Northwestern has a brand-new stadium, a quarterback with zero interceptions and a kicker who just won a game with two seconds left. Ezra Lindqvist has filed 14 pages on the sightlines. Vinny Scolari brought directions from Exit 9.
Rutgers (2-4) at No. 24 Northwestern (5-1), Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET on Peacock at Ryan Field in Evanston. It's a Big Ten game and Family Weekend. DraftKings has Northwestern Wildcats −16.5 with a total of 58.5. My card: Northwestern Wildcats −16.5, Under 58.5, and a final of Northwestern Wildcats 38, Rutgers Scarlet Knights 20.
Ezra speaks for Northwestern, a data journalist who footnotes his own jokes. "Aidan Chiles has 1,398 yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. We've lost only two turnovers all season. We score on 96.4% of red-zone trips, fourth in FBS. Footnote: I said that quietly."
Vinny speaks for Rutgers, an Exit 9 Jersey guy. "Yo, Ezra. K.J. Duff has 741 yards and nine touchdowns. We were down 23-13 to Maryland at the half and won 37-30. And we're the least penalized team in FBS. Exit 9 never lies."
Both are right, and here's why Northwestern still covers. Rutgers' defense allows 31.8 points and 185.2 rushing yards a game. Northwestern runs for 191.5. That's the matchup that decides it, and it's not close. Add a red-zone offense that almost never comes away empty, and an offense that doesn't turn it over, and you have a home favorite built to pull away. Northwestern is 4-0 at home, and its only loss came 29-23 at Indiana. My final has the Wildcats by 18.
The worry is Duff. Northwestern's pass defense ranks 100th, allowing 230.5 yards a game, and Duff caught nine for 113 and two scores against Maryland. Dylan Lonergan has 10 touchdown passes. Rutgers can keep scoring if it gets into a track meet.
Why the Under? The best way to cover 16.5 is to run the ball and keep Duff on the sideline, and that's what Northwestern does. Long drives eat clock. My 38-20 adds up to 58, half a point under 58.5. That's tight, and I'll own it.
Now the room. Next Man Up has the biggest Northwestern number, 40-19, and likes the Wildcats but calls the Over. Letdown Watch has 36-18 and likes the Under. The Formula has Northwestern 36-20, a 16-point game, so it takes Rutgers +16.5. Follow The Money and In The Trenches sit this one out.
The Formula opened: "Sixteen points. The line is 16.5. Rutgers just came back from ten down on the road. I'll take the half point and the Jersey attitude."
Next Man Up answered: "Forty to 19. Northwestern runs for 191.5 against a run defense allowing 185.2. That's not a game, that's a parade."
Letdown Watch added: "And I'm the only one who has both the Wildcats covering and the Under. Somebody here understands clock management."
Follow The Money: "I'm sitting out. Somebody here has to keep an eye on Duff."
Bottom of the card: a home team that runs, finishes drives and protects the ball against a defense that can't stop the run. Ezra gets another footnote. I'll lay the 16.5.
Northwestern Wildcats 38, Rutgers Scarlet Knights 20. Northwestern Wildcats cover the 16.5. Under 58.5.