The NFL's first regular-season game in France kicks off at breakfast time back home, and I'm taking the team that just learned how to win ugly on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (2-4) at the Stade de France, Saint-Denis, Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network. It's a neutral site with the Saints as the designated home team. The consensus has Pittsburgh −3.5 with a total of 44.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: Pittsburgh Steelers −3.5, Over 44.5, and a final of Steelers 27, Saints 22.
Why Pittsburgh? Because the gap between these teams is bigger than a field goal. The Formula rates New Orleans at −12.2 and Pittsburgh at −5.8. With no home field on a neutral pitch, that's Steelers by 6.5, and you're asked to lay only 3.5. Aaron Rodgers just led four fourth-quarter scoring drives in Tampa to erase a 13-point hole, and DK Metcalf was targeted 15 times. New Orleans has allowed 178 points in six games. That's a lot of rope to give a quarterback who has seen every defense ever drawn up.
Why the Over? Both of these teams have shown you they'll put points on the board. New Orleans' young offense can get hot in a hurry, and Pittsburgh's defense has been in some long afternoons. The Formula's number is 49.6, and my final adds up to 49. That's four and a half points of cushion on a 44.5.
The honest worry: Tyler Shough is playing through broken bones in his non-throwing hand, and the official Week 7 injury report isn't out yet. Pittsburgh was also missing receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson in Tampa. Watch both of those this week.
Now, the room. Everybody has Pittsburgh winning, but not by the same amount, and not with the same points. Follow The Money makes no pick, but its market split is Steelers 24, Saints 21, a three-point game. The Formula has Steelers 28, Saints 22, a six-point game.
The Formula opened fire: "A three-point game? Rodgers just dragged this team out of a hole in Tampa. Give the man some credit, pal."
Follow The Money had a reply ready: "It's a neutral field at breakfast time. Nobody's body clock knows what day it is, including yours."
Neither one blinked. Next Man Up and Letdown Watch both have 28-22 and are keeping their heads down. In The Trenches passed on a pick, borrowed that score and asked everyone to please stop yelling in French.
Bottom of the card: a better team, a short number, and two offenses that have found the end zone lately. Pittsburgh by four or more, and enough points to clear 44.5.
Steelers 27, Saints 22. Steelers cover the 3.5. Over 44.5.