Kendra Woolcott opens every take with a weather report. This week's: 59 and sunny, almost no wind. Darcy Fenwick played goalie for Bowling Green's club hockey team and says sunny days are for shooters. Somebody is getting scored on.
Bowling Green (2-5) at Buffalo (4-3), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+ at Broadview Stadium. It's a MAC game and Senior Day at UB. DraftKings has Buffalo Bulls −4 with a total of 44.5. My card: Buffalo Bulls −4, Over 44.5, and a final of Buffalo Bulls 27, Bowling Green Falcons 20.
Kendra speaks for Buffalo, a Western New York tailgate legend, for wing sauce, not furniture. "Messiah Burch has 661 yards on 118 carries. He ran 28 times for 172 yards against UMass. He's a snowplow, and the forecast calls for heavy accumulation."
Darcy speaks for Bowling Green and watches football from the crease. "Love the parka, Kendra. Dorian Pringle has 67 tackles, seventh in FBS, and we have 18 sacks. And we're 2-1 in the MAC, no matter what the overall says."
The matchup is the headline. Bowling Green's run defense allows 209.6 yards a game, 132nd in FBS. And Burch is coming off 172 yards. Darcy's own save chart says the Falcons have to be better than 132nd, and it doesn't sound hopeful. Buffalo has won two in a row, including a 23-8 road win over Toledo earlier this year. My final has the Bulls by seven.
The caveat: Buffalo is minus-4 in turnovers, 113th in FBS, and Jason Wright completes 48.2% of his passes. That's not a passing game that closes out a game on its own. Jay Kastantin completes 66.5% for Bowling Green, and Buffalo's pass defense ranks 97th. The Falcons just lost 32-31 to Ball State, so they can score.
Why the Over? Burch should run all day, and Kastantin should find room against a pass defense ranked 97th. The weather is perfect. My 27-20 adds up to 47, two and a half over 44.5. The 2021 meeting finished 56-44, and while nobody's calling for that, the number is low.
Now the room, and Bowling Green gets no love. Next Man Up has Buffalo 28-19 and likes the Bulls. Letdown Watch has 27-19 and likes them too. The Formula has 27-21 and likes the Over. Follow The Money skips the side but calls the Over, and In The Trenches sits this one out.
Letdown Watch opened: "Twenty-seven to 19. A snowplow against the 132nd-ranked run defense. This is a weather report, not a game."
Next Man Up answered: "Twenty-eight to 19. I'm with you. Burch gets fed, Senior Day crowd goes home happy."
The Formula looked at Follow The Money: "No side and the Over? You came for the wings, not the football."
Follow The Money: "Last wing on the plate. I'm holding on to it."
Bottom of the card: a home back with a great matchup, a road run defense that can't stop him, and perfect weather for points. Bring sunscreen and a pass rush, Kendra says. I'll lay the four.
Buffalo Bulls 27, Bowling Green Falcons 20. Buffalo Bulls cover the 4. Over 44.5.