Baltimore just lost a game it led 10-0 on a field goal with no time left, and now the Bengals walk in rested. Sounds like a spot to grab the points, right? Wrong. I'm laying them.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on CBS. The consensus has Baltimore −2.5 with a total of 51 (Oct 20, 12:52 UTC). My card: Baltimore Ravens −2.5, Under 51, and a final of Ravens 28, Bengals 21.
Why Baltimore? The Formula rates the Ravens at −0.3 and the Bengals at −6.2, then adds 1.75 for home field: Ravens by 7.6. That's three times the number you're laying. And look at how the Ravens lost in Cleveland: the defense did its job, and the game turned on one Derrick Henry fumble. Henry hadn't lost one all season. I'll take a team that loses like that.
Now, the elephant in the huddle. Lamar Jackson has missed two straight games with an ankle injury, and the official Week 7 injury report isn't out yet. Tyler Huntley has started both of those games, winning in overtime against Atlanta and losing by three in Cleveland. On Monday, coach Jesse Minter said Jackson has made progress but is still day to day, that he could possibly practice Wednesday, and that the team will know a lot more then. Jackson hasn't practiced since he got hurt. Lamar's status is the one to watch all week, and if the news moves this number, you'll want to know before you do anything.
Why the Under? Cincinnati has allowed 109 points in five games. Baltimore's last game finished 13-10. The Formula's number is 47.7, and my final adds up to 49. Both are short of 51. The Bengals can light it up, sure. Joe Burrow spreads the ball around as well as anybody, and Ja'Marr Chase can win any one-on-one. But Cincinnati's run game averages 3.8 yards a carry, and Baltimore allows exactly 3.8. Burrow's going to have to grind for it.
Then the room started throwing elbows. Follow The Money makes no pick, but its market split is Ravens 27, Bengals 24, a three-point game. The Formula has Ravens 28, Bengals 20, an eight-point game.
Follow The Money went straight for the jugular: "Eight points? With Lamar day to day? You've got the Ravens winning a heavyweight fight with one glove."
The Formula shot right back: "And you've got a rested Bengals team hanging around all afternoon. Rest doesn't tackle anybody. Let's not throw a parade."
Next Man Up and Letdown Watch both sit at Ravens 28, Bengals 20 and are pretending not to hear any of this. In The Trenches passed on a pick, borrowed that same score and wisely stayed out of the crossfire.
Bottom of the card: a Ravens defense that has played like a playoff group, a home team with the better season-long numbers, and a short number. Lay it, then watch Wednesday's practice and injury report like a hawk.
Ravens 28, Bengals 21. Ravens cover the 2.5. Under 51.