Buenos días, Lobo nation. Paloma Begaye-Ortiz here, writing from the tailgate of my chase truck with a breakfast burrito in my hand. Red or green? Both. Always both. I'm a hot air balloon pilot, which means I read the wind for a living, and I read football the same way. You check the conditions, you trust your instruments, and you don't panic when you drift.
Saturday in Honolulu, the Lobos drifted. For a whole half, we drifted. And then the burner kicked on. Let's review it, and then let's talk about the biggest home game of the season: North Dakota State, under the lights, at University Stadium.
Part 1: New Mexico 21, Hawai'i 10
On Oct. 17 at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, New Mexico trailed 10-0 at halftime and came back to beat Hawai'i 21-10.
The first half was low clouds. Hawai'i kicked a 27-yard field goal in the first quarter and scored on a 1-yard touchdown pass with six seconds left in the half. New Mexico hadn't scored.
Then the burner. To open the third quarter, the Lobos went 75 yards in nine plays and 5:17, and Scottre Humphrey crashed in from the 1 to make it 10-7. With 6:57 left, Toa Fa'avae ran 21 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. And with 3:24 left, Humphrey ran 49 yards right up the middle to seal it. Liftoff.
The flight log: New Mexico ran 48 times for 243 yards. Humphrey had 90 yards and two touchdowns on 15 carries, Kiefer Sibley had 87 on 17, and Fa'avae had 77 on 10. The Lobos converted all three of their fourth-down tries. The defense held Hawai'i to 48 rushing yards on 27 carries, 1.8 per carry, and 3-of-13 on third down. Darren Agu had 3.5 tackles for loss and a sack. And the defense forced two turnovers.
Now the honest pilot's report, because you don't lie in a flight log. New Mexico committed 16 penalties for 145 yards. Sixteen. Fa'avae completed 5 of 10 passes for 59 yards with two interceptions, and the Lobos lost a fumble. Three turnovers and 145 penalty yards on the road, and we still won by 11. Imagine the flight with clean air.
And here's what I love about that comeback. A balloon doesn't fight the wind. It finds the right layer and rides it. In the second half, the Lobos stopped fighting and found their layer: run the ball, run it again, and trust the defense. Twenty-one unanswered points. That's a pilot who knows her instruments.
The Lobos are 5-1 and 2-0 in the Mountain West. They beat Central Michigan 38-7 and Mercyhurst 70-7, lost 14-6 at Oklahoma, won 42-18 at New Mexico State, beat UTEP 61-7 and won at Hawai'i.
Part 2: North Dakota State at New Mexico
Saturday, 10 p.m. Eastern, 8 p.m. here, at University Stadium, on The CW. North Dakota State (6-1, 3-1 Mountain West) at New Mexico (5-1, 2-0).
Our Instruments
New Mexico leads FBS with a plus-17 turnover margin. Plus seventeen! The Lobos allow 10.5 points per game, first in the nation. Their red zone defense ranks first, allowing scores on 62.5 percent of trips. They allow 262.7 yards per game, sixth, 92 rushing yards per game, 15th, and 170.7 passing yards, 19th. Opponents convert just 30.8 percent of third downs, 15th.
The offense scores 39.7 points per game, 10th. It runs for 214.5 yards per game, 21st, and it holds the ball for 33:46, seventh. Humphrey has 422 yards and eight touchdowns. Fa'avae has 698 passing yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. Bailen George has 12 catches for 240 yards and three touchdowns, 20 yards a catch.
The honest note: New Mexico throws for 163.5 yards per game, 127th, and Fa'avae completes 56.2 percent.
The Bison
North Dakota State has a great defense, and I won't pretend otherwise. It allows 246 yards per game, second in FBS, 133.9 passing yards per game, second, and 11.3 points per game, second. Plus-7 turnover margin, eighth. The Bison won 10 FCS national titles from 2011 to 2024, per Wikipedia. Respect.
But they're new to this sky. The Bison joined the Mountain West and FBS on July 1. And their offense ranks 92nd in yards at 362 per game and 113th in passing at 187.3. Nathan Hayes threw for 153 yards last week. Their red zone offense scores on 86.4 percent of trips, 64th, against our first-ranked red zone defense.
And the Bison lost 13-7 at UNLV two weeks ago. Seven points. On the road. In the desert. Hmm.
They also committed 11 penalties for 98 yards last week. We had 16. So let's call that a wash and say both teams owe the officials a breakfast burrito.
The Altitude
Here's what a balloon pilot knows. Air gets thin as you go up. University Stadium sits at 5,100 feet, the fourth highest stadium in FBS. The Fargodome, per Wikipedia, sits at about 900 feet at street level, and it has a roof. The Bison are climbing more than 4,000 feet and stepping outside. Bring a sweater, friends. Bring two.
The Series
CollegeFootballData.com has no previous meeting on record for these programs. A first flight. Let's make it a smooth landing.
Town Report: Albuquerque vs. Fargo
Albuquerque. Albuquerque had 564,559 people at the 2020 census and was founded in 1706. It sits with the Sandia Mountains on the east and the West Mesa on the west, with the Rio Grande flowing right through the middle. "Sandía" means watermelon in Spanish, a name popularly believed to come from the pink and green the mountains turn at sunset. The Sandia Peak Tramway, per Wikipedia, is the longest aerial tram in the Americas. Old Town's San Felipe de Neri Church dates to 1793. Route 66 travelers first rolled through in 1926. And we average 278 days of sunshine a year.
And every October, we host the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta, which Wikipedia calls the largest balloon festival in the world and the most photographed annual event. It started with 13 balloons in 1972 and now has more than 500. I fly in it. The Mass Ascension at dawn, hundreds of balloons lifting at once over the valley? That's heaven on a cool morning.
Fargo. Fargo is a fine city on the Red River, the biggest in North Dakota. But Wikipedia says its winters are among the coldest in the contiguous United States, with a normal January mean temperature of 9.2 degrees and an average of 43 days a year at zero or below. Forty-three days at or below zero! We get 278 days of sunshine. They get 43 days of frostbite.
No wonder the Bison play in a dome. Friends, if I tried to launch a balloon in Fargo in January, it would come back down as a popsicle.
Landing
Here's the flight plan. Win the turnover battle, because that's what this team does best. Run Humphrey and Sibley at a defense that ranks 34th against the run, its weakest instrument. Clean up the penalties. And make the Bison offense, the 113th-ranked passing attack in the country, try to drive 80 yards against the best red zone defense in America, a mile in the sky.
Red or green? Both. Go Lobos.
My call: New Mexico Lobos 26, North Dakota State Bison 19.