, at 36-18, but it likes the Over as well. Follow The Money skips the side and takes the Under, and In The Trenches sits this one out.
Letdown Watch fired first: "Thirty-six to 18. UConn had a week off to get ready. You two are going to be very lonely on that side."
The Formula answered: "We're not lonely. We're a majority."
Next Man Up took aim at Follow The Money: "No side, and the only Under in the room? Even Abner's kale chips make more sense."
Follow The Money: "Nobody eats the kale chips. Nobody joins me on the Under either. It's a theme."
Bottom of the card: a better home team, a big number, and a road defense that takes the ball away. Pack the Rent, as Jo says. I'll take the 15.5 and the Over.
UConn Huskies 33, Massachusetts Minutemen 20. Massachusetts Minutemen cover the 15.5. Over 48.5.