Texas State's offense leads FBS at 562.3 yards a game. Utah State's offense scores 14.5 points a game, 136th. Yesenia Calderwood, a Texas State fan who floats the San Marcos River with a sun hat and a radio, says go with the flow. Hyrum Tolleson, a Utah State fan from a Cache Valley dairy who's been up before the sun since he was 8, says bend, don't break.
Utah State (2-4) at Texas State (3-3), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on CBSSN at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos. It's a Pac-12 game in year one of the rebuilt league, and it's a throwback Homecoming. DraftKings has Texas State Bobcats −11.5 with a total of 58.5. My card: Utah State Aggies +11.5, Under 58.5, and a final of Texas State Bobcats 34, Utah State Aggies 23.
Yesenia speaks for Texas State. "We beat Colorado State 66-27. Brad Jackson ran for 181 yards and three touchdowns, and Torrance Burgess Jr. ran for 224 and four. Whoa, that's a waterfall. Eat 'em up, Cats!"
Hyrum speaks for Utah State. "Eli Wood is a fine young man. He has 472 yards and five touchdowns. We beat Washington State 17-16 and had a week off to rest. The ice cream's on me, Yesenia."
Why Utah State with 11.5? Texas State has trouble finishing. The Bobcats score on 71% of their red-zone trips, 128th in FBS, which turns touchdowns into field goals. And their pass defense allows 297.3 yards a game, 137th. That's where Grady Brosterhous and Wood go. Utah State's defense allows 23.5 points a game, which isn't a pushover. My final has Texas State by 11, half a point short.
The caveats are big. Texas State runs for 303.5 yards a game, third in FBS, and converts 56.1% of third downs. Utah State's run defense allows 140.8 yards a game. Utah State is 0-3 on the road, and Brosterhous has thrown six interceptions. If Burgess, with 838 yards, rips off a few long ones, this gets out of hand.
Why the Under? Utah State's offense doesn't score much, and Texas State settles for kicks in the red zone. My 34-23 adds up to 57, a point and a half under 58.5.
Now the room, and the Under carries it. The Formula has Texas State 32-23 and likes both the Aggies and the Under. Next Man Up has 35-21 and likes the Under but takes the Bobcats. Letdown Watch has 35-23, the Bobcats and the Under. Follow The Money likes Texas State but skips the total, and In The Trenches sits this one out.
Next Man Up opened: "Thirty-five to 21. The Bobcats lead FBS in yards. Lay it."
The Formula answered: "Thirty-two to 23. They lead in yards and rank 128th in the red zone. Yards aren't points."
The Formula turned on Follow The Money: "You liked Texas State and then walked away from the total? Yards aren't points, and you know it."
Follow The Money: "Go with the flow. The river always gets there."
Bottom of the card: a home offense that piles up yards but stalls near the goal line, a road defense that bends, and 11.5 points of cushion. Bend, don't break, Hyrum. I'll take the 11.5.
Texas State Bobcats 34, Utah State Aggies 23. Utah State Aggies cover the 11.5. Under 58.5.