Miami is 0-5. The Jets are 2-4. Nobody's buying tickets to this one for the fireworks, but I think there will be just enough of them.
Miami Dolphins (0-5) at New York Jets (2-4), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS at MetLife Stadium. The consensus has the Jets −4.5 with a total of 39.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: New York Jets −4.5, Over 39.5, and a final of Jets 24, Dolphins 16.
Why lay it with the Jets? Because there's a real gap between these teams. The Formula rates the Jets at −2.8 and Miami at −8.4. Add 1.75 for home field and it's Jets by 7.3, nearly three points more than the number, and The Formula likes the side. Miami has scored 70 points in five games. Seventy. That's 14 a game. Malik Willis threw two interceptions and lost a fumble in his last outing against Cincinnati, and he's facing a Jets front with David Bailey, who just stripped the ball loose in Foxborough.
The matchup I'm counting on: Miami's pass rush gets home on just 2.8% of dropbacks. The Jets allow sacks on 9.7% of theirs, which is usually a problem, but against the quietest rush in this matchup, Geno Smith should have time. He threw for 252 yards last week.
The honest caveat: Miami runs for 5.0 yards a carry and the Jets allow 4.3. If Ollie Gordon II gets going, this gets closer than I'd like. And the Dolphins are rested off the bye.
Why the Over? This one's tight, and I'll be straight with you. The Formula's number is 39.7, just above the posted 39.5. Every handicapper in the room now has a 40-point game, right on top of the total. My averaged final lands at Jets 24, Dolphins 16. That's 40, half a point over, so the card says Over. The path is there: Geno Smith should have time against the quietest rush in this matchup, Malik Willis turned it over three times in his last outing, and Miami runs for 5.0 yards a carry against a Jets defense allowing 4.3. I'm fine living on the high side of a half-point.
The room? Pretty peaceful, for once. The Formula, Next Man Up and Letdown Watch all have Jets 24, Dolphins 16, and In The Trenches passed on a pick and borrowed that score. Follow The Money makes no pick either, and its market split is Jets 22, Dolphins 18. Same winner, same 40 points, just split a little differently. Nobody's yelling, which is honestly a little unsettling. Save the smack for the games where they actually disagree.
Bottom of the card: a home team with a real gap in the season-long numbers, a Jets quarterback with time to throw, and just enough points to clear a low total. Lay the 4.5 and take the Over by a hair.
Jets 24, Dolphins 16. Jets cover the 4.5. Over 39.5.