Every handicapper in the room takes the points with Tulane. Twan Ducros-Labat, an Uptown Tulane fan who believes every game is a brass-band parade, is already warming up the trombone. Marisol Ybarra, a San Antonio native who collects Fiesta medals for every great Roadrunner play, has a wall full of them this year.
UTSA (6-1) at Tulane (3-3), Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPNU at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. It's an American game and Military Appreciation Night. DraftKings has UTSA Roadrunners −3 with a total of 51.5. My card: Tulane Green Wave +3, Under 51.5, and a final of Tulane Green Wave 26, UTSA Roadrunners 25.
Marisol speaks for UTSA. "Owen McCown threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns against Navy. That's a gold medal for my wall. We've committed only three turnovers in seven games. And we've won four straight since Texas. Birds up, Twan."
Twan speaks for Tulane. "Darlin', we beat Memphis 31-17. Maurice Turner has 315 yards on just 37 carries. That deserves a beignet. We lead the nation in blocked kicks. And we're 3-0 at home. Roll Wave!"
Why Tulane outright? Home field matters here. The Green Wave are 3-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. Their red-zone defense allows scores on just 65.4% of trips, fifth in FBS, which turns UTSA touchdowns into field goals. And UTSA gives up 83.9 penalty yards a game, 134th. Add a team that leads the nation in blocked kicks and you get hidden points. My final has Tulane by one.
The caveats are real. McCown has 10 touchdown passes and only two interceptions, and Tulane lets opponents convert 45.6% of third downs. UTSA hasn't lost since a 30-6 loss at Texas. Tulane hasn't announced whether Trace Johnson or Kadin Semonza starts. Both run defenses are leaky: UTSA allows 199.9 yards a game and Tulane allows 212.5.
Why the Under? Tulane holds the ball only 26:20 a game, last in FBS, but its red-zone defense stops drives short. My 26-25 adds up to 51, half a point under 51.5.
Now the room, and all five are on Tulane. The Formula has Tulane 27-24 and likes the Wave. Next Man Up has 25-24 and likes both Tulane and the Under. Letdown Watch has 29-24 and likes Tulane but calls the Over. In The Trenches is with the Wave and the Under. Follow The Money likes Tulane too, with the Over.
The Formula opened on Follow The Money: "Tulane with all of us, fine. But the Over, with the fifth-ranked red-zone defense in the country on the field?"
Follow The Money answered: "Military Appreciation Night, a free camo hat and beignet sliders. Some things you feel."
Next Man Up: "Twenty-five to 24. Blocked kicks. Red-zone stops. Hidden points, all on the home side."
Letdown Watch: "Twenty-nine to 24. UTSA has a week off after this."
Bottom of the card: a home team that hasn't lost at home, a red-zone defense that stops drives short, and a field goal of cushion in a one-point game. See you on the lawn, Marisol. I'll take the three.
Tulane Green Wave 26, UTSA Roadrunners 25. Tulane Green Wave cover the 3. Under 51.5.