Dallas is laying 4.5 points on the road. On Monday night. In Philadelphia. Off a 2-4 start. I've seen braver things, but not many.
Dallas Cowboys (2-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-4), Monday, Oct. 26 at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, ABC and Disney+ at Lincoln Financial Field. The consensus has Dallas −4.5 with a total of 44.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: Philadelphia Eagles +4.5, Over 44.5, and a final of Cowboys 23, Eagles 22.
Why the Eagles? Because once you strip away the names, these teams are dead even. The Formula rates Philadelphia at −7.4 and Dallas at −5.7. Give the Eagles 1.75 for home field and it's Philadelphia by 0.1. A tenth of a point. My averaged final has Dallas winning by one, and you're still getting 4.5. The Formula likes the side, and so do I.
I know what you're thinking: no Jalen Hurts. He's on injured reserve with a blood clot in his calf, Saquon Barkley's hamstring is a question, and Tanner McKee struggled against Carolina. That's real, and the official injury report isn't out yet. But Dallas hasn't exactly earned a road number like this. The Cowboys just got shut out in the first half at Green Bay and threw two interceptions in scoring range.
The caveat: Philadelphia runs for just 3.8 yards a carry against a Dallas defense that allows 4.9, and In The Trenches takes Dallas because of it. Dallas also protects Dak Prescott well, allowing sacks on only 2.8% of dropbacks.
Why the Over? The Formula's number is 46.1, and my final adds up to 45. Dallas has scored 151 and allowed 159 in six games. That's a team whose games tend to have some points in them.
Now the room, and this is the loudest one of the week. The Formula, Next Man Up and Letdown Watch are all on Philadelphia +4.5, and The Formula likes it. In The Trenches likes Dallas −4.5. Follow The Money makes no pick, but its market split is Cowboys 25, Eagles 20.
The Formula opened: "You want to lay 4.5 with Dallas? In Philadelphia? On a Monday night? Explain yourself."
In The Trenches fired back: "Philly can't run, and Dallas doesn't give up sacks. That's the whole game. Points are a foreign language to you."
Then The Formula turned on Follow The Money: "And you, Cowboys by five, in Philadelphia, on Monday night? Bring a helmet."
Follow The Money's reply: "I'll bring two. One's for you." Next Man Up and Letdown Watch, parked right next to The Formula on the Eagles, pretended to check their phones.
Bottom of the card: two even teams, a road team laying more than it's earned, and a Monday night crowd that will be loud. Take the points and the Over.
Cowboys 23, Eagles 22. Eagles cover the 4.5. Over 44.5.