The Rams just lost at home to a team that hadn't won since Week 1. Everybody's jumping off the bandwagon. Good. More room for me.
Los Angeles Rams (2-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-3), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox at Allegiant Stadium. The consensus has the Rams −4.5 with a total of 47.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: Los Angeles Rams −4.5, Over 47.5, and a final of Rams 29, Raiders 20.
Why the Rams? The Formula rates Los Angeles at 4.1 and Las Vegas at −8.2. Give the Raiders 1.75 for home field and it's still Rams by 10.6. You're laying 4.5. That's one of the biggest gaps on this week's card, and The Formula and In The Trenches both like the side. The Rams came into last week leading the NFL in total offense. One ugly afternoon against Arizona doesn't erase that.
And here's the trench angle: Las Vegas runs for 3.3 yards a carry against a Rams defense that allows 4.4. Ashton Jeanty had 22 yards on 10 carries last week. If the Raiders can't run, Kirk Cousins has to throw it 40 times, and that's where the Rams want them.
The caveat: the Raiders can throw. Brock Bowers is a matchup problem for anybody, and Michael Mayer has become a real second option. Las Vegas also kept it to a three-point game against one of the league's best teams. And the Rams may be without kicker Blake Grupe, who hurt his knee last week; the official Week 7 injury report isn't out yet.
Why the Over? The Formula's number is 49.8, and my final adds up to 49. Las Vegas has played six games and allowed 162 points, the same 162 it has scored. That's 27 a game both ways.
Now the room, and Follow The Money is feeling contrary. The Formula has Rams 30, Raiders 20. Follow The Money makes no pick, but its market split is Rams 26, Raiders 22, a four-point game.
Follow The Money led with the obvious: "Laying points with the Rams? After they lost at home to Arizona? You like this team more than its own fans do right now."
The Formula didn't love that, but it had an answer: "One bad afternoon doesn't erase six weeks. And you've got the Raiders keeping it to four with no run game. Let's not pretend."
In The Trenches, which also likes the Rams −4.5, nodded along with The Formula. Next Man Up and Letdown Watch both have 30-20 and are staying out of it.
Bottom of the card: one of the biggest gaps on the card, a Raiders team that can't run, and an offense that should bounce back. Lay the 4.5 and take the Over.
Rams 29, Raiders 20. Rams cover the 4.5. Over 47.5.