Colorado had more penalty yards than total yards at halftime last week, 82 to 70. Then the Buffs gained 324 yards after the break and nearly caught No. 11 Utah. Moss Feldstein, a Colorado fan who crunches numbers from a hammock, calls that two different data sets. Dusty Lockridge, an Oklahoma State fan who times plays with a stopwatch from the saddle, calls it Saturday.
Colorado (2-4) at Oklahoma State (4-2), Saturday at 7:00 p.m. ET on FS1 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater. It's a Big 12 game, it's America's Greatest Homecoming, and it's sold out. DraftKings has Oklahoma State Cowboys −14 with a total of 54.5. My card: Colorado Buffaloes +14, Under 54.5, and a final of Oklahoma State Cowboys 31, Colorado Buffaloes 21.
Dusty speaks for Oklahoma State. "Moss, Drew Mestemaker has thrown for 300-plus yards in five straight games. That cowboy can rope. He has 1,940 yards and 16 touchdowns, and Wyatt Young has 561 receiving yards."
Moss speaks for Colorado. "Statistically, Dusty, that's rad. But we won the last meeting 52-0. And Isaac Wilson threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns last week. Coach Prime said, 'Isaac is that guy.' I'm working on our penalties."
Why Colorado with two touchdowns? My final has the Cowboys by 10. Oklahoma State just lost 35-32 at Houston, and it trailed 14-3 at halftime before scoring 29 points in the second half. It also had a season-high nine penalties. The Cowboys are good, but they haven't been a team that buries people early. Colorado lost by three to No. 11 Utah, with a pass rush that has 13 sacks.
The caveats are real. Colorado has lost 13 turnovers, and it hasn't said whether Wilson or Julian Lewis starts. Mestemaker against a defense that gives the ball back that often could get ugly. Discipline is the frustration Coach Prime keeps naming, and the first half against Utah proved it.
Why the Under? Oklahoma State scores about 37.2 points a game, and that's the risk. But Colorado's offense has spent first halves going backward, and penalty yards don't put up points. My 31-21 adds up to 52, two and a half under 54.5.
Now the room, and the Under is unanimous. Letdown Watch has Oklahoma State 28-24 and likes both Colorado and the Under. The Formula has 31-22 and likes the Buffs. Next Man Up has 31-18, taking Colorado and liking the Under. Follow The Money skips the side and likes the Under. In The Trenches likes Oklahoma State.
In The Trenches opened: "Five straight 300-yard games. Homecoming. Sold out. Lay the 14."
Letdown Watch answered: "Twenty-eight to 24. Homecoming hangover is real."
The Formula added: "Thirty-one to 22. Follow The Money, you won't even pick a side with 14 points on the table?"
Follow The Money: "Peace, love and the Under."
Bottom of the card: a home team that starts slow, a road team that finishes fast, and two touchdowns of cushion. Saddle up, Moss. I'll take the 14.
Oklahoma State Cowboys 31, Colorado Buffaloes 21. Colorado Buffaloes cover the 14. Under 54.5.