Carolina just walked into Philadelphia and threw a Rocky-themed party in the end zone. Now it comes home to face an undrafted rookie quarterback. I'm laying the points and I'm not apologizing.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-2), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on Fox at Bank of America Stadium. The consensus has Carolina −3.5 with a total of 44.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: Carolina Panthers −3.5, Over 44.5, and a final of Panthers 28, Buccaneers 20.
Why Carolina? The Formula rates the Panthers at −0.6 and the Bucs at −7.5. Add 1.75 for home field and it's Carolina by 8.7. You're laying 3.5. That's a five-point gap between the number and The Formula's projection, and The Formula likes the side. In The Trenches likes it too, and the trenches are the story. Carolina runs for 4.4 yards a carry against a Tampa defense allowing 3.7, but more importantly, Tampa Bay's blockers allow sacks on 10.2% of dropbacks. Jalon Daniels, who made his third career start for the injured Baker Mayfield last week, threw two fourth-quarter interceptions against Pittsburgh. Derrick Brown and Jaelan Phillips will be waiting.
The caveat: every one of Tampa's five losses has been by seven points or fewer. These Bucs hang around. Chase McLaughlin is 14-for-14 on field goals, so a late kick can turn a Carolina win by six into a sweat.
Why the Over? The Formula's number is 48.3, and it likes the Over 44.5 outright. My final adds up to 48. Carolina just put up 25 in Philadelphia, and its kicker hasn't missed a field goal all season. Tampa Bay runs for 4.9 yards a carry against a Carolina defense allowing 5.0, so the Bucs can move the ball too, even if their drives keep ending in field goals.
Now the room, and these two can't stand each other this week. The Formula has Panthers 29, Bucs 20, a nine-point win and 49 points. Follow The Money makes no pick, but its market split is Panthers 24, Bucs 21, a three-point game with 45 points.
The Formula went first: "Twenty-one for the Bucs? Against this pass rush, with a rookie who just threw two late interceptions? You keep giving Tampa too much credit."
Follow The Money was ready: "Every one of their losses has been close, pal. These Bucs hang around, and you've got Carolina pulling away like it's a scrimmage."
Both have a point. Neither will admit it. Next Man Up and Letdown Watch both have the 29-20 score and stayed quiet. In The Trenches, which also likes Carolina −3.5, said it'll be over by the fourth quarter and asked everyone to leave the Bucs alone.
Bottom of the card: a better team at home, a rookie quarterback facing a pass rush that should feast, and a number that's too short. Lay the 3.5 and ride the Over.
Panthers 28, Buccaneers 20. Panthers cover the 3.5. Over 44.5.