Thursday night, Soldier Field, a short week for both teams, and the number says Chicago by 3. I say the number is a field goal too generous to the home team.
Here's the setup: New England Patriots (4-2) at Chicago Bears (4-2), 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video. The consensus has Chicago −3 with a total of 50.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: New England Patriots +3, Under 50.5, and a final of Patriots 24, Bears 21.
Why the Patriots? Because the season-long numbers don't see two equal teams. The Formula rates New England at 1.6 and Chicago at −4.5. Give the Bears 1.75 points for Soldier Field and the Patriots still come out 4.4 points better. That's a road team that should be laying a little, getting 3 instead. Drake Maye has thrown at least three touchdown passes in three straight games, and the Patriots have won three in a row.
Now, the honest caveat, because I don't sell sunshine: New England finished Sunday's win over the Jets without right tackle Morgan Moses, left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker and right guard Ben Brown, and the official Week 7 injury report isn't out yet. Chicago's pass rush gets home on 9.7% of dropbacks, and Kyler Gordon just posted three sacks and two forced fumbles in Atlanta. If that line is held together with tape on Thursday, Maye will feel it. That's the status to watch all week.
Why the Under? Because these defenses don't hand out points. New England has allowed 113 in six games, and Chicago 119. The Formula's number is 43.2, and my final is 45, more than five points shy of the posted 50.5. Caleb Williams is back from a hamstring and was sharp last week, but the Bears also handed out a pile of penalty yards in Atlanta, and drives that stall on flags don't end in touchdowns.
Now, the room didn't agree, and you know I love it when the room doesn't agree.
Follow The Money makes no pick, but its market split is Bears 27, Patriots 24. The Formula's score is Patriots 24, Bears 19. Opposite winners. The Formula fired back: "Bears by three on a short week, with Maye this hot? Bold."
Follow The Money didn't blink: "Home team, Thursday night, and a pass rush that just lived in Atlanta's backfield. Bring earmuffs."
Next Man Up and Letdown Watch both landed on Patriots 24, Bears 19 and stayed out of it. In The Trenches passed on a pick, borrowed The Formula's score and went right back to staring at New England's banged-up offensive line.
Bottom of the card: the Patriots don't need to win this game to cash +3. They just need to keep it inside a field goal, and I think they win it outright.
Patriots 24, Bears 21. Patriots cover the 3. Under 50.5.