Well, howdy, Pack. Rutherford "Ruff" Pegram here, Wake County born and raised, engineer by trade, and keeper of the finest charcoal grill in the Carter-Finley lot. I explain every scheme with a grill thermometer, because football and barbecue are the same science: control the heat, watch the clock, don't flip it too early. And I howl exactly once per segment. No more, no less. It's a discipline.
This week, the grill stayed cold. NC State had a bye. But don't worry, Pack, I spent the off week cleaning the grates and studying film. Let's get to it.
Part 1: The Bye, and the Week Before It
NC State didn't play on Oct. 17. It was our open date. So let's look honestly at the last game we did play, and I'll warn you now, it was a burnt brisket.
Wake Forest beat us 38-14 at Carter-Finley Stadium on Oct. 10. We're 3-3 and 1-2 in the ACC. The first half was fine, honestly. Wake scored first, then CJ Bailey hit Chance Robinson for a 24-yard touchdown to tie it. In the second quarter, Will Wilson threw a 2-yard touchdown pass to Hunter Provience, and we led 14-7. Wake kicked a field goal on the final play of the half, and we led 14-10 at the break. Grill temp: a perfect 225.
Then the second half caught fire, and not the good kind. Wake scored 28 straight points, three in the third quarter alone. Its quarterback threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns, and Jack Foley caught eight passes for 156 yards. That's when the thermometer jumped to 500, and somebody forgot to close the lid.
Here's the honest number that hurt most. NC State ran 24 times for 15 yards. Fifteen. That's 0.6 yards a carry. My grill tongs move farther than that when I flip a burger.
Bailey completed 28 of 39 passes for 241 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions. Keenan Jackson caught five passes for 61 yards. Linebacker Popo Aguirre made 12 tackles and recorded a sack. The effort was there. The heat control wasn't.
But here's the good news: we went 8-5 last season and won the Gasparilla Bowl 31-7 over Memphis. And this season, we beat Louisville 31-28 just two weeks before Wake. This team can cook.
Part 2: A Late-Night Cookout in California
Friday, 10:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. NC State (3-3) at Stanford (3-4) at Stanford Stadium. That's a 7:30 p.m. kickoff out there. Pack, put on a pot of coffee.
Reading Stanford's Thermometer
I'll be fair first. Stanford just beat Elon 34-7, and running back Micah Ford had four touchdowns, tying Stanford's single-game record, including an 81-yard run. Ford has 529 rushing yards and eight touchdowns this season. Stanford also beat Georgia Tech 34-27. Respect.
Now let's read the gauge.
Stanford is 3-4, and Elon is an FCS team. Against Miami, Stanford lost 45-6 at home. At Duke, it lost 35-7. At Wake Forest, 57-3. At Notre Dame, 58-7. Stanford's defense gives up 452 yards a game, 134th in FBS, and 36.6 points a game, 133rd. Opponents convert 47.8% on third down against it, 131st. And here's the one that made my thermometer pop out of the meat: Stanford's red zone defense allows opponents to score on 96.4% of trips. That ranks 136th in FBS. Pack, that's not a defense. That's a welcome mat.
Stanford's offense scores 18.3 points a game, 127th, and runs for 103.4 yards a game, 131st. Last season, per CollegeFootballData, Stanford went 4-8.
Reading Our Thermometer
NC State converts 51.1% of its third downs, 15th in FBS. We average 32:52 of possession a game, 20th. We score 33 points a game. Bailey has 1,507 yards and nine touchdowns. Jayden Scott has 358 rushing yards and four touchdowns, and Jackson has 27 catches for 400 yards and five touchdowns. Aguirre leads us with 54 tackles, and Elijah Satchell has three sacks.
And the last time we met, on Nov. 2, 2024, in Raleigh, NC State won 59-28.
Three Keys From the Grill Thermometer
1. Low and slow. Stanford averages 28:19 of possession a game, 108th in FBS. We average 32:52. Long, patient drives keep their offense on the sideline and let the coals do the work. 2. Finish the cook. Our red zone offense scores on 85.2% of trips, 71st in FBS. Against a red zone defense ranked 136th, every trip inside the 20 should end with a plate on the table. 3. Mind the flare-ups. Ford can break one at any moment, like that 81-yard run last week. Tackle in groups. The Pack travels in packs.
The Honest Grill Report
I've burned a few briskets in my day, and I don't hide them. Our defense allows 27.7 points a game, 104th in FBS. Our pass defense allows 230.3 yards a game, 99th. We lost our opener 34-8 at Virginia and lost 35-31 at Vanderbilt. And after 15 rushing yards against Wake, we have to find the run game again. Stanford's run defense allows 196.6 yards a game, 125th. So, Pack, this is the week to fire up the smoker and run the ball.
Wolfpack, howl! (That's my one for this segment.)
Postcards: Raleigh vs. Stanford
Raleigh. Raleigh is the capital of North Carolina. The site was chosen in 1788, and the city was incorporated in 1792, making it an early example of a planned city in the United States. We're known as the "City of Oaks" for our oak-lined streets, and with 467,665 people at the 2020 census, we're the second-most populous city in the state and the largest city in the Research Triangle. Carter-Finley Stadium has been home to the Pack since 1966, and it seats 56,919. And our team name? It came from an unsigned letter to the NC State Alumni News in 1921 suggesting "Wolf Pack." The fans named the team. That's the people's Pack.
Stanford. Here's the thing about Stanford, California. It's not technically a city. It's a census-designated place, and it remains unincorporated. Its population is 21,150, and those residents mostly live in on-campus housing. Raleigh has about 22 Stanfords. Stanford's football team plays in a place that's basically a very large dorm with a ZIP code.
Then there's the mascot. Stanford's team name, Cardinal, refers to the color, not the bird, and the university doesn't have an official mascot. The unofficial one is the Stanford Tree, a sequoia that belongs to the marching band. It regularly shows up on internet "worst mascot" lists. Pack, our mascot is a wolf. Their mascot is something you'd grill on. Well, not a sequoia. But you get it. Run with the Pack, and the tree gets chopped.
And the stadium? Stanford Stadium was built in five months in 1921. Then it was demolished and rebuilt after the 2005 season. Even their stadium needed a do-over.
Final Temperature
Here's the read. Stanford has a talented running back and a defense ranked near the bottom of FBS in nearly every category. NC State has a top-15 third-down offense, a quarterback who protects the ball and a whole bye week of film study. If we get the run game going, finish drives in the red zone and keep Ford in check, the Pack eats well on Friday night.
Run with the Pack.
My call: NC State Wolfpack 33, Stanford Cardinal 24.