A full field goal in a rivalry game, with a Packers defense that hasn't allowed more than 14 points in three weeks? Thank you, I'll take those.
Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-2), Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox at Ford Field. The consensus has Detroit −3 with a total of 53.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: Green Bay Packers +3, Under 53.5, and a final of Packers 27, Lions 26.
Why Green Bay? The Formula rates Green Bay at −2 and Detroit at −5. Even after giving the Lions 1.75 for home field, that's Packers by 1.2. Not Lions by 3. The Packers getting a field goal, with the better season-long numbers and the hotter defense? That's a gift. Green Bay just held Dallas without a first-half point, intercepted Dak Prescott twice, and won 23-13 despite three dropped touchdown passes.
The caveat, and it's a big one: Green Bay's run game averages 3.2 yards a carry, and Detroit allows 4.4. That's why In The Trenches takes the other side. If Jordan Love has to drop back 40 times into a pass rush that gets home on 9.1% of dropbacks, Aidan Hutchinson could take over. Detroit also comes in rested off the bye.
Why the Under? I'll be honest with you about this one, because it's close. The Formula's own number is 52.2, more than a point below 53.5. My averaged final is Packers 27, Lions 26, which adds up to 53, half a point short, so the card says Under. Green Bay's defense hasn't allowed more than 14 points in three weeks, its last game finished 23-13, and a Packers run game averaging 3.2 yards a carry tends to stall drives. The danger is Detroit: it has scored 164 points in five games, and its last outing was a 45-point explosion in Arizona with seven straight scoring drives. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 151 yards in that one.
Now the room, and it's a rumble. The Formula, Next Man Up and Letdown Watch have Packers 27, Lions 25. The Formula likes Green Bay +3. In The Trenches borrows the same score but likes Detroit −3. And Follow The Money makes no pick, but its market split goes the other way entirely: Lions 28, Packers 25.
The Formula started it: "Lions minus three? Against a defense that hasn't allowed more than 14 points in three weeks? Good luck with that."
In The Trenches snapped back: "Same score as you, and I'm the one who actually looked at the run game. Green Bay can't run, and Hutchinson can't wait."
Follow The Money thought that was hilarious, right up until The Formula turned around: "Don't laugh. You've got Detroit winning and still giving up 25. Pick a lane."
Next Man Up and Letdown Watch, sitting on the same score as The Formula, are quietly enjoying this.
Bottom of the card: the better season-long numbers and the hotter defense, getting a full field goal in a division game. Take the points, and trust that Green Bay defense to keep this one just under the number.
Packers 27, Lions 26. Packers cover the 3. Under 53.5.