Ball State is throwing its 100th Homecoming party. Sacramento State is in its first FBS season. Gus Ponder brought a dad joke for every punt. Mateo Villaseñor brought dessert.
Sacramento State (1-6) at Ball State (2-5), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+ at Scheumann Stadium in Muncie. It's a MAC game and the first meeting ever between these schools. DraftKings has Ball State Cardinals −11.5 with a total of 51.5. My card: Sacramento State Hornets +11.5, Over 51.5, and a final of Ball State Cardinals 32, Sacramento State Hornets 22.
Gus speaks for Ball State and charts special teams on a garage whiteboard. "Welcome to Muncie, chef. Keldric Luster ran 17 times for 125 yards and threw a touchdown in our 32-31 win at Bowling Green. T.J. Horton has seven touchdowns on 59 carries. Why did the punter bring string? To tie the game."
Mateo speaks for Sacramento State, a farm-to-fork chef who explains defense like a recipe. "Happy 100th, my friend. Matthew Coleman has 36 catches for 473 yards. Boogsie Silvera is a top-shelf ingredient. Season him with turnovers and watch out."
Ball State should win. My final says by 10. But 11.5 is a lot to give for a team that is 2-5 and won its last game by one point. Ball State's run defense allows 201.6 yards a game, 131st in FBS, and its pass defense allows 243.7, 112th. That's not a defense that blows anybody out. Coleman should find room, and Isaiah Ene has 246 yards on 48 carries.
The honest worry is Sacramento State's ball security. The Hornets are minus-10 in turnover margin, 137th in FBS, and they just lost 48-7 to Ohio. Jackson Sharman has six interceptions. If the Hornets turn it over three times, this number disappears.
There's also the flag factor. Ball State gives up 70.3 penalty yards a game and Sacramento State 77.1. That's a lot of free yards on both sides, and free yards make for long, sloppy afternoons.
Why the Over? Neither defense stops the run. Ball State runs it well with Luster and Horton, and Sacramento State's run defense allows 176.1 yards a game. My 32-22 adds up to 54, two and a half over 51.5. Every voice in the room agrees.
Now the room, and it's split on the side. The Formula has Ball State 32-20 and stays with the Cardinals. Follow The Money likes Ball State too, and In The Trenches sits this one out. Next Man Up has Ball State 33-22 but takes the points, and Letdown Watch has 30-23 and likes the Hornets.
Letdown Watch opened: "Thirty to 23. Ball State won by one last week. Now it's laying 11.5?"
Follow The Money answered: "Ball State. Sacramento State is minus-10 in turnovers. That's a recipe, chef."
Next Man Up added: "Thirty-three to 22, and I'm still taking the points. Half a point is half a point."
The Formula looked at its own card: "Thirty-two to 20. That clears 11.5, and I'll take every point of it."
Bottom of the card: a home team throwing a century-sized party, a defense that gives up yards, and a big number. Plate some hope, Mateo. I'll take the 11.5.
Ball State Cardinals 32, Sacramento State Hornets 22. Sacramento State Hornets cover the 11.5. Over 51.5.