Part 1: The misses
Every pick below is graded against the line printed on its card when the game kicked off, not the closing line. A push counts as neither a hit nor a miss.
Monday night is final, so the whole weekend is graded. It leads off both parts.
Commanders 17, 49ers 23
The card's own story flagged the danger: the number sat a half-point past 7, so a 49ers win by exactly 7 would land on Washington's side. The 49ers came up even shorter than that.
For most of three quarters, nobody was sweating. Christian McCaffrey scored twice from a yard out, the second with 13 seconds left in the half, for a 20-3 lead. Eddy Pineiro's 33-yard field goal made it 23-3 with 5:56 left in the third. San Francisco was covering by 12.5.
The 49ers had already left points out there. Pineiro missed the extra point after McCaffrey's first touchdown, wide right, so it was 13-3 instead of 14-3. In the second quarter, McCaffrey caught a pass at the Washington 21 and fumbled, and Frankie Luvu recovered at the 19. The field-goal drive in the third stalled at the Washington 14 on a third-and-3 incompletion.
Then Washington came back. Facing fourth-and-5 at the San Francisco 31, Jayden Daniels hit Stefon Diggs for 13 yards. Diggs caught a 1-yard touchdown with 15 seconds left in the third: 23-10.
The next Washington drive killed the cover, and San Francisco flags kept it moving. On third-and-4 at the Washington 26, an incompletion became a first down on illegal contact against R. Green. On third-and-8 at the San Francisco 41, Antonio Williams caught a 23-yard pass, and roughing the passer on Osa Odighizuwa moved the ball to the 9. On the next snap, Daniels threw a 9-yard touchdown to Rachaad White: 23-17 with 9:22 left.
That made it a 6-point game, and San Francisco −7.5 needed one more score. It never came. The 49ers' last three possessions all ended in punts, two of them stalled by sacks of Brock Purdy from Shy Tuttle and Odafe Oweh. San Francisco did not score after the 5:56 mark of the third quarter.
Put Pineiro's missed extra point back and it is a 7-point win, still a half-point short.
The 49ers almost lost it outright. Their last punt came after a delay of game, and a fair-catch interference penalty on Siran Neal handed Washington the ball at its own 46. Daniels got the Commanders to the San Francisco 28 with 22 seconds left. Then came an intentional-grounding penalty with a 10-second runoff and an 18-yard sack by Keion White and Romello Height on the last snap.
Follow The Money is the one card that never laid the 7.5. It gets no credit for that, but it did not get burned either.
It was 33 points after three quarters, so the Over needed 20 more in the fourth. The fourth produced 7. The biggest near-miss came with 4:19 left, when Jeremy McNichols ran 31 yards for a touchdown that would have tied it, and a face-mask penalty on C. Paul wiped it out. Washington got another life when a fourth-and-8 sack was erased by illegal contact on Ashtyn Davis. Then Daniels threw incomplete to Treylon Burks on fourth-and-3 at the San Francisco 17 with 2:00 left.
Even with McNichols' touchdown and an extra point, the total would have been 47, six short. Follow The Money took on the other four cards on this total and lost that argument by 12 points.
Bears 31, Falcons 23
The Formula's case was a ratings gap: Falcons +2.6, Bears −5.9, plus home field, for Atlanta by 10.3. Follow The Money's case was the line moving from Falcons +3.5 to +1.5. Chicago led 21-7 at the half, and the ratings gap never showed up on the field.
Atlanta's first drive of the second half died on fourth-and-3 at the Chicago 28 with an incompletion. Late in the third, Zachariah Branch fumbled a kickoff and Chicago recovered at the Atlanta 31. That became a Cairo Santos 50-yard field goal and a 31-7 lead.
Atlanta still had a way back at 31-23 with about three minutes left. A holding call erased a 9-yard completion on third-and-6. On third-and-16, Kyler Gordon strip-sacked Michael Penix Jr. and Chicago recovered at the Atlanta 28. That ended the cover.
Ravens 10, Browns 13
The Formula had the Ravens by 9.6 on the ratings. The Ravens scored 10 points in the first quarter and none after it.
The game turned in about 90 seconds early in the fourth quarter. Tyler Loop missed a 49-yard field goal wide left at 10-3. On Baltimore's next snap, Derrick Henry fumbled and Cleveland recovered at the Baltimore 35. Audric Estime scored from 2 yards out to tie it 10-10 with 8:33 left. From there Baltimore needed to win by four, and it never scored again.
The finish was a penalty story. With 2 seconds left, Andre Szmyt's 42-yard try was blocked, but the Ravens were flagged for offside on the play, so the block did not count. Szmyt made the next one from 37.
Titans 26, Colts 20
The averaged projection was a 44-point game, and the game went right up to the number. With 2:03 left it was 23-20, a 43-point game. Indianapolis then went backward: a sack on third-and-10, then an incompletion on fourth-and-17 from its own 31. That handed Tennessee the ball at the Colts' 31, and Joey Slye's 44-yard field goal with 43 seconds left made it 46.
No projection includes a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, and this game had one. J. Chestnut blocked it and Oluwafemi Oladejo returned it 14 yards for a 20-13 lead with 10:17 left.
Jets 19, Patriots 26
The card named this exact risk before kickoff: "A Patriots win by exactly 7 lands on the Jets' side, which is why the hook matters here." A win by exactly 7 is what happened.
Three plays did it. First, Andy Borregales missed the extra point after Hunter Henry's 7-yard touchdown with 14:10 left, so it was 23-13 instead of 24-13. Second, with 1:14 left New England had fourth-and-1 at the Jets' 4, took a delay-of-game penalty, and kicked a 27-yard field goal for 26-16. Third, on the Jets' last drive, K. Byard was called for pass interference, 17 yards, to the New England 18 with 46 seconds left. Jason Sanders kicked a 36-yarder with 32 seconds left.
That one kick made it a 7-point game and a 45-point game. It flipped the side and pushed the total over at the same time.
Saints 34, Giants 27
The card saw a coin flip: the ratings had the Giants by 0.1. It was 10-10 at the half, and then New Orleans scored 24 straight points. Tyler Shough threw a 31-yard touchdown to Alvin Kamara and ran one in from a yard out. Daniel Carlson added a 51-yard field goal. Jameis Winston threw two interceptions in that stretch, and the second set up Shough's 18-yard touchdown to Chris Olave for 34-10. J.J. McCarthy took the Giants' snaps from there.
The Under was still alive at 44 points with 11:31 left. Then the Giants scored 17 points in the final 11 minutes. Tyrone Tracy Jr.'s 5-yard touchdown run plus McCarthy's two-point pass to Isaiah Likely made it 52 with 7:00 left, and the Under was gone.
The side had one last chance. McCarthy drove the Giants from their own 29 to the Saints' 14 in 45 seconds. On fourth-and-1 with 12 seconds left, his pass for Likely fell incomplete. A touchdown and the extra point there would have tied the game, and New York +1.5 would have been safe.
Steelers 26, Buccaneers 19 (overtime)
The Formula had two nearly identical teams, Tampa Bay by 1.6 with home field. Follow The Money had the total falling from 40.5 to 38.5. At the end of regulation, both were still alive.
Tampa Bay led 16-3 going into the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh's touchdown drive early in the fourth got a 15-yard roughing-the-passer call on C. Kancey and ended in Darnell Washington's 5-yard touchdown. Later, on third-and-5, a 12-yard pass interference call on J. Parrish kept alive the drive that ended with Chris Boswell's 58-yard field goal to tie it 16-16.
On Tampa Bay's second snap after the kickoff, J. Dean intercepted Jalon Daniels and returned it 40 yards to the Tampa Bay 3. Pittsburgh settled for Boswell's 20-yarder. Chase McLaughlin's 53-yard field goal with 8 seconds left tied it 19-19. At the end of regulation, Tampa Bay +2.5 was covering and the total was 38, half a point under.
Overtime took both. Pittsburgh went 70 yards in 12 plays, and Aaron Rodgers hit Germie Bernard for a 6-yard touchdown with 3:15 left in the extra period. One throw flipped the side and the total.
Cardinals 18, Rams 16
Four of the five cards agreed, but the agreement was narrower than it looks: Next Man Up, Letdown Watch and In The Trenches each carried The Formula's numbers unchanged. Follow The Money showed no side. The Formula's case was Rams +6.1, Cardinals −8.9, plus home field, for the Rams by 16.8.
The Rams scored one touchdown in the first 59 minutes. Chad Ryland kicked six field goals. Los Angeles was stopped on fourth-and-1 at the Arizona 27 in the third quarter. In the fourth, a 26-yard pass interference call on K. Clark moved the Rams to the Arizona 19, and two plays later T. Higbee fumbled and Arizona recovered at its 25. The Rams failed again on fourth-and-8 at the Arizona 44 with 3:23 left.
Colby Parkinson was ruled down at the 1, replay reversed it to a 6-yard touchdown, and the Rams led 16-15 with 47 seconds left. On Arizona's first snap after the kickoff, J. Brissett hit J. Brooks for 21 yards and J. Wallace was flagged 15 more for unnecessary roughness, to the Rams' 29. That penalty put Arizona in field-goal range, and Ryland made the 43-yarder as time expired.
Chargers 6, Chiefs 22
The Chargers' best chance came in the third quarter. They had first-and-goal at the Kansas City 1, and a holding call on J. Slaughter pushed them back. They settled for a 30-yard field goal and trailed 19-6. Their last drive ended on fourth-and-5 at the Kansas City 8 with a minute left.
The Over needed 42 points and lost points at both ends. Harrison Butker's extra point failed after Kenneth Walker III's 33-yard touchdown run. Kansas City was stopped on fourth-and-goal at the Chargers' 1 in the third quarter. Butker missed a 52-yard try wide right in the fourth. Add the Chargers' red-zone holding call and the 46-point projection on four of the cards ended up at 28.
Bills 33, Raiders 30
Buffalo led 33-23 after Tyler Bass's 38-yard field goal with 1:56 left. That was covering by 4.5. On the next drive, a 22-yard pass interference call on D. Alford moved Las Vegas to the Buffalo 44, and on the next play Kirk Cousins threw a 44-yard touchdown to Tre Tucker with 1:32 left. Buffalo recovered the onside kick, but the cover was already gone.
Buffalo also had a touchdown taken away. In the third quarter, an 18-yard touchdown pass to D. Kincaid on fourth-and-2 was wiped out by a holding call on O. Torrence, and the Bills settled for a 47-yard field goal.
Cowboys 13, Packers 23
In The Trenches' case was the Green Bay run game, 1.92 yards a carry below what Dallas allows. Green Bay led 17-0 at the half. Down 23-7, Dallas drove to the Green Bay 14 and threw incomplete on fourth-and-11 with 5:05 left. Dallas finally scored with 44 seconds left, and the two-point try failed.
Follow The Money's case was the total rising from 52.5 to 53.5. The teams had 27 points through three quarters and 36 at the end.
Florida 27, Texas 24
The Under was alive until 4:21 was left. Cam Coleman's 9-yard touchdown catch from Manning made it 51 points, half a point over.
The Citadel 0, Texas A&M 41
Texas A&M led 34-0 after three quarters and needed to win by 47. Aaron Gregory's 12-yard touchdown catch from Brady Hart with 5:47 left made it 41-0, and that was the last score. The Citadel missed a 47-yard field goal with 1:13 left.
Auburn 27, Georgia 24
Auburn led 24-14 after three quarters and won outright. Georgia's last real chance ended when Gunner Stockton fumbled near midfield with 58 seconds left; C. Sigler forced it and S. Smith-Reed recovered for Auburn.
The Under held until the last play. It was 24-24, a 48-point game, when Georgia was flagged for roughing the passer on G. Harris Jr. with 15 seconds left, 15 yards to the Georgia 19. Alex McPherson's 34-yard field goal on the final play made it 51.
Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21
Arkansas led 28-21 after Cam Settles' 3-yard run with 9 seconds left in the third. Vanderbilt's best drive of the fourth went 63 yards in 14 plays and ended with an interception by M. Mitchell.
The total was 49 with 24 seconds left. Max Gilbert's 39-yard field goal made it 52.
Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13
Kentucky won outright. Willie Rodriguez's 12-yard touchdown catch from Kenny Minchey put Kentucky ahead 14-13 with 12:53 left, and Jordan Castell returned an interception 41 yards for a touchdown with 1:17 left.
Kansas 24, Kansas State 35
Kansas led 24-18 in the third. Two fourth-quarter plays hurt it most. Isaiah Marshall was intercepted at the goal line by L. Bartley with 10:02 left, and Kansas State scored on its next possession, Jaron Tibbs' 9-yard catch from Avery Johnson for 32-24, a drive helped by a Kansas face-mask penalty. Then Marshall broke a 46-yard touchdown run, and another Kansas face-mask penalty took it off the board. That touchdown would have made it 32-30 before the extra point.
Arizona State 25, Texas Tech 53
Texas Tech led 43-10 at the half. It started with Ben Roberts' 24-yard interception return, and J'Koby Williams added touchdown runs of 62 and 38 yards.
The Under rested on Texas Tech's defense. The defense scored, and the offense scored 46 more. The total passed 49.5 before halftime, on Coy Eakin's 11-yard catch from Will Hammond with 31 seconds left in the second quarter. The final total was 78.
Notre Dame 24, BYU 28
BYU won outright. Notre Dame led 24-21 after Jonaz Walton's 3-yard run and two-point run with 9:31 left. Bear Bachmeier's 6-yard touchdown pass to Walker Lyons with 1:47 left won it.
Lyons' touchdown also took the total from 45 to 52.
Oklahoma State 32, Houston 35
Houston led 35-25 after Koby Young's 48-yard catch with 9:48 left. Drew Mestemaker's 8-yard touchdown pass to Justin Bowick with 4:54 left cut it to 3, and nobody scored after that.
Utah 27, Colorado 24
The Under stood at 44 points with 1:21 left. DeAndre Moore Jr.'s 2-yard touchdown catch from Isaac Wilson made it 51.
Charleston Southern 0, Clemson 37
Clemson led 34-0 at the half and scored 3 more points. Nolan Hauser's 44-yard field goal early in the fourth was the last score. Clemson's last drive ended on downs at the Charleston Southern 27.
Pittsburgh 21, Boston College 27
The Under was gone with 13:02 left, when Evan Dickens' 1-yard run made it 45 points. The final total was 48.
Georgia Tech 24, Virginia Tech 34
Georgia Tech trailed 34-17 and got within 10, which was not enough. The key play: Aidan Birr missed a 32-yard field goal with 10:26 left. Jaiven Plummer's 6-yard touchdown catch with 5:20 left then made it 34-24. Had Birr's kick been good, that touchdown would have left a 7-point game.
North Carolina 24, Duke 20
Duke rallied from 17-0 and led 20-17 after Nate Sheppard's 7-yard catch from Walker Eget with 4:39 left. Jaylen McGill's 24-yard touchdown run with 1:53 left put North Carolina back in front, and K. Dopson III intercepted Eget at the North Carolina 15 with 19 seconds left.
Florida State 35, Miami 43 (2 overtimes)
Florida State led 21-14 after three quarters and did not go away. Duce Robinson's 75-yard touchdown catch from Ashton Daniels tied it 28-28 with 2:39 left. Miami won in the second overtime on Malachi Toney's 3-yard touchdown catch, and Toney threw the two-point pass himself.
Elon 7, Stanford 34
Stanford led 34-0 after Micah Ford's 81-yard run early in the fourth, and the extra point failed. That left Stanford exactly 34 points ahead, half a point short. Elon's Kamerin McDowell-Moore then scored on an 18-yard run, and Stanford's last scoring chance ended with a fumble at the Elon 1 that went through the end zone for a touchback.
Louisville 34, Syracuse 26
Syracuse, playing its third quarterback option, led 23-21 in the second quarter and trailed only 28-26 with 12:45 left. Keyjuan Brown's 5-yard run with 7:34 left made it 34-26, and the extra point failed. Syracuse's last two drives ended on downs, but an 8-point loss covers 14.5.
Wake Forest 41, California 7
Wake Forest led 41-0 after three quarters. Dominick Barry caught three of Gio Lopez's touchdown passes.
Wake Forest did its part with 41. California scored 7, on Mason Mini's 28-yard catch in the fourth, and its last drive ended on downs. The total was 48.
Ohio State 19, Indiana 15
Indiana needed to lose by 2 or fewer. Ohio State's two-point try failed after Jeremiah Smith's 38-yard touchdown catch, leaving it 19-7. Josh Hoover's 19-yard touchdown pass to Nick Marsh and a two-point pass to Turbo Richard made it 19-15 with 10:30 left. Indiana's last drive ended with a fourth-down incompletion for Marsh with 1:07 left.
Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21
Northwestern won on the last kick but never covered at any point. It trailed 21-13 in the fourth, tied it on Aidan Chiles' 1-yard run and two-point pass, blocked Michigan State's 33-yard field goal try with a minute left, and won on Jackson Kleather's 34-yarder with 2 seconds left. A 3-point win, 4 points short.
The game had two blocked field goals, a Kleather try in the second quarter and Michigan State's late one. The total was 45.
Rutgers 37, Maryland 30
Tied 23-23 late in the third, Rutgers then scored two touchdowns: Clay Thevenin's 7-yard run and Antwan Raymond's 2-yard run for 37-23. Maryland's last drive ended on a fourth-down incompletion with 19 seconds left.
The total passed 55.5 on Raymond's touchdown with 4:03 left. The final total was 67. The card's forecast of gusts around 37 mph did not slow either offense.
Penn State 18, Michigan 21
Michigan led 21-11 after Tommy Carr's 12-yard run with 2:58 left. On third-and-8 at the Michigan 34 with 1:18 left, Michigan was called for holding, a 10-yard penalty and a first down. On the next play Rocco Becht hit Chase Sowell for a 24-yard touchdown. Final 21-18.
Wisconsin 7, UCLA 17
Wisconsin got within 10-7 in the third. Anthony Woods' 3-yard run with 11:31 left made it 17-7, and Wisconsin's next drive ended on a fourth-down run near midfield.
Nebraska 14, Oregon 17
Nebraska led 14-6 after Anthony Colandrea's 6-yard run with 7 seconds left in the third. Oregon won on a 4-yard touchdown pass from Dylan Raiola to Jamari Johnson and a two-point pass with 28 seconds left, but a 3-point win does not cover 7.
Florida Atlantic 24, Army 56
It was 14-14 late in the first quarter, and Army led 35-14 at the half. Cale Hellums ran for five touchdowns.
Charlotte 38, Temple 31
The total passed 46.5 on Harrell's 9-yard touchdown pass to Gus McGee with 14:12 left. The final total was 69.
Tulsa 38, Rice 17
Rice led 17-7 on Jacurri Brown's runs of 50 and 78 yards. Tulsa scored the last 31 points, finishing with Trequan Jones' 45-yard run and a two-point run with 3:39 left.
Sevion Morrison's 6-yard touchdown catch with 10:06 left made it 47 points even with the missed extra point. The final total was 55.
Kent State 2, South Florida 29
South Florida led only 17-2 after three quarters. Cameron Seldon's 36-yard touchdown catch early in the fourth made it 24-2 and put USF past 20.5. A safety with 11 seconds left made the final 29-2.
Navy 34, UTSA 38
There were four lead changes in the fourth quarter. UTSA won on Owen McCown's 41-yard touchdown pass to A'Marion Peterson with 2:24 left. That was a 4-point lead, and UTSA needed 7. It got one more chance, and Peterson was stopped on fourth down at the Navy 10 with 10 seconds left.
Ball State 32, Bowling Green 31 (overtime)
Bowling Green tied it 17-17 with 1:12 left, and 11 seconds later D'kyah Banks returned a fumble 35 yards for a touchdown and a 24-17 lead. At that moment Bowling Green −6.5 was covering by half a point. Ball State answered with Keldric Luster's 20-yard touchdown pass to Eli Hohlt on the last play of regulation. In overtime Bowling Green scored first, on Austyn Dendy's 4-yard run, and Ball State won 32-31 on TJ Horton's 1-yard run and Luster's two-point pass to Alex Scherle.
Massachusetts 18, Buffalo 25 (overtime)
Every side pick in this game pushed at 7. The Under missed by half a point. It was 18-18 and 36 points after Oliver Hautanen's 29-yard field goal with 2 seconds left. In overtime, Jason Wright's 15-yard touchdown pass to Clint Walker and the extra point made it 25-18 and 43 total. The kick after the touchdown was the half point.
Toledo 34, Eastern Michigan 14
Toledo led 31-7 at the half and 34-14 at the end. Eastern Michigan's two fourth-quarter drives into Toledo territory ended on fourth-down sacks.
Akron 14, Miami (OH) 34
Miami's Blayne Myrick returned an interception 36 yards for a touchdown late in the third for 27-7. Akron threw two more interceptions early in the fourth.
Ohio 48, Sacramento State 7
Ohio led 27-0 at the half. Nick Poulos' 67-yard touchdown pass to Preston Bowman early in the third made it 34-0, and it was 41-0 after three quarters.
Sacramento State's only touchdown, Brian Salazar Jr.'s 38-yard pass to Kenyon Shabazz with 12:24 left, made it 48 points. Ohio added one more touchdown. The final total was 55.
Georgia State 22, James Madison 49
Camden Coleman threw first-half touchdown passes of 20 and 19 yards, and James Madison led 35-10 at the half.
Troy 6, Louisiana 33
Louisiana led 19-0 at the half. Troy's only score was a 23-yard run, and the extra point failed.
Arkansas State 23, Southern Miss 13
Arkansas State led 16-7 at the half and 23-7 early in the fourth. Steven Robinson's 1-yard run cut it to 23-13 with 10:02 left, and the two-point run failed. Southern Miss got the ball back and threw incomplete on fourth down.
Louisiana Tech 24, UL Monroe 0
It was scoreless at the half. Louisiana Tech's third touchdown, Brayden Bockler's 2-yard catch from Blake Baker with 9:18 left, made it 21-0. ULM's last drive ended on downs at the Tech 19.
The game produced 24 points. A blocked field goal at the end of the first half kept it 0-0.
Northern Illinois 23, Wyoming 41
Tyler Hughes ran for four touchdowns.
The total passed 42.5 in the third quarter on Telly Johnson Jr.'s 13-yard run and two-point conversion. The final total was 64.
UNLV 31, Air Force 41
Medders' 32-yard run also took the total to 51. The final total was 72.
Nevada 17, North Dakota State 31
North Dakota State won by 14 and needed 15. The missing point was its own blocked extra point before halftime. The Bison also scored on a 100-yard return of a missed Nevada field goal on the last play of the half and on a defensive two-point return. Reis Kessel's 12-yard catch early in the fourth made it 31-17, and nobody scored after that.
Kessel's touchdown made the total 48. The missed-field-goal return and the defensive two-point play accounted for 9 of those points.
San José State 24, UTEP 11
San José State led 24-3 early in the fourth. UTEP's touchdown and two-point pass made it 24-11, and its last real drive ended on a fourth-down incompletion into the end zone with 1:49 left.
New Mexico 21, Hawai'i 10
New Mexico trailed 10-0 at the half and won by 11. Scottre Humphrey's 49-yard touchdown run with 3:24 left made it 21-10. New Mexico got the ball back on T. Combs' interception with 2:53 left and did not score again.
Washington State 30, Oregon State 48
Oregon State led 41-22 with nine minutes left, covering by half a point. Owen Eshelman's 20-yard run and two-point pass with 1:37 left made it 41-30. Cornell Hatcher Jr.'s 16-yard run 21 seconds later made it 48-30, an 18-point margin.
The card noted that Washington State had benched its quarterback. The teams scored 78.
Fresno State 23, San Diego State 26
San Diego State won outright. Fresno State tied it 23-23 with 5:02 left on Julius Gillick's 2-yard run, and the extra point failed. Cooper DiLeva kicked a 53-yard field goal with 57 seconds left to win it.
Gillick's touchdown made the total 46, and DiLeva's kick made it 49.
That's the pain, graded honestly at the number on the card. Some missed by a hook, some missed by a mile, and nobody gets to hide behind a closing line.
Part 2: The hits
Commanders 17, 49ers 23
The Under won on drives that got close and came away with little. Washington's first trip inside the San Francisco 20 ended with a fourth-and-2 incompletion at the 13. San Francisco fumbled away a drive at the Washington 19, settled for a field goal from the 14, and missed an extra point. In the fourth, McNichols' 31-yard touchdown came off the board, and that drive died on downs at the 17.
The finish fit the night. Washington got to the San Francisco 28 with 22 seconds left, then lost 12 yards and 10 seconds to intentional grounding and 18 more on the final sack. Final total: 40, a dozen under.
Monday night's bragging rights go to the four Under cards. They beat the lone Over by 12 points.
Texans 34, Jaguars 31 (London)
The Over had a real case. Follow The Money saw 53% of bets on the Under but 80% of the money on the Over, a 27-point split. It went over in the third quarter, when Trevor Lawrence's 1-yard touchdown pass to Nate Boerkircher made it 24-21.
Bears 31, Falcons 23
Follow The Money's case was the total climbing from 49.5 to 52.5 since Oct. 13. One more honest note. The straight average of the five projections was a 52-point game, which is under. The card kept its Over and set the score at Falcons 31, Bears 22 to match. So this Over belongs to Follow The Money more than to the average.
It went over late. Michael Penix Jr. threw a 5-yard touchdown to Kyle Pitts Sr., then threw the two-point pass for 31-23 with 5:41 left, which made it 54.
Ravens 10, Browns 13
Follow The Money's case was the line moving from Browns +4.5 to +3 and the total dropping from 41.5 to 39.5. Both moves were right. The Browns won on Andre Szmyt's 37-yard field goal on the final play.
The same honest note as Chicago-Atlanta, in reverse. The straight average of the five projections was Ravens 24, Browns 16, a 40-point game, which is over. The card kept its Under and set the score at 24-15. The game was never close to the number: after the first quarter, the teams scored 13 points, all by Cleveland.
Titans 26, Colts 20
The Formula had the Colts by 4.1, inside the 6.5. The averaged projection was Colts 24, Titans 20. Tennessee did better than that. Carnell Tate's 8-yard touchdown catch from Cam Ward tied it 13-13 early in the fourth. Less than three minutes later, the blocked punt touchdown put Tennessee ahead. Joey Slye's field goals of 49 and 44 yards in the last 2:03 finished it.
Panthers 25, Eagles 14
The Formula had Carolina by 5.4, a number that included 1.5 points for Philadelphia's starting quarterback being ruled out. Tommy Tremble caught two touchdown passes from Bryce Young, the second for 25-14 with 6:33 left.
The total landed exactly on 39, and it took three things. Carolina's two-point pass failed after Chuba Hubbard's touchdown run early in the fourth. The extra point failed after Tremble's second touchdown. Then Carolina reached first-and-goal at the Philadelphia 2 and kneeled twice to end it.
Cardinals 18, Rams 16
All five cards had the Under, but only two different ways of getting there. The Formula projected 50.9 total points, and three cards carried its numbers unchanged. Follow The Money took the Under because the total moved a point or more. The averaged projection was 51.
Chad Ryland kicked six field goals for Arizona, the last one a 43-yarder on the final play. The Rams' first touchdown came with a failed two-point try, and they did not score again until 47 seconds were left.
Chargers 6, Chiefs 22
Follow The Money took the Under because the total moved a point or more. It was the only Under on the card, and it was right by two touchdowns.
Bills 33, Raiders 30
The Formula projected 56.6 points, and three cards copied it. The averaged projection was 56. The total sat at 53 after James Cook III's 3-yard touchdown run with 4:43 left. Tyler Bass's 38-yard field goal with 1:56 left made it 56, and Tre Tucker's 44-yard touchdown 24 seconds later made it 63.
Cowboys 13, Packers 23
Green Bay led 17-0 at the half on Matthew Golden's 9-yard touchdown catch and Jordan Love's 1-yard run with 23 seconds left in the second quarter. Dallas did not score a touchdown until 44 seconds were left.
Mississippi State 0, LSU 31
The input that held up was the quarterback change. Leavitt's 6-yard touchdown pass to Malik Elzy with 31 seconds left in the third made it 31-0.
The card's reasons: the total had dropped from 59.5 to 55.5, Taylor was out, and gusts around 27 mph were forecast. The game finished with 31 points, and the Under was never close.
Florida 27, Texas 24
Florida won outright. Texas's last drive ended when M. Graham sacked Manning and forced a fumble with about two minutes left.
The Citadel 0, Texas A&M 41
Texas A&M scored one touchdown in the fourth quarter, Gregory's catch, and stopped at 41.
A&M controlled it, as the card said, and the game ended with 41 points.
Auburn 27, Georgia 24
Auburn never trailed by more than 14 and led most of the day. Byrum Brown's 5-yard run in the third made it 24-14, and McPherson's kick won it outright.
Missouri 3, Ole Miss 31
Chambliss's 5-yard run early in the fourth made it 28-3.
The card's reason was the wind forecast, gusts around 27 mph. The game finished with 34 points.
Alabama 10, Tennessee 26
Tennessee won outright. Bishop's second touchdown, with 3:17 left, made it 26-10.
The card's reasons: the total had dropped from 56.5 to 50.5, and Tennessee was starting a quarterback with one prior start. The game finished with 36.
Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21
Arkansas won outright, and Gilbert's late field goal made it a 10-point margin.
Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13
Castell's pick-six made it 21-13, and T. Bryant intercepted John Mateer again with 23 seconds left.
Cincinnati 42, West Virginia 45
The card's total case was Cincinnati's offense against the West Virginia defense, plus a posted total that had climbed from 61.5 to 63.5.
The total went over with 7:29 left, when Amari Latimer's 3-yard run tied it 35-35. The final total was 87.
Kansas 24, Kansas State 35
Tibbs' touchdown put Kansas State ahead for good and past the number, and Luis Rodriguez's 34-yard field goal with 1:56 left made it 35-24.
The card projected 56 points against a 55.5 total. Tibbs' touchdown made it 56, and the final was 59.
Arizona State 25, Texas Tech 53
Texas Tech was past 15.5 for good before halftime, and Terrance Carter Jr.'s 1-yard run in the fourth made it 53-17.
TCU 17, Baylor 6
TCU won outright. Nate McCashland's 25-yard field goal in the third made it 17-6, and Baylor did not score after halftime.
The card's reasons: the defenses, and a total that had dropped from 51.5 to 49.5. The game finished with 23.
Notre Dame 24, BYU 28
Lyons' touchdown won the game outright.
Oklahoma State 32, Houston 35
Bowick's late touchdown made it a 3-point game.
The card's total case was Houston's offense against the Oklahoma State defense, plus a posted total that had climbed from 57.5 to 62.5.
Bowick's touchdown also made the total 67.
Utah 27, Colorado 24
Moore's late touchdown made it a 3-point game. Colorado had led in the third and never trailed by more than 13.
Charleston Southern 0, Clemson 37
Clemson scored 3 points after halftime. T. Pearman threw two fourth-quarter interceptions for Clemson.
The game finished with 37 points.
Pittsburgh 21, Boston College 27
Dickens' touchdown made it 27-18, and C. Comella intercepted Corey Dailey with 1:40 left.
Virginia 13, SMU 23
The card's reason was a total that had dropped from 53.5 to 51.5. The game finished with 36.
Georgia Tech 24, Virginia Tech 34
Birr's miss kept Virginia Tech's margin at 10 after Plummer's touchdown.
The card's total case was Virginia Tech's offense against the Georgia Tech defense.
Plummer's touchdown with 5:20 left made the total 58.
North Carolina 24, Duke 20
McGill's touchdown and Dopson's interception decided it.
The card's reasons: a total that had dropped from 54.5 to 46.5, and gusts around 30 mph. The game finished with 44.
Florida State 35, Miami 43 (2 overtimes)
Robinson's 75-yard catch forced overtime, and Miami's 8-point win in two extra periods was well inside 20.5.
The card's total case was Miami's offense against the Florida State defense, plus a posted total that had climbed from 53.5 to 56.5.
The total went over in the first overtime, on Robinson's 20-yard catch. The final total was 78.
Elon 7, Stanford 34
The missed extra point and McDowell-Moore's touchdown made it a 27-point game.
The game finished with 41 points.
Louisville 34, Syracuse 26
Syracuse stayed within 8 the whole second half.
The card's total case was Louisville's offense against the Syracuse defense.
Brown's touchdown with 7:34 left made the total 60.
Wake Forest 41, California 7
Barry's 2-yard catch late in the third made it 41-0.
Ohio State 19, Indiana 15
Ohio State's 4-point win covered the 3. The fourth-down stop with 1:07 left kept it there.
Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21
Kleather's kick won the game but left Michigan State inside 7.
Rutgers 37, Maryland 30
Rutgers won outright, and Raymond's touchdown made it a two-score game.
Penn State 18, Michigan 21
The defensive holding call and Sowell's touchdown turned a 10-point deficit into a 3-point loss.
The card's reasons: the defenses, a total that had dropped from 51.5 to 42.5, and gusts around 18 mph. Sowell's touchdown made it 39, still under.
Wisconsin 7, UCLA 17
Woods' touchdown put UCLA past the number, and the defense did the rest.
The card's reasons: the defenses, a total that had dropped from 49.5 to 42.5, and UCLA's starting quarterback lost for the season. The game finished with 24.
Nebraska 14, Oregon 17
Nebraska led for most of the night, and Oregon's late touchdown left a 3-point margin.
The card's reasons: the defenses, and Oregon's starting quarterback out with a concussion. The game finished with 31.
Florida Atlantic 24, Army 56
Hellums' three second-quarter touchdowns settled the side before halftime.
The card's total case was Army's offense against the Florida Atlantic defense.
Jake Rendina's 61-yard run early in the third made the total 56. The final total was 80.
Charlotte 38, Temple 31
Charlotte won outright; Harrell's 10-yard run with 8:40 left made it 35-28.
Tulsa 38, Rice 17
Tulsa's 31 straight points, including Jones' late touchdown, turned it into a 21-point win.
Kent State 2, South Florida 29
Seldon's touchdown put USF past the number, and the late safety added to the margin.
The card's reasons: a total that had dropped from 49.5 to 45.5, and gusts around 24 mph. The game finished with 31.
Navy 34, UTSA 38
The fourth-down stop with 10 seconds left kept Navy inside the number.
Will Henderson III's 31-yard run with 8:17 left made the total 58. The final total was 72.
Ball State 32, Bowling Green 31 (overtime)
Ball State won outright on Horton's run and Luster's two-point pass in overtime.
The card's total case was a posted total that had climbed from 44.5 to 46.5.
Luster's touchdown pass at the end of regulation made the total 48. The final total was 63.
Western Michigan 21, Central Michigan 14
The card's reason was the defenses, Western Michigan's especially. Central Michigan's touchdown with 44 seconds left made it 35 total, still well under.
Toledo 34, Eastern Michigan 14
Toledo was past 7 before halftime and Eastern Michigan never got closer than 20 in the second half.
The card's reason was gusts around 25 mph. Toledo was stopped on fourth down at the Eastern Michigan 1 with 1:53 left, and the total stayed at 48.
Akron 14, Miami (OH) 34
Miami was covering from late in the first half on. Myrick's pick-six made it 27-7, and Rodney Nelson's 58-yard run made it 34-14.
The card's total case was Miami (OH)'s offense against the Akron defense.
Nelson's 58-yard run with 13:57 left made the total 48.
Ohio 48, Sacramento State 7
Ohio was past 15.5 before halftime.
Georgia State 22, James Madison 49
JMU was past 9.5 for good in the second quarter and won by 27.
The card's total case was James Madison's offense against the Georgia State defense, plus a posted total that had climbed from 54.5 to 57.5.
George Pettaway's 12-yard run in the third made the total 58. The final total was 71.
Troy 6, Louisiana 33
Anthony Reagan Jr.'s 15-yard run early in the fourth made it 33-6.
The card's reason was gusts around 31 mph. The game finished with 39.
Arkansas State 23, Southern Miss 13
The failed two-point try and the fourth-down stop kept Southern Miss 10 points behind.
Louisiana Tech 24, UL Monroe 0
Bockler's second touchdown put Louisiana Tech past the number.
Northern Illinois 23, Wyoming 41
Hughes' fourth touchdown, early in the fourth, made it 34-17.
UNLV 31, Air Force 41
Medders' touchdown put Air Force ahead to stay.
Nevada 17, North Dakota State 31
The blocked extra point before halftime is why Nevada covered by half a point.
San José State 24, UTEP 11
Viliami Teu's 67-yard run in the third made it 21-0.
The card's reasons: the defenses, a total that had dropped from 52.5 to 45.5, and a questionable SJSU quarterback. The game finished with 35.
New Mexico 21, Hawai'i 10
Hawai'i led 10-0 at the half, and Micah Alejado fumbled at the New Mexico goal line early in the fourth. Even after that, New Mexico won by only 11.
The card's reasons: a total that had dropped from 48.5 to 44.5, and gusts around 32 mph. The game finished with 31.
Washington State 30, Oregon State 48
Hatcher's touchdown left Oregon State half a point short.
Fresno State 23, San Diego State 26
DiLeva's 53-yarder won it outright.
Part 3: Looking forward
No new picks here. These are today's numbers and what the published cards already say. Lines move all week, and every card is graded against the number printed on it.
Follow The Money now measures every line and total from the first consensus number at or after 12:15 a.m. ET Tuesday. Only one number has moved a full point since then, the San Francisco-Atlanta total, so that is the only card where it shows a pick; everywhere else its card shows no side and no total, and its score is the market number split into team points. Cards can be updated before kickoff; each one is graded against the number printed on it when the game starts.
Patriots (4-2) at Bears (4-2), Thu. 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video.
Now: Bears −3, total 50.5; the card, set at Bears −3 and 50.5, reads Patriots 24, Bears 21, so New England +3 and Under 50.5. The reason: The Formula rates New England higher, 1.6 to Chicago's −4.5, so even after 1.75 points of home field it has the Patriots winning by 4.4 in a 43.2-point game.
Steelers (4-2) vs. Saints (2-4), Sun. 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network, Stade de France.
Now: Steelers −3.5, total 44.5; the card, set at Steelers −3.5 and 44.5, reads Steelers 27, Saints 22, so Pittsburgh −3.5 and Over 44.5. The reason: at a neutral site with no home field, The Formula rates Pittsburgh −5.8 and New Orleans −12.2, for Steelers by 6.5 in a 49.6-point game.
49ers (6-0) at Falcons (2-4), 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
Now: 49ers −3.5, total 50.5; the card, set at 49ers −3.5 and 50.5, reads 49ers 27, Falcons 22, so San Francisco −3.5 and Under 50.5. The reason: with Monday night's game now counted, The Formula rates San Francisco 8.1 and Atlanta 0.4, for 49ers by 5.9 even after Atlanta's home field, in a 48.5-point game. Follow The Money took the other total, Over 50.5, because the total has risen a full point since early Tuesday, from 49.5.
Browns (4-2) at Titans (1-5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Now: Browns −1.5, total 38.5; the card, set at Browns −1.5 and 38.5, reads Browns 19, Titans 18, so Tennessee +1.5 and Under 38.5. The reason: The Formula has Cleveland by only 0.5, inside the 1.5, in a 36.8-point game. In The Trenches went the other way and took Cleveland −1.5; its card has Tennessee's run game at 3.8 yards a carry, 0.8 below the 4.6 that Cleveland's defense usually gives up.
Colts (2-4) at Vikings (5-0), 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Now: Vikings −6.5, total 41.5; the card, set at Vikings −6.5 and 41.5, reads Vikings 22, Colts 20, so Indianapolis +6.5 and Over 41.5. The reason: The Formula actually rates Indianapolis a shade higher, −5.4 to unbeaten Minnesota's −6.2, and only home field makes it Vikings by 1.
Dolphins (0-5) at Jets (2-4), 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Now: Jets −4.5, total 38.5; the card, set at Jets −4.5 and 39.5, reads Jets 24, Dolphins 16, so New York −4.5 and Over 39.5. The reason: The Formula has the Jets by 7.3 and likes the side, its total of 39.7 sits just above the 39.5, and all five projected scores add up to 40.
Buccaneers (1-5) at Panthers (3-2), 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
Now: Panthers −3.5, total 44.5; the card, set at Panthers −3.5 and 44.5, reads Panthers 28, Buccaneers 20, so Carolina −3.5 and Over 44.5. The reason: The Formula has Carolina by 8.7, and In The Trenches agrees on the side, with Carolina's run game at 4.4 yards a carry, 0.7 more than Tampa Bay's defense usually allows.
Bengals (3-2) at Ravens (4-2), 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
Now: Ravens −3, total 51.5; the card, set at Ravens −2.5 and 51, reads Ravens 28, Bengals 21, so Baltimore −2.5 and Under 51. The reason: The Formula rates Baltimore −0.3 and Cincinnati −6.2, for Ravens by 7.6 with home field in a 47.7-point game.
Giants (3-2-1) at Texans (2-4), 1 p.m. ET, Fox.
Now: Texans −10, total 42.5, the biggest spread of the week; the card, set at Texans −9.5 and 43, reads Texans 28, Giants 19, so New York +9.5 and Over 43. The reason: the averaged score is a nine-point Houston win, half a point inside the 9.5, even though The Formula has Houston by 9.6 in a 46.9-point game. In The Trenches likes the Giants +9.5, with Houston's run game at 3.6 yards a carry, 1.6 below what the Giants' defense usually gives up.
Broncos (4-2) at Cardinals (2-4), 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS.
Now: Broncos −4.5, total 43.5; the card, set at Broncos −4.5 and 43.5, reads Broncos 24, Cardinals 21, so Arizona +4.5 and Over 43.5. The reason: The Formula rates Denver −3.2 and Arizona −7.3, and after Arizona's home field that is Broncos by only 2.3, well inside the 4.5.
Packers (4-2) at Lions (3-2), 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox.
Now: Lions −3, total 53.5, the highest total of the week; the card, set at Lions −3 and 53.5, reads Packers 27, Lions 26, so Green Bay +3 and Under 53.5. The reason: The Formula has Green Bay winning outright by 1.2, rating the Packers −2 and the Lions −5, in a 52.2-point game. In The Trenches took the other side, Detroit −3.
Rams (2-4) at Raiders (3-3), 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox.
Now: Rams −4.5, total 47.5; the card, set at Rams −4.5 and 47.5, reads Rams 29, Raiders 20, so Los Angeles −4.5 and Over 47.5. The reason: The Formula rates the Rams 4.1 and the Raiders −8.2, for Rams by 10.6 even after Las Vegas' home field, and In The Trenches agrees on the side.
Chiefs (5-0) at Seahawks (3-3), Sun. 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.
Now: Seahawks −2.5, total 42.5; the card, set at Seahawks −2.5 and 42.5, reads Seahawks 23, Chiefs 22, so Kansas City +2.5 and Over 42.5. The reason: The Formula rates Kansas City higher, 4.1 to 3, and only Seattle's home field makes it Seahawks by 0.6.
Cowboys (2-4) at Eagles (2-4), Mon. Oct. 26, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC.
Now: Cowboys −4.5, total 44.5; the card, set at Cowboys −4.5 and 44.5, reads Cowboys 23, Eagles 22, so Philadelphia +4.5 and Over 44.5. The reason: The Formula rates Philadelphia −7.4 and Dallas −5.7, and with home field it has the Eagles by 0.1. In The Trenches took the other side, Dallas −4.5.
Twelve college games are played Tuesday through Friday, starting tonight. Each has a published card on its game page. The Saturday slate follows.
California (3-4) at No. 23 SMU (5-1), noon ET, CW.
Now: SMU −19.5, total 53.5; the card, set at SMU −18.5 and 53.5, reads SMU 35, California 18, so California +18.5 and Under 53.5. The reason: the four card scores run from SMU by 14 to SMU by 22, three of the four have SMU winning by less than 18.5, and three of the four project fewer than 53.5 points.
No. 18 LSU (5-2) at Auburn (4-2), noon ET, ABC.
Now: LSU −7.5, total 50.5; the card, set at LSU −7 and 50.5, reads LSU 28, Auburn 22, so Auburn +7 and Under 50.5. The reason: the four card scores run from LSU by 6 to LSU by 7, two of the four have LSU winning by less than 7 (two land exactly on it), and two of the four project fewer than 50.5 points.
No. 6 Indiana (6-1) at Michigan (4-2), noon ET, Fox.
Now: Indiana −7, total 41.5; the card, set at Indiana −7 and 41.5, reads Indiana 27, Michigan 17, so Indiana −7 and Over 41.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Indiana by 7 to Indiana by 13, three of the four have Indiana winning by more than 7 (one lands exactly on it), and three of the four project more than 41.5 points.
No. 8 Texas Tech (6-0) at Cincinnati (4-2), noon ET, FS1.
Now: Texas Tech −10.5, total 56.5; the card, set at Texas Tech −11.5 and 56.5, reads Texas Tech 35, Cincinnati 23, so Texas Tech −11.5 and Over 56.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Texas Tech by 9 to Texas Tech by 14, one of the four has Texas Tech winning by more than 11.5, and three of the four project more than 56.5 points; the average, Texas Tech by 12, gets to Texas Tech −11.5 even though most single cards do not.
Pittsburgh (5-2) at No. 1 Miami (6-0), noon ET, ESPN.
Now: Miami −20.5, total 50.5; the card, set at Miami −22.5 and 50.5, reads Miami 37, Pittsburgh 18, so Pittsburgh +22.5 and Over 50.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Miami by 16 to Miami by 23, three of the four have Miami winning by less than 22.5, and all four project more than 50.5 points.
Rice (1-6) at Florida Atlantic (4-2), noon ET, ESPNU.
Now: Florida Atlantic −7.5, total 53.5; the card, set at Florida Atlantic −10 and 55.5, reads Florida Atlantic 33, Rice 24, so Rice +10 and Over 55.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Florida Atlantic by 6 to Florida Atlantic by 11, two of the four have Florida Atlantic winning by less than 10 (one lands exactly on it), and all four project more than 55.5 points.
Rutgers (2-4) at No. 24 Northwestern (5-1), noon ET, Peacock.
Now: Northwestern −16.5, total 58.5; the card, set at Northwestern −16.5 and 58.5, reads Northwestern 38, Rutgers 20, so Northwestern −16.5 and Under 58.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Northwestern by 16 to Northwestern by 21, three of the four have Northwestern winning by more than 16.5, and two of the four project fewer than 58.5 points.
West Virginia (4-3) at TCU (3-3), noon ET, ESPN2.
Now: TCU −8.5, total 56.5; the card, set at TCU −8.5 and 56.5, reads TCU 34, West Virginia 22, so TCU −8.5 and Under 56.5. The reason: the four card scores run from TCU by 9 to TCU by 16, all four have TCU winning by more than 8.5, and three of the four project fewer than 56.5 points.
Western Michigan (5-2) at Toledo (5-2), noon ET, CBSSN.
Now: Toledo −3, total 45.5; the card, set at Toledo −3.5 and 45.5, reads Toledo 26, Western Michigan 22, so Toledo −3.5 and Over 45.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Toledo by 1 to Toledo by 6, three of the four have Toledo winning by more than 3.5, and all four project more than 45.5 points.
Akron (1-6) at Kent State (2-5), 1 p.m. ET, ESPN+.
Now: Kent State −3, total 46.5; the card, set at Kent State −3 and 45.5, reads Kent State 26, Akron 22, so Kent State −3 and Over 45.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Kent State by 2 to Kent State by 9, two of the four have Kent State winning by more than 3 (one lands exactly on it), and three of the four project more than 45.5 points.
Baylor (4-2) at Kansas (2-4), 1 p.m. ET, TNT.
Now: Baylor −3, total 53.5; the card, set at Baylor −1.5 and 54.5, reads Baylor 28, Kansas 27, so Kansas +1.5 and Over 54.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Kansas by 2 to Baylor by 3, three of the four have Baylor winning by less than 1.5, and two of the four project more than 54.5 points. One note: rounded to whole points, the four scores average Baylor 27, Kansas 27; the card shows Baylor 28, Kansas 27.
Miami (OH) (4-3) at Central Michigan (3-4), 1 p.m. ET, ESPN+.
Now: Miami (OH) −2.5, total 40.5; the card, set at Miami (OH) −2.5 and 42.5, reads Miami (OH) 24, Central Michigan 23, so Central Michigan +2.5 and Over 42.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Central Michigan by 2 to Miami (OH) by 3, three of the four have Miami (OH) winning by less than 2.5, and all four project more than 42.5 points. One note: rounded to whole points, the four scores average Miami (OH) 23, Central Michigan 23; the card shows Miami (OH) 24, Central Michigan 23.
Oregon (4-2) at Illinois (3-3), 3 p.m. ET, BTN.
Now: Oregon −8.5, total 50.5; the card, set at Oregon −10.5 and 51.5, reads Oregon 33, Illinois 23, so Illinois +10.5 and Over 51.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Oregon by 8 to Oregon by 11, three of the four have Oregon winning by less than 10.5, and all four project more than 51.5 points.
Boston College (3-3) at Georgia Tech (2-4), 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network.
Now: Georgia Tech −4, total 49.5; the card, set at Georgia Tech −5.5 and 49.5, reads Georgia Tech 28, Boston College 21, so Georgia Tech −5.5 and Under 49.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Georgia Tech by 5 to Georgia Tech by 9, three of the four have Georgia Tech winning by more than 5.5, and two of the four project fewer than 49.5 points.
Bowling Green (2-5) at Buffalo (4-3), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+.
Now: Buffalo −3.5, total 44.5; the card, set at Buffalo −4 and 44.5, reads Buffalo 27, Bowling Green 20, so Buffalo −4 and Over 44.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Buffalo by 4 to Buffalo by 9, three of the four have Buffalo winning by more than 4 (one lands exactly on it), and three of the four project more than 44.5 points.
Hawai'i (1-6) at Northern Illinois (0-6), 3:30 p.m. ET, MW+.
Now: Hawai'i −4.5, total 47.5; the card, set at Hawai'i −4.5 and 44.5, reads Hawai'i 23, Northern Illinois 21, so Northern Illinois +4.5 and Under 44.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Northern Illinois by 2 to Hawai'i by 5, two of the four have Hawai'i winning by less than 4.5, and one of the four projects fewer than 44.5 points; the averaged total of 44 gets to the Under even though most single cards do not.
Michigan State (2-5) at No. 9 UCLA (6-0), 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
Now: UCLA −14, total 44.5; the card, set at UCLA −14 and 46.5, reads UCLA 31, Michigan State 18, so Michigan State +14 and Over 46.5. The reason: the four card scores run from UCLA by 10 to UCLA by 18, one of the four has UCLA winning by less than 14 (two land exactly on it), and three of the four project more than 46.5 points; the average, UCLA by 13, gets to Michigan State +14 even though most single cards do not. One note: rounded to whole points, the four scores average UCLA 31, Michigan State 17; the card shows UCLA 31, Michigan State 18.
No. 11 Tennessee (6-1) at South Carolina (3-3), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Now: South Carolina −2.5, total 50.5; the card, set at Tennessee −1.5 and 50.5, reads Tennessee 28, South Carolina 26, so Tennessee −1.5 and Over 50.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Tennessee by 1 to Tennessee by 3, two of the four have Tennessee winning by more than 1.5, and all four project more than 50.5 points.
No. 15 Iowa (5-1) at Minnesota (4-2), 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1.
Now: Iowa −7, total 40.5; the card, set at Iowa −7 and 41.5, reads Iowa 28, Minnesota 18, so Iowa −7 and Over 41.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Iowa by 7 to Iowa by 15, three of the four have Iowa winning by more than 7 (one lands exactly on it), and three of the four project more than 41.5 points.
No. 2 BYU (6-0) at UCF (3-3), 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox.
Now: BYU −6.5, total 43.5; the card, set at BYU −6.5 and 44.5, reads BYU 28, UCF 21, so BYU −6.5 and Over 44.5. The reason: the four card scores run from BYU by 4 to BYU by 9, three of the four have BYU winning by more than 6.5, and all four project more than 44.5 points.
North Texas (4-2) at Navy (2-4), 3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN.
Now: North Texas −2.5, total 61.5; the card, set at North Texas −2.5 and 62.5, reads North Texas 34, Navy 30, so North Texas −2.5 and Over 62.5. The reason: the four card scores run from North Texas by 3 to North Texas by 5, all four have North Texas winning by more than 2.5, and all four project more than 62.5 points.
Oklahoma (3-3) at Mississippi State (4-2), 3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network.
Now: Oklahoma −4, total 44.5; the card, set at Oklahoma −2.5 and 46.5, reads Oklahoma 25, Mississippi State 24, so Mississippi State +2.5 and Over 46.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Mississippi State by 2 to Oklahoma by 4, two of the four have Oklahoma winning by less than 2.5, and all four project more than 46.5 points.
Sacramento State (1-6) at Ball State (2-5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+.
Now: Ball State −14.5, total 51.5; the card, set at Ball State −11.5 and 51.5, reads Ball State 32, Sacramento State 22, so Sacramento State +11.5 and Over 51.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Ball State by 7 to Ball State by 12, three of the four have Ball State winning by less than 11.5, and all four project more than 51.5 points.
Texas A&M (4-3) at No. 13 Alabama (5-2), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC.
Now: Alabama −14, total 50.5; the card, set at Alabama −14.5 and 51.5, reads Alabama 33, Texas A&M 20, so Texas A&M +14.5 and Over 51.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Alabama by 11 to Alabama by 14, all four have Alabama winning by less than 14.5, and all four project more than 51.5 points.
Kansas State (4-2) at Arizona State (3-3), 3:45 p.m. ET, ESPN2.
Now: Kansas State −3.5, total 56.5; the card, set at Kansas State −3.5 and 56.5, reads Kansas State 32, Arizona State 27, so Kansas State −3.5 and Over 56.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Kansas State by 3 to Kansas State by 5, three of the four have Kansas State winning by more than 3.5, and all four project more than 56.5 points.
Eastern Michigan (4-4) at Ohio (5-2), 4 p.m. ET, ESPNU.
Now: Ohio −12.5, total 48.5; the card, set at Ohio −10.5 and 49.5, reads Ohio 31, Eastern Michigan 19, so Ohio −10.5 and Over 49.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Ohio by 10 to Ohio by 16, two of the four have Ohio winning by more than 10.5, and all four project more than 49.5 points.
UL Monroe (0-6) at Troy (3-3), 4 p.m. ET, ESPN+.
Now: Troy −14.5, total 51.5; the card, set at Troy −17.5 and 50.5, reads Troy 36, UL Monroe 18, so Troy −17.5 and Over 50.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Troy by 16 to Troy by 20, three of the four have Troy winning by more than 17.5, and all four project more than 50.5 points.
Louisiana (5-2) at Southern Miss (1-5), 5 p.m. ET, ESPN+.
Now: Louisiana −10, total 52.5; the card, set at Louisiana −11.5 and 52.5, reads Louisiana 31, Southern Miss 22, so Southern Miss +11.5 and Over 52.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Louisiana by 6 to Louisiana by 11, all four have Louisiana winning by less than 11.5, and three of the four project more than 52.5 points.
Old Dominion (2-5) at Louisiana Tech (4-2), 5 p.m. ET, ESPN+.
Now: Louisiana Tech −12.5, total 46.5; the card, set at Louisiana Tech −10.5 and 44.5, reads Louisiana Tech 30, Old Dominion 18, so Louisiana Tech −10.5 and Over 44.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Louisiana Tech by 11 to Louisiana Tech by 15, all four have Louisiana Tech winning by more than 10.5, and all four project more than 44.5 points.
San José State (4-3) at Nevada (2-4), 5 p.m. ET, MW+.
Now: Nevada −5.5, total 46.5; the card, set at Nevada −5.5 and 45.5, reads Nevada 26, San José State 20, so Nevada −5.5 and Over 45.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Nevada by 5 to Nevada by 9, three of the four have Nevada winning by more than 5.5, and three of the four project more than 45.5 points.
No. 21 Boise State (5-1) at Washington State (1-6), 6 p.m. ET, USA Net.
Now: Boise State −13.5, total 51.5; the card, set at Boise State −12.5 and 50.5, reads Boise State 31, Washington State 20, so Washington State +12.5 and Over 50.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Boise State by 8 to Boise State by 15, two of the four have Boise State winning by less than 12.5, and three of the four project more than 50.5 points.
San Diego State (3-4) at Colorado State (2-4), 6:30 p.m. ET, CW.
Now: San Diego State −1.5, total 63.5; the card, set at San Diego State −3 and 61.5, reads San Diego State 32, Colorado State 31, so Colorado State +3 and Over 61.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Colorado State by 1 to San Diego State by 3, three of the four have San Diego State winning by less than 3 (one lands exactly on it), and two of the four project more than 61.5 points.
Colorado (2-4) at Oklahoma State (4-2), 7 p.m. ET, FS1.
Now: Oklahoma State −13.5, total 55.5; the card, set at Oklahoma State −14 and 54.5, reads Oklahoma State 31, Colorado 21, so Colorado +14 and Under 54.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Oklahoma State by 4 to Oklahoma State by 14, three of the four have Oklahoma State winning by less than 14 (one lands exactly on it), and all four project fewer than 54.5 points.
Georgia State (4-2) at Arkansas State (3-4), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+.
Now: Georgia State −2.5, total 58.5; the card, set at Georgia State −2.5 and 56.5, reads Georgia State 30, Arkansas State 29, so Arkansas State +2.5 and Over 56.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Arkansas State by 1 to Georgia State by 3, three of the four have Georgia State winning by less than 2.5, and all four project more than 56.5 points. One note: rounded to whole points, the four scores average Georgia State 29, Arkansas State 29; the card shows Georgia State 30, Arkansas State 29.
Virginia Tech (5-2) at Clemson (4-2), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Now: Clemson −2.5, total 49.5; the card, set at Clemson −2.5 and 49.5, reads Clemson 27, Virginia Tech 24, so Clemson −2.5 and Over 49.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Clemson by 2 to Clemson by 4, two of the four have Clemson winning by more than 2.5, and all four project more than 49.5 points.
Iowa State (3-3) at No. 25 Arizona (5-1), 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2.
Now: Arizona −10, total 50.5; the card, set at Arizona −10.5 and 50.5, reads Arizona 30, Iowa State 21, so Iowa State +10.5 and Over 50.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Arizona by 7 to Arizona by 11, two of the four have Arizona winning by less than 10.5, and all four project more than 50.5 points.
No. 16 USC (6-1) at Wisconsin (4-2), 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
Now: USC −3, total 49.5; the card, set at USC −2.5 and 49.5, reads USC 26, Wisconsin 25, so Wisconsin +2.5 and Over 49.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Wisconsin by 2 to USC by 3, three of the four have USC winning by less than 2.5, and all four project more than 49.5 points.
No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1) at No. 19 Texas (4-2), 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC.
Now: Texas −3, total 53.5; the card, set at Texas −3.5 and 52.5, reads Texas 29, Ole Miss 25, so Texas −3.5 and Over 52.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Texas by 2 to Texas by 7, two of the four have Texas winning by more than 3.5, and all four project more than 52.5 points.
Syracuse (2-4) at North Carolina (4-2), 7:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network.
Now: North Carolina −7.5, total 46.5; the card, set at North Carolina −9.5 and 45.5, reads North Carolina 29, Syracuse 19, so North Carolina −9.5 and Over 45.5. The reason: the four card scores run from North Carolina by 9 to North Carolina by 10, three of the four have North Carolina winning by more than 9.5, and all four project more than 45.5 points.
Utah State (2-4) at Texas State (3-3), 7:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN.
Now: Texas State −12.5, total 60.5; the card, set at Texas State −11.5 and 58.5, reads Texas State 34, Utah State 23, so Utah State +11.5 and Under 58.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Texas State by 9 to Texas State by 14, two of the four have Texas State winning by less than 11.5, and three of the four project fewer than 58.5 points.
Vanderbilt (3-4) at No. 12 Kentucky (6-1), 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network.
Now: Kentucky −10.5, total 51.5; the card, set at Kentucky −11.5 and 51.5, reads Kentucky 33, Vanderbilt 22, so Vanderbilt +11.5 and Over 51.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Kentucky by 3 to Kentucky by 16, one of the four has Kentucky winning by less than 11.5, and all four project more than 51.5 points; the average, Kentucky by 11, gets to Vanderbilt +11.5 even though most single cards do not.
UTSA (6-1) at Tulane (3-3), 8 p.m. ET, ESPNU.
Now: UTSA −2.5, total 51.5; the card, set at UTSA −3 and 51.5, reads Tulane 26, UTSA 25, so Tulane +3 and Under 51.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Tulane by 5 to UTSA by 3, three of the four have UTSA winning by less than 3 (one lands exactly on it), and three of the four project fewer than 51.5 points.
North Dakota State (6-1) at New Mexico (5-1), 10 p.m. ET, CW.
Now: New Mexico −4.5, total 41.5; the card, set at New Mexico −4 and 42.5, reads New Mexico 26, North Dakota State 19, so New Mexico −4 and Over 42.5. The reason: the four card scores run from New Mexico by 4 to New Mexico by 9, three of the four have New Mexico winning by more than 4 (one lands exactly on it), and three of the four project more than 42.5 points.
No. 14 Houston (6-1) at No. 10 Utah (6-0), 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN.
Now: Utah −6.5, total 56.5; the card, set at Utah −6.5 and 56.5, reads Utah 34, Houston 25, so Utah −6.5 and Over 56.5. The reason: the four card scores run from Utah by 4 to Utah by 16, three of the four have Utah winning by more than 6.5, and three of the four project more than 56.5 points.
Packers at Lions.
Lions −3 with a 53.5 total, the highest total on the NFL board. The card has it Packers 27, Lions 26, a spread a single field goal decides, and In The Trenches took the other side, Detroit −3.
Patriots at Bears.
Bears −3, total 50.5, on a Thursday night. New England's last game was decided by a half-point, on the Jets' 36-yard field goal with 32 seconds left (see Part 1).
San Diego State at Colorado State.
San Diego State −1.5, total 63.5, the tightest spread and the highest total on the college Saturday board. San Diego State's last game was won by a 53-yard field goal with 57 seconds left (see Part 1).