Marshall is handing out LED wristbands to light up the stadium. South Alabama is bringing a parade. Somebody is going to need sunglasses.
South Alabama (4-2) at Marshall (3-3), Tuesday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 at Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Huntington. It's a Sun Belt game. DraftKings has South Alabama Jaguars −3 with a total of 64.5. My card: Marshall Thundering Herd +3, Over 64.5, and a final of South Alabama Jaguars 34, Marshall Thundering Herd 32.
Azalea Fairhope-Grice speaks for South Alabama, a Mobile float-builder with a whistle in her purse. "Honey, we run for 220.3 yards a game. Keenan Phillips ran for 157 yards and three touchdowns at Arkansas State and returned a kickoff 100 yards. Throw that man some beads."
Mercy Holderby speaks for Marshall, a Huntington nurse raised by two Marshall grads. "We were down 27-0 to Coastal Carolina and scored three straight touchdowns. Judah Price ran for 124 yards in his first college start. That's Marshall. We do not quit."
Marshall turned it over six times in that 27-21 loss and is minus-9 in turnover margin, 136th in FBS. South Alabama leads the Sun Belt at plus-1.3 a game. Those are real problems, and they are why South Alabama is the pick to win the game.
So why Marshall? Because winning and covering are two different things, and 3 is a tight number in a game this loud. My final has the Jaguars by two. Marshall has not named its starting quarterback between Zion Turner, who threw for 219 yards and two scores against Coastal, and Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, the season passing leader. Either way, the Herd has weapons: Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw has four touchdown catches, and Price just showed what he can do.
Why the Over? South Alabama scores 38.8 points a game, 15th in FBS. Their last game finished 56-49. The Jaguars ran 50 times for 296 yards in that one, and Marshall's defense will have to prove it can stop that. My 34-32 adds up to 66, a point and a half over 64.5.
Now the room, and nobody agrees with anybody. Next Man Up has the wildest number on the board, South Alabama 38-34, and loves the Over. Letdown Watch goes the other way entirely: Marshall 33-30, outright, and the Under. The Formula has South Alabama 36-29 and takes the Jaguars and the Over. Follow The Money skips the side but calls the Over, and In The Trenches sits this one out.
Letdown Watch fired first: "Thirty-eight points? Next Man Up, you're not projecting a football game, you're projecting a scoreboard malfunction."
Next Man Up answered: "Says the one who has Marshall winning outright. Both of us have 63 points or more, and you still want it low."
The Formula chimed in: "Jaguars by seven. Somebody in this room has to be the grown-up."
Follow The Money laughed: "I'm skipping the side. Give me the Over and the fireworks."
Bottom of the card: a home crowd glowing green and white, a road favorite laying a field goal, and two offenses that can both find the end zone. Mercy's wristbands, Azalea's beads, and a final that comes down to the last drive.
South Alabama Jaguars 34, Marshall Thundering Herd 32. Marshall Thundering Herd cover the 3. Over 64.5.