West Virginia's quarterback leads all of FBS in rushing touchdowns. TCU's defense allows 2.88 yards a carry. Ryder Galloway says that's a cattle drive. Jolene Buckhannon says she doesn't miss.
West Virginia (4-3) at TCU (3-3), Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. It's a Big 12 game and TCU's Homecoming. DraftKings has TCU Horned Frogs −8.5 with a total of 56.5. My card: TCU Horned Frogs −8.5, Under 56.5, and a final of TCU Horned Frogs 34, West Virginia Mountaineers 22.
Ryder speaks for TCU, a Stockyards cowboy turned finance guy. "Yeehaw. We allow 12.2 points and 264.2 yards a game. Every rider holds his spot, and nobody gets loose on my drive. Anything goes wrong, I'm blaming Dallas."
Jolene speaks for West Virginia, a former rifle team captain who counts possessions like rounds. "Load up. Michael Hawkins Jr. threw for a career-best 464 yards last week, and Cam Cook has 833 rushing yards. We beat Cincinnati on a field goal at the horn. I sang a verse of Country Roads for that one."
So why TCU by more than 8.5? Because this is a strength-against-weakness game on both sides. West Virginia runs on about 72% of its plays, and TCU's defense allows 2.88 yards a carry. When TCU throws, Jaden Craig faces a West Virginia pass defense allowing 310.1 yards a game and 34.0 points. Craig just threw for 294 yards in a 17-6 win at Baylor, where TCU didn't allow a touchdown. My final has the Horned Frogs by 12.
The caveat is real. TCU hasn't blown anybody out. All three of its losses came by eight points or fewer, and its own run game gets just 3.27 yards a carry. Its blockers have allowed 17 sacks. And West Virginia scores 37.6 points a game, so the Mountaineers won't go quietly. Hawkins can beat you with his arm or his legs.
Why the Under? TCU's defense is the best thing on the field, and it just held Baylor to six points. West Virginia's ground game is the engine, and that engine runs into a wall. My 34-22 adds up to 56, half a point under 56.5.
Now the room, and this is the most agreeable room of the week. All five voices call the Under. Four are on TCU: The Formula at 32-22, Next Man Up at 35-21, Letdown Watch at 35-19 and Follow The Money at 33-24. In The Trenches is the lone voice for West Virginia +8.5.
Letdown Watch opened: "Thirty-five to 19. In The Trenches, you're betting on a run game against a defense that allows 2.88 a carry?"
In The Trenches answered: "I'm taking the points. TCU's blockers have allowed 17 sacks. Somebody in purple is going to be on his back."
Next Man Up added: "That's the first time all week everybody agrees on a total. Write it down."
The Formula smiled: "Somebody will. In ink."
Bottom of the card: a defense that stops the run against a team that only wants to run, and a Homecoming crowd behind it. Saddle up, Ryder. I'll lay the 8.5.
TCU Horned Frogs 34, West Virginia Mountaineers 22. TCU Horned Frogs cover the 8.5. Under 56.5.