Rock Chalk, everybody. Fitz Calloway here. I grew up in Lawrence as a basketball person, and I'll admit I came to football analytics out of pure spite. Somebody told me Kansas football was hopeless, so I started keeping a spreadsheet to prove them wrong. That spreadsheet now has a lot of tabs. Some of them are sad. I'm only here because of spite and the stats.
Fair warning: I convert every football number into basketball. I can't stop. I've tried.
This week: an honest look at a painful Saturday in Manhattan, and then a very warm Lawrence welcome for Baylor, a team that has beaten us 15 straight times. I'm aware. I have it in a spreadsheet.
Part 1: Manhattan, Again
Kansas State beat us 35-24 on Saturday. That's 18 straight losses to them, dating to 2008. I don't have a basketball conversion for that one. In basketball, we'd have beaten them twice in the same month by now.
And here's what hurts. We led 17-7 after the first quarter in their building. Bryson Hayes took a kickoff back 95 yards for a touchdown right after their opening score. Isaiah Marshall threw a 12-yard touchdown to Nik McMillan to cap an 88-yard drive, and Martin Connington added a 31-yard field goal. I was doing math on my napkin. I was converting it to points per possession. It looked like a top-10 offense in the Big 12 Tournament.
Then the second quarter happened. Kansas State kicked three field goals, and we fumbled the snap on a punt for a safety. The Wildcats led 18-17 at the half. Dylan Edwards scored on a 3-yard run against his former team to put us back up 24-18, and the defense even stopped them on four straight runs from first-and-goal at our 5. That was a stand at the goal, a blocked shot at the rim and a charge, all on one possession.
Then the fourth quarter. Marshall threw an interception in the end zone while we were trying to tie it. We got the ball back, and Marshall broke a 45-yard touchdown run that a facemask penalty wiped out. We punted. They kicked a field goal with 1:56 left. Marshall finished with 151 passing yards and 117 rushing yards, which is a heck of a box score. Trey Lathan and Bam Crouch each made eight tackles.
Kansas State outgained us 568 to 319 and ran for 359 yards. AP said the Wildcats dominated everywhere but the scoreboard. I'll take "everywhere but the scoreboard" as a compliment, because the scoreboard was close, and the scoreboard is my most beloved part.
Part 2: Baylor Comes to Lawrence
Saturday, 1 p.m. Eastern, TNT. Baylor (4-2) at Kansas (2-4). I'll do the honest thing and give you the bad number first: Baylor leads the series 19-4 and has won the last 15. The last time Kansas won was 2007, 58-10, right here in Lawrence. That was the 12-1 season that ended with an Orange Bowl win. I remember it like a Final Four.
The Bears' Shot Chart
Baylor's defense is legit, and I won't insult your intelligence. The Bears haven't allowed more than 19 points in a game this season, and they're ninth in FBS in run defense, at 86.7 yards a game. They allow 14.7 points a game, also ninth.
But look at the offense from last Saturday. TCU beat Baylor 17-6 in Waco. Baylor's quarterback, DJ Lagway, went 22 of 53. In basketball terms, that's shooting 41.5% from the field on 53 attempts, which would get you benched in a church league. The Bears ran 34 times for 54 yards. And in the first half they put together three straight drives of at least 12 plays each. Their reward? A missed 47-yard field goal and two short ones. Six points.
Think about that. Thirty-six-plus plays for six points. In basketball, that's three straight possessions with every offensive rebound you could ask for, and you go 2 for 3 at the free-throw stripe. That's not an offense, friends. That's a shot clock violation with extra steps.
Baylor scores on 75% of its red zone trips, 119th in FBS. And it has field goal issues. I'm told this is what happens when you go to Waco: everything stops halfway. Waco's own Wikipedia page introduces the town as being halfway from Dallas to Austin. It's a rest stop with a stadium.
To be fair, Baylor's passing game is 16th in FBS at 286 yards a game, and Gavin Freeman has 49 catches for 555 yards. Two weeks ago Lagway threw four touchdowns in a 55-19 win at Arizona State. When it's on, it's on. But Baylor's pass defense ranks 110th, allowing 240 yards a game. Marshall has 1,294 passing yards this season and McMillan averages more than 17 yards a catch. That's a fast break waiting to happen.
Our Game Plan, Per the Spreadsheet
We run for 207 yards a game, 23rd in FBS. We score 32 points a game. Edwards has 375 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Leroy Harris III has three sacks, and Lathan leads us with 41 tackles. Our pass defense is 26th in FBS. And we have Hayes back there on kickoffs, which is like having a guy who can hit a half-court shot whenever he wants.
What we need: clean football. No facemasks, no fumbled snaps, no turnovers in the end zone. Last week we beat ourselves. This week, let's let the other team try.
Mass Street Report: A Tale of Two Towns
Lawrence. Let me show you home. Massachusetts Street runs right where the original settlers started building the town in 1854, and it's still the heart of downtown. Up on the hill, Allen Fieldhouse was dedicated on March 1, 1955, with a win over Kansas State, and the Jayhawks have gone undefeated at home 20 times since it opened. James Naismith, the man who invented basketball, founded the KU program in 1898. And our football home, Memorial Stadium, opened in 1921. It's one of the oldest college football stadiums in the country and is widely recognized as the oldest west of the Mississippi. The new west side opened in 2025. Come see it. Bring a friend. Bring everybody you know, honestly.
And when you hear the "Rock Chalk, Jayhawk" chant roll through the stands, you'll understand why we never leave early, even when the spreadsheet says we should.
Waco. Waco is a perfectly nice town of about 138,000. Dr Pepper was invented there in 1885, which I appreciate, because I need a lot of caffeine to watch Baylor's offense. They have a suspension bridge from 1870. And the big tourist draw is Magnolia Market at the Silos, a shopping complex built around two old cotton-oil silos. So the top attraction in town is a pair of old silos that somebody put on TV. I respect the hustle.
They also have live bears. Fine. Real live bears. Our mascot is a mythical bird, and frankly that's a flex, because you can't run out of something that doesn't exist.
And Baylor's stadium, McLane, has 45,140 seats on the Brazos River, where fans can arrive by boat. I'll grant you that's charming. But Lawrence had 94,934 people at the 2020 census, and our football stadium has been here since 1921. Theirs opened in 2014. We have sneakers older than McLane Stadium. Okay, not literally. But spiritually.
The Final Possession
Here's my spreadsheet's honest read. Baylor has the stronger defense and a 15-game streak against us. We have the stronger running game, a return man who can flip the field and a home crowd that's been waiting since 2007. If Baylor's offense keeps stalling in the red zone and we play one clean game, this is the Saturday the streak ends. I've done the math. I've also done the spite.
Rock Chalk. Let's go win one for the spreadsheet.
My call: Baylor Bears 28, Kansas Jayhawks 27.