Greetings, Jackets. Wendell Quist reporting, aerospace engineering degree on the wall, mechanical pencil behind my ear and a fresh pad of graph paper on the desk. I model the trajectory of every Georgia Tech punt. I chart every drive as a vector. I believe everything in this world is physics, and football is just physics wearing a helmet.
This week's experiment produced mixed results. That's okay. That's science. You record the data honestly, adjust the variables and run it again.
Graph paper doesn't lie.
Part 1: A Steep Initial Slope
Virginia Tech beat us 34-24 in Blacksburg on Saturday. We're 2-4 and 1-2 in the ACC. I'll present the data exactly as it happened, because an engineer who fudges data builds bridges that fall down.
The first half was a negative-slope graph. Virginia Tech scored a 60-yard touchdown on the game's third play and scored on four of its first five possessions. On our first possession, we fumbled the ball through the end zone on the way to a touchdown, and it became a touchback. That's a perfect trajectory with a catastrophic landing. Aidan Birr kicked a 31-yard field goal, but we trailed 24-3 at halftime.
Then the curve bent upward. Trelain Maddox ran 42 yards for a touchdown to open the third quarter. Two minutes later, Alberto Mendoza hit Dalen Penson for a 33-yard touchdown. Suddenly it was 24-17. In engineering terms, that's a rapid rate of change.
Virginia Tech answered with a touchdown and a field goal, and Mendoza found Jaiven Plummer for a 6-yard score late. But it wasn't enough.
Here's the data point I'll be framing: Mendoza completed 29 of 38 passes for a career-high 335 yards and two touchdowns. Jordan Allen caught 10 passes for 120 yards. And Georgia Tech outgained Virginia Tech 428-409. More yards, fewer points. AP noted our two turnovers led to 10 Virginia Tech points. That's the whole equation. Coach Brent Key talked afterward about consistency and the improvement he saw, and the graph agrees with him on both.
Part 2: The Eagles Land in Atlanta
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ACC Network. Boston College (3-3) at Georgia Tech (2-4) at Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Boston College: The Data Set
Let me tip my hard hat first. Boston College just came back from a 12-0 hole to beat Pittsburgh 27-21. Its pass defense allows 169.3 yards a game, 18th in FBS. Mason McKenzie threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns in that game, and he's also BC's leading rusher with 444 yards. Respect.
Now let's graph the rest.
Boston College scores 20.3 points a game, 118th in FBS. It scores on only 60% of its red zone trips, 135th. Visualize that. Picture a rocket that clears the atmosphere and then forgets how to land. McKenzie has thrown seven touchdowns and seven interceptions, and I'm an engineer, so I can tell you that ratio has a slope of exactly 1.
Boston College's season includes a 34-15 loss at Cincinnati and a 22-16 win over Maine, an FCS team. Against Pitt, it trailed 12-0 in the first quarter after giving up a touchdown on the first play from scrimmage and a blocked punt that went for a safety. Its run defense allows 159.5 yards a game, 95th. And last season, per CollegeFootballData, Boston College went 2-10.
Georgia Tech: The Data Set
Mendoza completes 71.2% of his passes, with 1,528 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Justice Haynes has 462 rushing yards. Allen has 38 catches for 432 yards. Tae Harris leads us with 38 tackles, and Noah Carter has three sacks. Our passing game ranks 44th in FBS. And two weeks ago, we beat a previously unbeaten Duke team, 28-25.
Error Bars
Honesty section. Our defense allows 392.2 yards a game, 110th in FBS, and 179 rushing yards a game, also 110th. We're minus-4 in turnover margin and 117th in penalty yards. We also lost our opener 14-13 to Colorado. Those numbers need to move. The fix is simple physics: an object in motion stays in motion unless acted on by an outside force. Be the outside force, defense.
The series: Georgia Tech leads 8-5, according to CollegeFootballData, and we won last season 36-34 in Chestnut Hill. But BC won its last two trips to Bobby Dodd, in 2021 and 2023. Time to correct that trend.
The Experiment Design
Here's my hypothesis for Saturday. Boston College's run defense ranks 95th. Ours has to be better than it was in Blacksburg, but our offense should get to lean on Haynes and Maddox, who ran for a 42-yard touchdown last week. That pulls defenders toward the ball and opens the air for Mendoza and Allen against a pass defense that's been good all year. Variable two: ball security. We had two turnovers last week and they cost us 10 points. Remove that variable, and the curve changes shape. Variable three: the crowd. This is a 3:30 home kickoff in late October in Atlanta, at the oldest stadium in FBS. Control group, meet home field.
Field Notes: Atlanta vs. Chestnut Hill
Atlanta. Atlanta sits in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains at just over 1,000 feet above sea level, and it has the densest urban tree coverage of any major city in the United States. Hartsfield-Jackson has been the world's busiest airport by passenger traffic since 1998, except for 2020. Atlanta hosted the 1996 Summer Olympics, the first time every one of the invited national Olympic committees sent athletes, a record 197 of them.
And our stadium? Bobby Dodd Stadium has been home to Georgia Tech football in some form since 1905 and as a complete stadium since 1913. It's the oldest stadium in FBS, and it's been the site of more home wins than any other FBS stadium. Our mascot, the Ramblin' Wreck, is a 1930 Ford Model A Sport Coupe that's led the team onto the field since 1961. An engineering school whose mascot is a working machine. That's not a mascot. That's a thesis.
Chestnut Hill. Boston College plays in Chestnut Hill, a village six miles west of downtown Boston. Here's my most beloved fact about it: Chestnut Hill is not an incorporated municipality. It's split among three different places: Brookline, Boston and Newton. So Boston College's hometown is, technically, a shared rounding error between three other towns. As an engineer, I find that wonderful. As a mapmaker, I find it stressful.
Also, the name. Chestnut Hill isn't named after one hill. It refers to several small hills overlooking a reservoir. So it's not "Chestnut Hill." It's "Chestnut Hills, Approximately." And Boston itself, measured at its airport, sits about 19 feet above sea level. Our city is more than 50 times higher. On graph paper, that's not even close. Those Eagles are going to need a longer runway.
Final Calculation
Here's my model. Georgia Tech has the better passing game and a quarterback who's completing better than 70% of his throws. Boston College has a good pass defense, but an offense that struggles to finish drives. If our defense wins third down and we keep the ball off the ground, the Wreck gets to take a victory lap.
Graph paper doesn't lie. Go Jackets!
My call: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 28, Boston College Eagles 21.