Good evening, and welcome to the Grounds. I am Prescott Ashby-Lowell, fourth-generation Wahoo, and you'll notice I said "Grounds." Not campus. Never campus. At the University of Virginia, we have the Lawn, the Rotunda and the Grounds, and if you say "campus" within earshot, I will clear my throat in a very disappointed manner.
I keep a leather-bound ledger of every Virginia game, charted in fountain pen, much as Mr. Jefferson charted the weather at Monticello. And this week's entry requires both honesty and a fresh nib.
As Mr. Jefferson would've charted it.
Part 1: A Close Contest in Dallas
SMU beat Virginia 23-13 at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Saturday. We're 4-3 and 2-2 in the ACC. Allow me to record the facts faithfully, for a gentleman's ledger contains no embellishment.
It was a respectable contest for long stretches. Beau Pribula scored our touchdown on a 1-yard run on fourth down in the second quarter, and we led 7-3. Will Bettridge kicked a 47-yard field goal to tie it 10-10 with 25 seconds left before halftime. AP noted that Virginia controlled SMU for long stretches.
But a few large plays changed the afternoon. A 59-yard catch set up an SMU touchdown on fourth-and-1. And at the end of the first half, after time had expired, a roughing-the-passer penalty gave SMU an untimed down. SMU kicked a 45-yard field goal for a 13-10 halftime lead. Bettridge answered with a 43-yarder in the third quarter, making it 16-13, but a 37-yard catch-and-run early in the fourth sealed it.
Pribula went 13 of 22 for 137 yards. We finished with 258 yards. Our defense came in with the ACC's top pass defense and faced the third-best passing offense in the country, and it held SMU to 246 passing yards. It was 57 degrees at kickoff, according to AP, on Virginia's first visit to Texas in 14 years. Delightful weather. Disappointing result.
I'll be candid. AP noted we've been held under 300 yards for three straight games. That's a column in my ledger that needs attention.
Part 2: Friday Evening on the Grounds
Friday, 7 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Duke (4-2) at Virginia (4-3) at Scott Stadium. A Friday night under the lights in Charlottesville. The bow ties are pressed. It's a nationally televised Friday night game on ESPN, the whole country watching Mr. Jefferson's university, and I intend for every one of us in the stands to be wearing orange and blue and our very best manners. This is also our last home game before a trip to Wake Forest, so the Grounds will want to send the Cavaliers off properly.
A Recent History Lesson
Last season, we met Duke twice. In November, Virginia won 34-17 in Durham. Then in December, Duke beat us 27-20 in overtime in the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte. I won't pretend that second one didn't sting. I put down my fountain pen for a week. But Virginia went 11-3 last season and finished first in the ACC regular-season standings. A gentleman remembers both chapters.
An Assessment of the Blue Devils
Duke's defense is excellent, and I'll say so plainly. It allows 16.0 points a game, 19th in FBS, and opponents convert only 29.2% on third down. Nate Sheppard leads the nation in rushing yards per game and has 820 yards and eight touchdowns.
Now, the critique, delivered with impeccable manners.
Duke has lost two straight. A week ago at Georgia Tech, it took a late lead and lost 28-25. Last Saturday at home against North Carolina, it took a 20-17 lead with 4:39 left and lost 24-20. Duke had led, and then Duke had not. Two weeks in a row. And North Carolina's players carried the Victory Bell off the field in Durham.
Duke averages 73.8 penalty yards a game, 123rd in FBS. Virginia averages 49.3, 38th. Mr. Jefferson valued order and discipline. Duke values... flags, apparently.
And Duke's passing game ranks 66th in FBS. Our pass defense ranks 25th.
Our Own Ledger
Pribula has thrown 13 touchdowns and just one interception all season. We're plus-5 in turnover margin, 15th in FBS. Matthew Fobbs-White has four sacks. Jacobie Henderson leads us with 38 tackles. Da'Shawn Martin has five touchdown catches on just 15 receptions.
Our honest entries: we convert 33.0% on third down, 120th in FBS. We score on 74.1% of our red zone trips, 124th. Our run defense allows 152.7 yards a game, 88th, and Sheppard will test it. We also lost 38-7 at Florida State. The ledger is frank, because a ledger that flatters is worthless.
The Evening's Itinerary
As Mr. Jefferson would've charted it, here is the plan for Friday, in four tidy entries. First: contain Sheppard. He's a dual threat, and he caught 11 passes last week, so our linebackers must account for him on every snap. Second: make Duke throw. Its passing game ranks 66th, and our secondary has been the pride of the conference. Third: win the hidden yardage. Duke's penalties have handed opponents field position all season, and we must be disciplined enough to take advantage. Fourth: Pribula must be Pribula. Thirteen touchdowns and one interception is an elegant ratio by any standard, and on a Friday night at Scott Stadium, elegance is precisely what's called for.
A Tour of Two Cities
Charlottesville. Charlottesville was established by an act of the Albemarle County assembly in 1762, and it was home to two U.S. presidents, Thomas Jefferson and James Monroe. Monticello, Jefferson's home, sits three miles southeast of town, and it's a UNESCO World Heritage Site, along with the University's Academical Village. Mr. Jefferson founded the University in 1819, and three presidents, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe, played a part in its founding. He designed the original buildings and the course of study himself. And the Grounds were planned around a library, the Rotunda.
Scott Stadium, built in 1931, is the oldest active FBS football stadium in Virginia. With the hillside seating, it's the most gracious place in the Commonwealth to watch a game.
Durham. Durham is a much larger city, with 283,506 people at the 2020 census. Larger, certainly. But here is how Durham began. In the 19th century, wood-burning steam locomotives had to stop frequently for wood and water, and the new North Carolina Railroad needed a depot between Raleigh and Hillsborough. So, a railway depot was established in 1849. Durham, my friends, exists because a train needed a drink of water. Charlottesville exists because the Commonwealth decided it should. Mr. Jefferson would have charted the difference.
And the name Blue Devils comes from the French Alpine light infantry of World War I, "les Diables Bleus." So Duke is named for French mountain soldiers. Durham, I'll note, sits nowhere near the Alps. I admire the ambition.
The Final Entry
Here is my assessment, in fountain pen. Duke has a superb defense and a powerful running back, but a habit of losing late leads and an excess of penalties. Virginia has a quarterback who protects the ball, a top-25 pass defense, a turnover margin that ranks 15th and a home crowd on a Friday night. If our offense finally finds its footing on third down, the final entry in tonight's ledger will be written in orange and blue.
Wahoowa, and good evening.
My call: Virginia Cavaliers 25, Duke Blue Devils 23.