Indiana went 23 games without losing. Then Ohio State won 19-15 when Nick Marsh couldn't get his left foot down on the last play. Now the champs walk into a sold-out Big House a week later. No pressure.
No. 6 Indiana (6-1) at Michigan (4-2), Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET on Fox at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. It's a Big Ten game, Michigan's Block Cancer Game and Parents Weekend. DraftKings has Indiana Hoosiers −7 with a total of 41.5. My card: Indiana Hoosiers −7, Over 41.5, and a final of Indiana Hoosiers 27, Michigan Wolverines 17.
Mallory Penhallow speaks for Indiana, a former Miss Monroe County runner-up. "Hello, Hoosier Nation! Josh Hoover has 18 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Charlie Becker has 694 yards and eight scores. Pageant answer: it's the explosives, darling."
Gus Hartwell speaks for Michigan, an engineering-school stats savant in a maize sweater. "Hail to the spreadsheet. Our defense allows 256.5 yards a game, third in FBS. And we just scored 21 second-half points to beat Penn State. I made a pivot table to celebrate."
The Michigan defense is real. The Michigan offense is a question mark with a sweater on. Kyle Whittingham hasn't named a starting quarterback. Bryce Underwood has six interceptions and was benched at halftime against Penn State, and true freshman Tommy Carr went 5 of 7 in relief. Michigan has lost 11 turnovers and is minus-3 in margin. Indiana has lost only three.
That's the case for Indiana. The Hoosiers allow 12.9 points a game, fourth in FBS. Tobi Osunsanmi has seven sacks. They held Ohio State to 313 yards, only 78 on the ground, and still lost by four. My final has Indiana by 10, which clears the seven.
The caveat is Hoover's shoulder. He landed on it against Ohio State, missed one play and finished, but Indiana hasn't given an official status. Check the Big Ten availability report. Michigan is also 4-1 at home, and its losses were 20-19 to Iowa and 20-14 at Minnesota.
Why the Over? It's a low number for an offense like Indiana's. Becker has eight touchdown catches and Marsh has seven, and Michigan's turnovers hand out short fields. My 27-17 adds up to 44, two and a half over 41.5.
Now the room, and it's nearly unanimous. The Formula has the exact same 27-17 and likes Indiana and the Over. Letdown Watch has the widest gap, Indiana 29-16, and likes both too. Next Man Up has 27-16. In The Trenches sits this one out. Follow The Money is the holdout: no side, and the Under.
Letdown Watch opened: "Sitting out the side, Money? The national champs, after a loss, against a team that doesn't know who its quarterback is?"
Follow The Money answered: "Big House, sold out, Parents Weekend. Mom's watching. Michigan hangs around."
The Formula chimed in: "Same score as the boss. I'm just going to sit here and look smart."
Bottom of the card: the best defense on the field, the quarterback who doesn't throw picks, and a home team that hasn't settled on its own. Mallory gets her sash. Gus gets his pivot table. I'll lay the seven.
Indiana Hoosiers 27, Michigan Wolverines 17. Indiana Hoosiers cover the 7. Over 41.5.