Denver keeps winning games it has no business winning. Eventually, that bill comes due, and 4.5 points is a nice place to wait for it.
Denver Broncos (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4), Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET on CBS at State Farm Stadium. The consensus has Denver −4.5 with a total of 43.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: Arizona Cardinals +4.5, Over 43.5, and a final of Broncos 24, Cardinals 21.
Why Arizona? The Formula rates Denver at −3.2 and Arizona at −7.3. Give the Cardinals 1.75 for home field and it's Broncos by 2.3. You're getting 4.5. And look at how Denver won last week: the defense had to bail out a sputtering offense in overtime. Even Sean Payton said 4-2 could easily be 2-4. When the coach says it, I listen.
Arizona, meanwhile, just went into SoFi Stadium having lost four straight and beat the Rams 18-16 on Chad Ryland's sixth field goal as time expired.
The caveats: Denver's defense is legit. The Broncos sacked Darnold five times and hit him 17 times, and they protect Nix well, allowing sacks on just 4.1% of dropbacks. Denver also has extra rest after playing on Thursday. And Arizona hasn't won at home in more than a year. That run has to end sometime, but it hasn't yet.
Why the Over? The Formula's number is 45.3, and my final adds up to 45. That's a point and a half of room on a 43.5. Arizona's defense has allowed 178 points in six games, nearly 30 a game, and the Cardinals have scored 126 themselves. Neither team runs it well, with Denver at 3.6 yards a carry and Arizona at 3.5, but both defenses give up more than that, so somebody's ground game should find some room.
The room? Mostly peaceful. The Formula, Next Man Up and Letdown Watch all landed on Broncos 24, Cardinals 21, and In The Trenches passed on a pick and borrowed that score. Follow The Money makes no pick either, and its market split is Broncos 24, Cardinals 20. One point apart and everybody has Denver winning. Nobody's throwing punches over this one. Follow The Money did ask why everybody else needed that extra Cardinals point, and The Formula said it was a little gift for the home crowd. That's as close to a fight as this room got.
Bottom of the card: a Denver team that wins ugly laying more points than its offense has earned, and an Arizona team that just found its footing. Take the points, take the Over, and hope Ryland's leg is still warm.
Broncos 24, Cardinals 21. Cardinals cover the 4.5. Over 43.5.