Hey, Buffs. Moss Feldstein here, swinging gently in my hammock under the Flatirons with a kombucha in one hand and a laptop full of regression models in the other. I'm a physicist, I play a mean game of hacky sack, and I run a quant model of this team that I update every Sunday at sunrise. This Sunday, the model and I had a long, honest talk. It was mostly the model talking. I mostly sipped.
Let's go through it together, man. Then let's talk about Stillwater, where they're throwing what they call America's Greatest Homecoming, and we're the guests. Statistically, that's rad.
Part 1: The Late-Night Rally That Almost Was
Utah beat us 27-24 at Folsom Field in a game that ended after midnight. We're 2-4 and 0-3 in the Big 12, and we've lost four straight. I'm not going to sugarcoat it. Sugar's bad for you anyway.
The first half was a tough data set. AP pointed out that we had more penalty yards (82) than yards of offense (70) at halftime. My model doesn't even have a variable for that. Utah led 13-0 at the break. We finished with 10 penalties for 93 yards. Penalties, friends, are the one stat you can fix by just chilling out.
But the second half? Pure energy. Isaac Wilson, starting against his old team, hit JaQuail Smith on a 68-yard touchdown pass on our first drive of the half. DeKalon Taylor ran 18 yards for another score. Elliott Arnold kicked a 32-yard field goal, and suddenly we led 17-13. We gained 324 of our 394 yards after halftime. That's not a regression to the mean. That's a progression to the rad.
Utah answered with two Devon Dampier touchdown passes to Braden Pegan. Wilson found DeAndre Moore Jr. for a 2-yard touchdown with 1:21 left to cut it to three. Utah recovered the onside kick, but we got the ball back. Then Wilson found an opening in the middle of the field and pitched to Quanell Farrakhan Jr., who ran to the Utah 38. A review ruled it an illegal forward pass. We tried one last throw, and it didn't connect.
Wilson finished with 256 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Naeten Mitchell and Dylan Manuel each intercepted Dampier. And Utah now owns the longest active winning streak in FBS, 12 straight. We had them sweating at midnight. The model calls that a "moral victory coefficient," which isn't a real thing, but it should be.
Part 2: Crashing the Homecoming
Saturday, 7 p.m. Eastern, FS1, at Boone Pickens Stadium. Colorado (2-4) at Oklahoma State (4-2). It's Oklahoma State's homecoming, billed by the university as "America's Greatest Homecoming Celebration." The game is listed as sold out.
Colorado leads the all-time series 27-20-1. And the last time these teams met, Nov. 29, 2024, in Boulder, the final score was Colorado 52, Oklahoma State 0. Fifty-two to zero. I've run that number through every model I own. They all just print a little smiley face.
Oklahoma State, by the Numbers
I'll be fair first, because good science is honest. Oklahoma State's offense is legit. It gains 517.7 yards a game, fifth in FBS, and passes for 329.5 yards a game, fourth. Drew Mestemaker has 1,940 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. Wyatt Young has 561 receiving yards, and Caleb Hawkins has 592 rushing yards. The Cowboys beat Oregon 39-31 in September. Respect.
Now the rest of the data.
Last Saturday they lost 35-32 at Houston. They trailed 14-3 at halftime, and AP said they never got closer than three points after that. Their coach talked openly about the team's slow starts after the game. So, man, the model has a suggestion: show up to the first half. It's half the game. That's just math.
Oklahoma State converts 34.3% on third down, 112th in FBS, and it's minus-4 in turnover margin, 113th. Its run defense allows 151.2 yards a game, 87th. And it opened this season with a 24-10 loss at Tulsa. Last season, per CollegeFootballData, the Cowboys went 1-11.
Honest Buffs Data
We have issues too, and I'll own them. Colorado ranks 136th in FBS in penalty yards, at 84.3 a game. We score on 70.6% of our red zone trips, 130th. We're minus-6 in turnover margin, 126th. So this is a game between two teams that like to hand the ball to the other team. The model calls it "chaos football." I call it "Saturday."
The bright spots: Joseph Williams has 37 catches for 508 yards and five touchdowns. Lamont Lester Jr. has four sacks, and Randon Fontenette leads us with 49 tackles. Our passing game is 46th in FBS. And Oklahoma State's pass defense ranks 66th, so there's room to throw.
The equation for Saturday is simple. Fewer flags plus more red zone touchdowns equals a happy bus ride home. Clean it up, play the whole first half, and good things happen.
The Hammock Report: A Tale of Two Towns
Boulder. We sit at the base of the Rocky Mountain foothills at 5,430 feet. The Flatirons, giant tilted slabs of sedimentary stone, rise west of town and are the symbol of Boulder. In 1967, Boulder voters approved a dedicated tax to buy open space around the city, and in 1972 the city limited building heights to protect the views of the mountains. Think about that, man: Boulder passed a law so nobody could block the view. That's my kind of government.
And at Folsom Field, which opened in 1924 and sits 5,360 feet above sea level, Ralphie the Buffalo runs a horseshoe around the field before each half. She can hit 25 miles per hour, and it takes five handlers to guide her. A real bison. Running. At altitude. Statistically, that's the most rad thing in college football.
Stillwater. Stillwater is a friendly college town of 48,394. Boulder has more than two Stillwaters. And the name? Nobody's totally sure. The town's history, as the encyclopedia tells it, lists three legends. One says the creek water was always still. One says cattlemen always found the water "still there." The third says a man walked up to the creek and announced, "This town should be named Still Water." So the official origin story of Stillwater is, essentially, "Somebody looked at a creek." I've looked at a lot of creeks, man. I didn't name a single one.
Oklahoma State's colors are fun too. The school's original mascot was a tiger copied from Princeton, which is why the Cowboys wear orange and black. So the Cowboys are dressed like a tiger from New Jersey. I'm not judging. I wear socks with sandals. But I know what I'm doing.
To be fair, Stillwater has Eskimo Joe's and the Strip, where Garth Brooks got his start, and Boone Pickens Stadium has the oldest field in the Big 12. And I'll admit the homecoming week sounds charming, with a parade and a fountain they dye for the occasion. We'll try not to spoil it. We'll mostly try.
The Model's Final Output
Here's what my numbers say. Oklahoma State has the better offense this year, no question. But it starts slow, it struggles on third down, it gives the ball away and its run defense is soft. Colorado has to stop the flags, finish in the red zone and play all 60 minutes the way it played the second half against Utah. Do that, and the guests could get the last laugh at somebody else's party.
Grab a kombucha. Swing in a hammock. Believe in variance. Statistically, that's rad.
My call: Oklahoma State Cowboys 31, Colorado Buffaloes 21.