Alabama opened the season scoring 48, 45, 50, 49 and 56 points. Then it scored 17 against Georgia and 10 at Tennessee. MK Strickland is straightening her pearls. Colt Wendeborn is yelling a tradition, then explaining it.
Texas A&M (4-3) at No. 13 Alabama (5-2), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC at Bryant-Denny Stadium. It's an SEC game and Homecoming in Tuscaloosa. DraftKings has Alabama Crimson Tide −14.5 with a total of 51.5. My card: Texas A&M Aggies +14.5, Over 51.5, and a final of Alabama Crimson Tide 33, Texas A&M Aggies 20.
MK speaks for Alabama, a former Tide equestrian rider. "We straighten our pearls and move on, darling. Keelon Russell has 1,746 yards and 12 touchdowns. We score 39.3 points a game. This barn has seen bad weather before."
Colt speaks for Texas A&M, a petroleum engineer who reports with his whole chest. "HOWDY! Our defense allows 164.1 passing yards a game, 10th in FBS! Let me yell that again! And we're 14th in FBS in penalties, at 41.7 yards a game!"
Here's the problem for Alabama. The Tide just managed 201 yards at Tennessee, turned it over four times and went 2 for 13 on third down. It was their first back-to-back regular-season losses since 2007. Russell said afterward, "It was just a lack of a plan that I had." Wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams, with 415 receiving yards, missed that game. Watch the SEC report.
So why A&M with the points? Because 14.5 asks Alabama to fix everything at once against a defense that allows 17.1 points a game and holds opponents to 29.8% on third down. Alabama wins in my final, by 13. That's a point and a half short.
The caveat is the Aggies' road offense. A&M scored six points in each of its two SEC road games. Marcel Reed has six interceptions. If that happens again, Alabama covers easily.
Why the Over? Reed's opening is the red zone. Alabama allows a score on 95.7% of opponents' trips inside the 20, 134th in FBS. And A&M's pass rush has only five sacks, so Russell should have time to get his plan back. My 33-20 adds up to 53, a point and a half over 51.5.
Now the room. The Formula has Alabama 32-21 and likes the Aggies. Letdown Watch has 32-20 and likes them too. Next Man Up has Alabama 33-19 and is on A&M as well, and In The Trenches sits this one out. Follow The Money is the only voice laying the points, and it calls the Under.
Next Man Up opened: "Follow The Money, three of us are taking the points and you're laying 14.5 with the Under? How?"
Follow The Money answered: "Homecoming. Bonfire on the Quad. Elephant Stomp. Two straight losses. Alabama is mad."
The Formula added: "Mad doesn't fix 2 for 13 on third down. Thirty-two to 21. I'll take the two touchdowns and the hook."
Letdown Watch: "And A&M's defense is 10th against the pass. Somebody tell the bonfire."
Bottom of the card: a home team trying to stop a slide, a road defense that doesn't give up much, and a number that asks for perfection. Gig 'em, says Colt. I'll take the 14.5.
Alabama Crimson Tide 33, Texas A&M Aggies 20. Texas A&M Aggies cover the 14.5. Over 51.5.