UL Monroe is 0-6 and just got shut out. Troy just lost 33-6. Marlo Pickens has a bag of boiled peanuts for Darnell Vidrine, win or lose, and Darnell's optimism counter is still running.
UL Monroe (0-6) at Troy (3-3), Saturday at 4:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ at Veterans Memorial Stadium. It's a Sun Belt game and Troy's annual Military Appreciation Day, with a helicopter flyover before kickoff. DraftKings has Troy Trojans −17.5 with a total of 50.5. My card: Troy Trojans −17.5, Over 50.5, and a final of Troy Trojans 36, UL Monroe Warhawks 18.
Marlo speaks for Troy, a former snapper from a Wiregrass peanut farm. "Darnell, Louisiana was a bad crop year in a single afternoon. But Donnie Smith, a defensive back, has five sacks. That's a lot of peanuts."
Darnell speaks for UL Monroe. "I love a peanut pun, Marlo, but I love a comeback more. And we beat you 13-9 in 2024. The counter doesn't reset to zero. It just reloads."
Why Troy by more than 17.5? The ground game. Troy runs for about 5.1 yards a carry, with 1,228 rushing yards on 239 carries, and UL Monroe's run defense allows about 5.4 a carry, 1,378 yards on 255 tries. That's the matchup, and it's a mismatch. UL Monroe just lost 24-0 to Louisiana Tech, and Troy won this game 37-14 last year. My final has the Trojans by 18.
The caveat is everything that happened at Louisiana. Troy's quarterbacks combined to go 14 of 26 for 141 yards, a muffed punt at the Troy 8 gave away a touchdown, and Troy hasn't said whether Goose Crowder or Tucker Kilcrease starts. A big favorite that makes those mistakes doesn't cover 17.5.
Why the Over? Both offenses just had awful days, which is exactly why this number looks low. Troy's run game against that run defense should score early and often, and Aidan Armenta, with 974 yards, will get his chances late. My 36-18 adds up to 54, three and a half over 50.5. Every voice in the room agrees with the Over.
Now the room. Next Man Up has the biggest Troy number, 37-17, and likes both. Letdown Watch has 35-17. In The Trenches likes Troy on the ground. The Formula has Troy 36-20 and takes UL Monroe +17.5. Follow The Money sits this one out.
The Formula opened: "Thirty-six to 20. Troy just scored six points. I'm not laying 17.5 with a team that hasn't named its quarterback."
Next Man Up answered: "Thirty-seven to 17. UL Monroe got shut out. Two shutouts in a row would surprise me less than a cover."
Letdown Watch added: "Military Appreciation Day, flyover, Sound of the South. Troy's going to be loud. Thirty-five to 17."
Follow The Money: "I'm sitting this one out. Somebody has to save their voice for the Sound of the South."
Bottom of the card: a home ground game against a run defense that can't stop it, and a winless visitor. Faith travels well, Darnell says, and so do peanuts. I'll lay the 17.5.
Troy Trojans 36, UL Monroe Warhawks 18. Troy Trojans cover the 17.5. Over 50.5.