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Stories / College / Oct 24, 2026 / Colorado

The Fanatic · Insider report

"Statistically, That's Rad": Moss Feldstein Runs the Numbers on Colorado at Oklahoma State

By Moss Feldstein · Colorado Insider

Meet Your Insider

Hey, friends. I'm Moss Feldstein, your Colorado insider at The Cover Window. I'm a physicist, a hacky-sack enthusiast and the guy running a quant model of the Buffs from a hammock under the Flatirons. I travel and live with this team, and I bring kombucha on every road trip. It's an acquired taste. So is a 2-4 start.

Here's my approach: chill vibes, sharp numbers. Every stat in this report is sourced, and when I compute one myself, I'll tell you. If I don't know something, I'll say the data's not in yet. I celebrate our players as people first, I respect every opponent, and I'm grateful to God for mountain sunsets and the chance to keep fighting. Ralphie's running.

The School in 60 Seconds

Colorado has played at Folsom Field in Boulder since 1924. CFBD lists 50,183 seats. The Buffs won the 1990 national championship, shared with Georgia Tech. They have two Heisman winners: Rashaan Salaam in 1994 and Travis Hunter in 2024. The all-time record is 735-556-36 through 2025.

Colorado was a charter Big 12 member, left for the Pac-12 after 2010 and returned to the Big 12 in 2024. The last five seasons swing wildly: 4-8, 1-11, 4-8, a radical 9-4 in 2024 and 3-9 in 2025. High variance. Physicists love that. Fans, less so.

The Coach and the Scheme

Deion Sanders, "Coach Prime," leads the program. CFBD records his hire date as Dec. 3, 2022. His résumé is unlike anyone's. He played 14 NFL seasons, won two Super Bowls and played nine Major League Baseball seasons. He's the only athlete to play in both a Super Bowl and a World Series. At Florida State he won the 1988 Jim Thorpe Award.

Now my numbers, computed from CFBD season totals over six games. Colorado gains about 394 yards per game and allows about 357. It scores 19.5 points per game and allows 25.7. Rushing averages 3.9 yards per carry. Third downs convert at 36.1%. The defense has 13 sacks and eight interceptions.

The noisy variable is penalties: about 84 yards per game by my math. Against Utah, the Buffs had more penalty yards (82) than total yards (70) at halftime. Sanders keeps naming discipline as a frustration. Turnovers, too: 13 lost, seven forced.

Players to Know

QB Isaac Wilson: threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions against Utah, his former team. Sanders said, "Isaac is that guy," and pledged to keep developing him.
QB Julian Lewis: the season passing leader in ESPN's data, with 733 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. With both quarterbacks playing this year, I don't know who starts, and I won't guess.
WR Joseph Williams: team-best 37 catches for 508 yards and five touchdowns. That's 13.7 yards per catch by my math. Statistically, that's rad.
WR Quanell Farrakhan Jr.: caught the late pitch against Utah that was ruled an illegal forward pass.
RB JaQuail Smith: team-leading 259 rushing yards on 51 carries.
Lamont Lester Jr.: team-high four sacks.
Randon Fontenette: team-high 49 tackles.

The Conference Picture

Colorado is 2-4 overall and 0-3 in the Big 12. The Buffs won 14-13 at Georgia Tech and beat Weber State 52-21. Then came four straight losses: 41-7 at Northwestern, 23-13 at Baylor, 29-7 to Texas Tech and 27-24 to Utah.

The Utah game showed real signal. Colorado gained 324 of its 394 yards after halftime and pulled within a field goal with 1:21 left against the No. 11 team. After Oklahoma State come Kansas State at home, Arizona State on the road, Houston at home, Cincinnati on the road and UCF at home. There's season left to change the trend.

This Week: Game Preview from Both Sides

Colorado (2-4) at Oklahoma State (4-2) · Saturday, Oct. 24, 6 p.m. CT / 7 p.m. ET · Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Okla. · FS1

Last time out. Colorado lost 27-24 to Utah in Boulder in a game that ended early Sunday, Oct. 18. Oklahoma State lost 35-32 at Houston on Oct. 17.

Colorado's offense vs. Oklahoma State's defense. OSU allows about 358 yards and 23.7 points per game by my CFBD math. Opponents convert 34.9% of third downs. Houston converted 7 of 13 third downs against the Cowboys, so the window is there. Wilson's second half against Utah is the model: 324 yards after halftime.

Oklahoma State's offense vs. Colorado's defense. OSU averages about 518 yards and 37.2 points per game, by my math. Drew Mestemaker has 1,940 passing yards and 16 touchdowns, and his school says he's thrown for 300-plus in five straight games. Wyatt Young has 561 receiving yards. Our pass rush, led by Lester, needs to speed up the clock in his head.

Series. Oklahoma State's athletics site lists Colorado ahead 27-20-1 all-time. The last meeting was a 52-0 Colorado win in Boulder on Nov. 29, 2024. OSU won the previous one, 38-8 in San Antonio in 2016.

Availability. No official conference availability report has been published. The starting quarterback is unknown.

Three questions that decide it:
1. Can Colorado cut its penalty yardage on the road?
2. Can the pass rush slow Mestemaker?
3. Can the Buffs play a full game like their second half against Utah?

Local Flavor

It's homecoming in Stillwater, which Oklahoma State calls "America's Greatest Homecoming," and the game is listed as sold out. Loud crowd incoming. Back home, the game is on KOA 850 AM and 94.1 FM. Be a gracious guest, Buffs fans. Not an ad.

My call: Oklahoma State Cowboys 31, Colorado Buffaloes 21.

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