Here's a sentence you don't get to write often: I think the Browns win this game, and I'm still taking the Titans.
Cleveland Browns (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-5), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS at Nissan Stadium. The consensus has Cleveland −1.5 with a total of 38.5 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: Tennessee Titans +1.5, Under 38.5, and a final of Browns 19, Titans 18.
Why take the points with a team I think loses? Because one point is the whole story here. The Formula rates Tennessee at −9.4 and Cleveland at −7.2. Give the Titans 1.75 for home field and it's Browns by 0.5. That's a coin flip with a road team laying a point and a half. When the honest number is half a point, I want the side that gets the hook.
And look at how Cleveland wins. All four Browns victories came down to the final moments. That's a team living on a tightrope, and tightropes snap both ways. Tennessee just won its first game, 26-20 in Indianapolis, with six sacks, three takeaways and a blocked punt for a touchdown. The Titans' defense is real.
Why the Under? Because these offenses haven't earned 38.5. The Formula's number is 36.8, and my final adds up to 37. That's a point and a half of room. Both teams run for just 3.8 yards a carry. I'll admit the risk: both teams just found late points, Cleveland with 10 in the fourth quarter and Tennessee with 20 after halftime, and one special-teams score can wreck a low total. But I'll take two offenses that need four quarters to get going.
Now the fun part, because the room split down the middle on the side. The Formula, Next Man Up and Letdown Watch all have the same 19-18 score, and Follow The Money makes no pick, with a market split a point higher on each side at 20-19. In The Trenches borrows that 19-18 score but likes Cleveland −1.5, the exact opposite side from everyone else.
The Formula jumped first: "You want to lay points on the road with a team that needed a last-second kick to beat a backup quarterback? Bold."
In The Trenches was ready: "Same score as you, opposite side. One of us is a genius and one of us is a comedian, and I'm not the one telling jokes."
Next Man Up tried to change the subject. Letdown Watch reminded everybody that the Titans just threw a party on Broadway, and parties come with mornings after. Follow The Money just smiled.
Bottom of the card: if Cleveland wins a low-scoring game by one, which is exactly what I expect, the Titans still cash and the Under comes in. That's the beauty of a hook.
Browns 19, Titans 18. Titans cover the 1.5. Under 38.5.