Utah has never beaten Houston. Houston leads the series 5-0. Utah also has the longest active winning run in FBS, 12 games. Something has to give, late Saturday night in Salt Lake City. Yolanda "Yo" Pacheco, a Houston fan who breaks down every game like a launch countdown, says Houston, we have liftoff. Aspen Mortensen, a Utah fan and skier, says the mountain's steep at night.
No. 14 Houston (6-1) at No. 10 Utah (6-0), Saturday at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN at Rice-Eccles Stadium. It's a Big 12 night game and Utah's Homecoming. DraftKings has Utah Utes −6.5 with a total of 56.5. My card: Utah Utes −6.5, Over 56.5, and a final of Utah Utes 34, Houston Cougars 25.
Aspen speaks for Utah. "Send it, no fear, Yo. We've scored a touchdown on our opening drive in every game. We've outscored opponents 75-3 in the first quarter. Six for six, our first 6-0 start since 2015."
Yo speaks for Houston. "Conner Weigman has 20 touchdown passes and two interceptions. That's a clean launch every time. He threw five touchdown passes against No. 18 Oklahoma State. Four straight wins, and Willie Fritz says he just keeps getting a little bit better every single week."
Why Utah by a touchdown? The first quarter. Utah has outscored people 75-3 in the opening quarter, and Houston has to survive that on the road, late at night, at Homecoming. Utah's defense allows 14.8 points a game and has allowed only 25 conversions on 81 third downs. Devon Dampier has 15 touchdown passes, and Wayshawn Parker has seven rushing scores. My final has Utah by nine.
The caveats are real. Weigman is the best quarterback on the field, and Houston has converted 54 of 88 third downs. Houston's run defense allows 82.6 yards a game, which could take away Parker. Utah's last win was 27-24 at Colorado, with two Dampier interceptions. "It's not always pretty, but we did enough," Morgan Scalley said. And 5-0 is 5-0.
Why the Over? Weigman's offense gained 505 yards last week, and Utah scores early in every game. My 34-25 adds up to 59, two and a half over 56.5.
Now the room, and it's split on the side, but four voices call the Over. Next Man Up has Utah 35-26 and likes the Over. Letdown Watch has 36-21 and likes the Utes. Follow The Money skips the side and likes the Over. The Formula has Utah 31-27 and takes Houston, and In The Trenches sits this one out.
The Formula opened: "Thirty-one to 27. Houston has never lost to Utah. Never. And you want to lay a touchdown?"
Letdown Watch answered: "Thirty-six to 21. Utah's been waiting at the lift for this one a long time. Homecoming at night."
Next Man Up turned on The Formula: "You've got Utah winning and you're still on Houston? Never is a long time, friend."
Follow The Money: "No side for me. But the countdown says points."
Bottom of the card: a home team that scores first every week, a road quarterback who's playing great, and a series history that's begging to be broken. Every ski run has a bottom. I'll lay the 6.5.
Utah Utes 34, Houston Cougars 25. Utah Utes cover the 6.5. Over 56.5.