Texas Tech is 6-0, and its defense has 11 interceptions. Cincinnati has thrown none. Saturday at noon, one of those numbers is getting a new entry.
No. 8 Texas Tech (6-0) at Cincinnati (4-2), Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET on FS1 at Nippert Stadium. It's a Big 12 game and Homecoming No. 100 at UC, with the parade heading down Clifton Avenue that morning. It's also Texas Tech's first trip ever to Nippert. DraftKings has Texas Tech Red Raiders −11.5 with a total of 56.5. My card: Texas Tech Red Raiders −11.5, Over 56.5, and a final of Texas Tech Red Raiders 35, Cincinnati Bearcats 23.
Lionel "Skyline" Abernathy speaks for Cincinnati and ranks everything in chili ways. "JC French has 1,338 yards and nine touchdowns with zero interceptions. We've lost two turnovers all season, the fewest in FBS. That's a five-way, onions and beans."
Bodie Ratliff speaks for Texas Tech, a bareback rider who answers most questions in one word. Asked about the Red Raider defense, Bodie said: "Ours."
Bodie's not wrong. Texas Tech allows 2.87 yards a carry and 82.0 rushing yards a game, and its 11 interceptions rank second in the nation. Cincinnati runs for 5.93 a carry. Something gives, and I'm siding with the defense that has done the taking all year.
Why Texas Tech by more than 11.5? The Red Raiders just beat Arizona State 53-25, with J'Koby Williams running for a career-high 165 yards. They've won four straight road games dating to last season and are chasing the fifth 7-0 start in school history. Cincinnati is 0-2 on the road but 4-0 at home, and this is at home, which is why the margin isn't bigger. My final has Tech by 12.
The caveat is what Cincinnati just did. The Bearcats gained 622 yards at West Virginia, French threw for a career-high 389, and Cole Tabb scored three times. They still lost 45-42 on a field goal at the horn. That offense can score on anybody.
Why the Over? Cincinnati scored 42 last week. Texas Tech scored 53. My 35-23 adds up to 58, a point and a half over 56.5. The last meeting finished 44-41.
Now the room, and the boss is almost alone. Letdown Watch is the only other voice with Texas Tech, at 35-21, and it calls the Under. The Formula has Tech 35-24, an 11-point game, so it takes Cincinnati +11.5. Next Man Up has Tech 34-25 and takes the Bearcats too. Follow The Money and In The Trenches sit this one out.
The Formula opened: "Eleven points. The line is 11.5. That half point is Homecoming No. 100 doing its job."
Letdown Watch answered: "Thirty-five to 21. Tech's defense has picked off 11 passes. French hasn't met them yet."
Next Man Up: "And French hasn't thrown one. Irresistible force, immovable object. Take the points."
Bottom of the card: an unbeaten road team with a ball-hawking defense against a Cincinnati offense that can score with anybody. Guns up, says Bodie. I'll lay the 11.5.
Texas Tech Red Raiders 35, Cincinnati Bearcats 23. Texas Tech Red Raiders cover the 11.5. Over 56.5.