An unbeaten team getting points? On Sunday night? Against a champion that just lost twice in five days? Sign me up.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) at Seattle Seahawks (3-3), Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC at Lumen Field. The consensus has Seattle −2.5 with a total of 42.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5, Over 42.5, and a final of Seahawks 23, Chiefs 22.
Why the Chiefs? This is about as close as two teams get on paper. The Formula rates Kansas City at 4.1 and Seattle at 3. Give the Seahawks 1.75 for home field, one of the best in the league, and it's Seattle by 0.6. Less than a point. You're getting 2.5 with the better-rated team. I think Seattle wins a coin flip of a game, and I still want the points.
The matchup that seals it for me: Kansas City runs for 5.9 yards a carry. Seattle allows just 3.5, so something has to give, and the Chiefs have the guy who knows that defense best. Kenneth Walker III was Seattle's Super Bowl LX MVP in February, signed with Kansas City in March, and now leads the NFL in rushing. Meanwhile, Seattle's offense just got Sam Darnold hit 17 times in Denver, and Kansas City allows sacks on only 3.7% of dropbacks.
The caveats: Seattle had extra rest after playing Thursday, Lumen Field is a nightmare for visiting offenses, and Kansas City is banged up at receiver with Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton hurt. Right tackle Jaylon Moore also left last week with a concussion. The official Week 7 injury report isn't out yet. Watch that receiver room.
Why the Over? The Formula's number is 44.8, and my final adds up to 45. That's two and a half points of room on a 42.5. Seattle has scored 148 points in six games. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a target magnet, and Patrick Mahomes looks healthy again. I'll take points in prime time.
The room? Calm. Suspiciously calm. The Formula, Next Man Up and Letdown Watch all landed on Seahawks 23, Chiefs 22, and In The Trenches passed on a pick and borrowed that score. Follow The Money makes no pick either, and its market split is Seahawks 23, Chiefs 20. Everybody has Seattle winning a close one, and nobody is far enough apart to start a fight. I tried to stir something up and they all just nodded.
Fine. A peaceful room is no fun for anybody, so I'll do the arguing myself: Seattle wins it, Kansas City covers it, and I'll be right here afterward collecting compliments.
Bottom of the card: two even teams, a home team laying more than it should, and the NFL's leading rusher returning to the building where he won a Super Bowl MVP. Take the points and the Over, and enjoy the best game of the week.
Seahawks 23, Chiefs 22. Chiefs cover the 2.5. Over 42.5.