In a world where one team throws for 310.1 yards a game, another team allows 16.7 points a game. Sterling Ashworth-Vance, a USC film buff, narrates every game like a movie trailer. Lars "Brat" Ellefson, a former Badgers fullback, carries a cheese wedge to every game and talks to a polka beat. Oom-pah.
No. 16 USC (6-1) at Wisconsin (4-2), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. It's a Big Ten night game under the lights, with a forecast of 65 degrees. DraftKings has USC Trojans −2.5 with a total of 49.5. My card: Wisconsin Badgers +2.5, Over 49.5, and a final of USC Trojans 26, Wisconsin Badgers 25.
Sterling speaks for USC. "Jayden Maiava has 18 touchdown passes and three interceptions. He threw for 301 yards and three scores in a 31-23 win at Penn State. Roll credits. And USC leads this series 7-1."
Brat speaks for Wisconsin. "Pass the curds, Sterling. Our defense allows 286.7 yards and 16.7 points a game. Michigan State managed three points. Colton Joseph is our quarterback and our leading rusher. That's fullback heart. And we're 3-0 at home."
Why Wisconsin? My final has USC by one, and you're getting 2.5 at home at night. The Badgers' pass defense ranks 20th, the best pass defense Maiava will see in a while. USC's own pass defense ranks 109th, so Joseph has room. Wisconsin scores on 94.1% of its red-zone trips, and USC allows scores on 84.6%. And there's the schedule: USC hosts No. 3 Ohio State next week. A Saturday night in Madison right before that is a sneaky spot.
The caveat is Joseph's arm. He completed only 6 of 16 passes in a 17-7 loss at UCLA. If he can't throw, USC's defense crowds the line, and King Miller, with 595 rushing yards, wears down the Badgers. USC's only loss this season was 41-27 to Oregon.
Why the Over? USC's passing offense ranks seventh, and both red zones favor touchdowns over field goals. My 26-25 adds up to 51, a point and a half over 49.5.
Now the room, and it's split. Next Man Up has Wisconsin winning outright, 27-25, and likes both the Badgers and the Over. Letdown Watch has USC 26-24 and takes Wisconsin. The Formula has USC 28-25 and likes the Over. Follow The Money likes the Trojans and the Under. In The Trenches sits this one out.
Letdown Watch opened on Follow The Money: "Twenty-six to 24 is a two-point game. The spread is 2.5. I took Wisconsin. You took USC. One of us can count."
Follow The Money answered: "And your 26-24 is 50. That's over 49.5. And I still took the Under."
Next Man Up added: "Twenty-seven to 25, Badgers. Night game, Camp Randall rocking, Ohio State on the horizon. Brat, bring the cheese."
The Formula: "Twenty-eight to 25. Seven-to-one series. Strong track record, Brat."
Bottom of the card: a road team with a giant game next week, a home team with a defense that stops people and a crowd that jumps. Sequels can surprise you, Sterling. I'll take the 2.5.
USC Trojans 26, Wisconsin Badgers 25. Wisconsin Badgers cover the 2.5. Over 49.5.