Minnesota is unbeaten, rested, and laying 6.5 at home. Everybody loves an unbeaten team. I love the points.
Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-0), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS at U.S. Bank Stadium. The consensus has Minnesota −6.5 with a total of 41.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: Indianapolis Colts +6.5, Over 41.5, and a final of Vikings 22, Colts 20.
Why the Colts? Because the record and the season-long numbers are telling two different stories. The Formula rates Minnesota at −6.2 and Indianapolis at −5.4. Add 1.75 for the Vikings' home field and it's Minnesota by 1. Not 6.5. One point. The Vikings have been winning with defense, 64 points allowed in five games, but their own offense has scored just 109. A team that wins 23-13 doesn't usually blow out anybody.
And the ground game doesn't scream blowout. Minnesota runs for just 4.1 yards a carry, even though Indianapolis allows 5.0. That's not an offense built to bury anybody.
The worry, and I won't hide it: Daniel Jones threw two interceptions last week, and the Colts lost to winless Tennessee after leading 13-0 at halftime. Minnesota's pass rush gets home on 9.9% of dropbacks. Sauce Gardner left with a calf injury, and the official Week 7 injury report isn't out. If Gardner can't go against Justin Jefferson, that's a real problem.
Why the Over? It's 41.5, and my final adds up to 42. The Formula's number is 43. Indianapolis has scored 144 points in six games, and its defense has allowed 164. The Colts bring points, both ways.
Now, the room. The Formula, Next Man Up, Letdown Watch and In The Trenches all landed on Vikings 22, Colts 21, and The Formula and In The Trenches both like the Colts +6.5. Follow The Money makes no pick, but its market split is Vikings 24, Colts 18, a six-point game.
Follow The Money fired first: "You two like the Colts? Against an unbeaten team coming off a bye? Points are not your friend."
The Formula didn't flinch: "An offense that has scored 109 points in five games doesn't scare me. Don't talk to me about points."
In The Trenches decided this was a good time to refill its coffee. Next Man Up asked everybody to keep it down; the Vikings fans are already nervous enough.
Bottom of the card: an unbeaten team that wins close, a number that's too big, and a Colts offense that can score. Take the points and enjoy the sweat.
Vikings 22, Colts 20. Colts cover the 6.5. Over 41.5.