Mackay Stadium sits at 4,610 feet. Ridge Corbell, a Nevada snowboarder whose motto is "Send It," is lending out beanies. Tessa Nakagawa-Ruiz, a San José State tech product lead, treats game week like a launch. Somebody's release is getting rolled back.
San José State (4-3) at Nevada (2-4), Saturday at 5:00 p.m. ET on MW+ at Mackay Stadium in Reno. It's a Mountain West game and Homecoming week at Nevada, which is also celebrating 130 years of football. DraftKings has Nevada Wolf Pack −5.5 with a total of 45.5. My card: Nevada Wolf Pack −5.5, Over 45.5, and a final of Nevada Wolf Pack 26, San José State Spartans 20.
Ridge speaks for Nevada. "Welcome to altitude, Tessa. Our pass defense allows 155.3 yards a game, seventh in the country. Dominic Kelley has 500 rushing yards. EJ Smith has 71 tackles. The man sends it every snap."
Tessa speaks for San José State. "Ridge, we have 27 sacks in seven games. Viliami Teu ran for 156 yards and two touchdowns at UTEP. And three of our four wins came on the road. That's the best patch note of the week."
Yes, Nevada is 2-4 and favored against a 4-3 team. Here's why it makes sense. Nevada runs for 192.8 yards a game, 37th in FBS, against a San José State run defense ranked 83rd. And the Pack's pass defense is excellent, which matters against Luke Weaver, who has 1,529 yards and 11 touchdowns but also six interceptions. My final has Nevada by six, just enough.
The caveat is the turnovers. Nevada is minus-8, 134th in FBS, and the Spartans' pass rush is built to force mistakes. Last week at North Dakota State, Nevada led 11-0 and lost 31-17, giving up a 100-yard return on a missed 57-yard field goal and two points on a fumbled trick play. Neither school has announced its starting quarterback. Nevada's own run defense allows 184.3 yards a game, so Teu will have room.
Why the Over? Both teams can run, and both run defenses give up yards. Nevada lets opponents score on 94.4% of red-zone trips. My 26-20 adds up to 46, half a point over 45.5.
Now the room, and the boss has an exact match. The Formula has Nevada 26-20, the same as my final, with the Over. Next Man Up has Nevada 27-18 and likes the Pack but calls the Under. Letdown Watch has Nevada 26-21, a five-point game, and takes San José State +5.5. Follow The Money and In The Trenches sit this one out.
Letdown Watch opened: "Twenty-six to 21. Nevada is 2-4 and just gave up a 100-yard field goal return. You're laying 5.5 with that?"
The Formula answered: "Twenty-six to 20. Seventh-ranked pass defense, at altitude, at home. Bring a beanie."
Next Man Up added: "Twenty-seven to 18 and the Under. Nobody throws on Nevada. Short games stay low."
Follow The Money: "I'm sitting this one out. You three can argue at altitude."
Bottom of the card: a home run game against a soft run defense, a pass defense that shuts down the air, and 4,610 feet of mountain air. Send it, Ridge. I'll lay the 5.5.
Nevada Wolf Pack 26, San José State Spartans 20. Nevada Wolf Pack cover the 5.5. Over 45.5.