The best team in this game is also the one flying cross-country on a short week. I'm laying the points anyway, and I'll tell you why.
San Francisco 49ers (6-0) at Atlanta Falcons (2-4), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on Fox at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The consensus has San Francisco −3.5 with a total of 50.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: San Francisco 49ers −3.5, Under 50.5, and a final of 49ers 27, Falcons 22.
Why the 49ers? The Formula rates San Francisco at 8.1 and Atlanta at 0.4. Even after giving the Falcons 1.75 for home field, that's 49ers by 5.9. You're laying 3.5. Atlanta is 0-3 at home, and its last two games brought an overtime loss to Baltimore, in which Michael Penix Jr. left with a rib injury, and a 31-7 hole against Chicago. San Francisco, meanwhile, protects its quarterback like a vault. The 49ers allow sacks on 2.9% of dropbacks. Atlanta allows them on 8.8%, and Chicago just sacked Penix five times.
The caveats, because I don't hide the ugly parts: the 49ers beat Washington 23-17 on Monday night and now travel to Atlanta on a short week, and a six-point win over a 1-4-1 team at home was not exactly a statement. Also, the Falcons run for 5.2 yards a carry. If Bijan Robinson gets more than nine carries this time, Atlanta can shorten the game.
Why the Under? The Formula's number is 48.5, and my final adds up to 49. That's a point and a half short of 50.5. San Francisco has allowed 110 points in six games. Both teams' run defenses are stingy, 3.7 yards a carry allowed by San Francisco and 3.8 by Atlanta, and the 49ers can grind clock with Christian McCaffrey.
The room agreed on the winner, and that's where the peace ended. The Formula, Next Man Up and Letdown Watch all have 49ers 27, Falcons 21, and In The Trenches passed on a pick and borrowed that score. Follow The Money's market split is 49ers 27, Falcons 24, and it is the only one in the room that likes the Over 50.5, because the total has climbed a full point since it opened.
Of course, The Formula still found one: "Twenty-four for Atlanta? Against this defense? Did you watch a different Falcons team than I did?"
Follow The Money didn't even look up: "This week I'm on the Over and you're on the Under. Same game, opposite sides. We'll see who's still talking on Monday."
Everybody else stayed out of it.
Bottom of the card: a better, cleaner team getting a short number against a club that can't win at home yet. Lay it and take the Under.
49ers 27, Falcons 22. 49ers cover the 3.5. Under 50.5.