Let me begin with a correction, because I'm a journalist and corrections are a sacred duty.
Last week I wrote, in my notebook, that Northwestern would win at Michigan State by double digits. Northwestern won by three, on a field goal with two seconds left. My prediction was therefore incorrect in its margin but correct in its conclusion, which, as any data journalist will tell you, is the most satisfying kind of wrong.
(Footnote: I was right.)
(Footnote to the footnote: mostly.)
I'm Ezra Lindqvist. I studied the craft a short walk from Lake Michigan, and I fact-check coaches in real time from the stands. My seatmates have asked me to stop. I have declined. Let's report.
Part 1: The Kicker Files
Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21, Saturday, Oct. 17, at Spartan Stadium.
The lede writes itself: Jackson Kleather kicked three field goals, including a 34-yarder with two seconds left, and No. 25 Northwestern rallied from eight points down in the fourth quarter to win on the road.
But the story, as always, is in the details. Kleather opened the scoring with a 39-yarder. Michigan State answered with a 3-yard quarterback run on fourth-and-1. Caleb Komolafe ran 10 yards for a touchdown to give us a 10-7 lead, and then the Spartans blocked a Kleather field goal and scored with 47 seconds left in the half. 14-10. Kleather's 37-yarder in the third made it 14-13, and then Michigan State hit a 53-yard touchdown pass early in the fourth. 21-13.
Here's where our quarterback, Aidan Chiles, took over. Chiles, who started 20 games for Michigan State the previous two seasons before transferring here, ran in from a yard out with 7:24 left, then threw the two-point conversion to Alex Honig. 21-21.
And then the play that deserves its own front page: Matthew Smith blocked a 33-yard Michigan State field goal attempt. Chiles drove us 64 yards in eight plays, and Kleather did the rest.
(Footnote: The AP reports Chiles is one of four former Michigan State quarterbacks starting elsewhere this season and the third to face the Spartans. I have no further comment. I just think it's interesting.)
The Data Desk
Chiles completed 18 of 27 passes for 226 yards with no interceptions and ran for the tying touchdown. Komolafe ran 15 times for 67 yards and caught four passes for 51. Griffin Wilde caught six for 57. We didn't turn the ball over and held it for 34:55.
On defense, Braydon Brus made 15 tackles and Jon Jon Stevens Jr. had 10. The honest note: Michigan State sacked Chiles five times, and we ran for 3.2 yards a carry. A journalist reports the unflattering quotes, too.
Season Coverage
We're 5-1 and 2-1 in the Big Ten, and the AP poll has us at No. 24. We beat South Dakota State and Colorado at our temporary lakefront stadium, lost 29-23 at Indiana, then beat Penn State 34-13 on Oct. 2 in the very first game at our brand-new Ryan Field. We followed that with a 45-14 win over Ball State and Saturday's escape. Chiles has 1,398 passing yards with nine touchdowns and, I'll repeat it, zero interceptions. We score 33.5 points a game and allow 17.
Part 2: Rutgers Comes to Evanston
Saturday, Oct. 24, at noon Eastern, Rutgers visits Ryan Field. Peacock has it.
I'll report fairly, because fairness is the first rule of the newsroom. Rutgers won 37-30 at Maryland last Saturday, coming back from 23-13 down at halftime and scoring 24 straight points. Dylan Lonergan threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns, KJ Duff caught nine passes for 113 yards and two scores, and Clay Thevenin ran for 109 yards. Duff has 741 receiving yards and nine touchdowns this season, and he's the most dangerous player on the field this weekend not wearing purple. Rutgers also commits fewer penalty yards than anyone in FBS, 28.7 a game, according to the AP. That's a disciplined team.
And now, the fact-finding portion.
Rutgers is 2-4. It opened the season with a 37-21 home loss to UMass. (Footnote: I verified this twice. It remains true.) It lost at Boston College, at home to USC and at home to Indiana, 47-15. Per the AP preview, the Scarlet Knights' defense allows 31.8 points a game, 119th in FBS, and 185.2 rushing yards a game, 118th. Their turnover margin is minus-5, 122nd. Ours is plus-7, eighth. And our red-zone offense ranks fourth in FBS, scoring on 96.4% of trips.
When a newsroom sees numbers like that, it doesn't call them a trend. It calls them a story.
Who to Watch
Aidan Chiles, quarterback: 1,398 yards, nine touchdowns, no interceptions, 70.5% completions.
Caleb Komolafe, running back: 401 yards and four touchdowns. Rutgers allows 185 rushing yards a game. I expect a feature-length story.
Griffin Wilde, receiver: 30 catches for 482 yards, our leader.
Braydon Brus, linebacker: 52 tackles and three sacks, our leader in both.
Jackson Kleather, kicker: three field goals and the game-winner. Give the young man a byline.
KJ Duff, Rutgers receiver: 42 catches, 741 yards, nine touchdowns. Our pass defense allows 230.5 yards a game, so this is the matchup to watch.
The Archives
Rutgers leads the all-time series 4-2, according to both schools' records and Sports-Reference, and won the last meeting, 24-7 in Piscataway in 2023. The first meeting was on Thanksgiving Day 1919. I like to think somebody fact-checked it.
Dateline: A Tale of Two Towns
Evanston. Population 78,110 at the 2020 census, sitting on Lake Michigan 12 miles north of the Loop. Our campus spans 240 acres on the lakefront, and the Medill School of Journalism, founded in 1921, counts 40 Pulitzer Prizes among its alumni. Our new Ryan Field holds 35,000, the smallest stadium in the Big Ten. (Footnote: We prefer "most exclusive.") It eliminated the nosebleed seats entirely, so every fan in the building is close enough to hear the quarterback's cadence. Its opening was delayed about three weeks by construction, and when it finally opened, we beat Penn State by 21. Worth the wait.
New Brunswick and Piscataway, New Jersey. I'll begin with a sincere compliment. Rutgers played in the first college football game in history, on Nov. 6, 1869, against Princeton, and won 6-4. Every one of us owes them for that.
But, as a journalist, I'm obligated to follow up. That was 157 years ago. Since then, Rutgers has spent a great deal of time telling people about it. (Footnote: In fairness, if I'd invented college football, I'd mention it, too. Constantly. At dinner parties.) The Scarlet Knights invented the sport, then lost to UMass in the 2026 season opener. That's like inventing the printing press and misspelling your own name on the first page.
New Brunswick is known as the Hub City for its medical facilities, which is useful, since its defense allows 185 rushing yards a game. And Rutgers fans give directions by New Jersey Turnpike exit. The famous one, Exit 9, is technically just outside New Brunswick, in East Brunswick, per Wikipedia. (Footnote: Fact-checked. You're welcome, New Jersey.)
The Closing Paragraph
Here's my reporting, and I stand by it. We're 5-1, ranked, at home in a building we've won in by 21 and 31 points, with a quarterback who hasn't thrown an interception all season and a red-zone offense that scores 96% of the time. Rutgers is coming off a nice comeback, but it gives up 31.8 points a game and is minus-5 in turnovers.
(Footnote: I was right.)
Go 'Cats.
My call: Northwestern Wildcats 38, Rutgers Scarlet Knights 20.