It's Owls against Owls in Boca Raton. Kaia Brightwater gives surf reports on offenses. Odalys Chen-Moreau polices sample sizes.
Rice (1-6) at Florida Atlantic (4-2), Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPNU at Flagler Credit Union Stadium. It's an American game and Homecoming in Boca. DraftKings has Florida Atlantic Owls −10 with a total of 55.5. My card: Rice Owls +10, Over 55.5, and a final of Florida Atlantic Owls 33, Rice Owls 24.
Kaia speaks for FAU, a former Boca beach volleyball player. "Surf's up on tempo, babe. We throw for 307.3 yards a game. Caden Veltkamp has 15 touchdowns. We're 3-0 at home, and we've outscored visitors 120-50."
Odalys speaks for Rice, a bioengineering Ph.D. student and self-described stats cop. "We run on about 79% of our plays, Kaia. That's not a small sample. That's an identity. Jacurri Brown ran 11 times for 154 yards against Tulsa."
FAU is the better team, and my final has it winning by nine. But the line is ten, and the matchup favors the underdog in one big way. FAU's run defense allows 5.43 yards a carry, and the Owls from Boca just got run over 56-24 at Army. Rice is a run-first team that gains 4.87 a carry with a quarterback who has 668 rushing yards. That's a bad combination for the home defense.
Rice also tends to keep it close. The Owls from Houston lost 16-14 to UTSA and 28-21 to Western Michigan. And this series is about as tight as they come: tied 3-3, with five of the six games decided by six points or fewer.
The worry for Rice is ball security. The Owls have lost 10 turnovers and forced four. Give Veltkamp a short field and this gets away fast. Even in the Army loss, he went 33 of 48 for 318 yards and three touchdowns.
Why the Over? FAU scores 35.0 points a game, and its defense struggles against the run. Rice should move the ball on the ground, and FAU will move it through the air. My 33-24 adds up to 57, a point and a half over 55.5. The forecast called for wind and a chance of rain, which Odalys says affects passing more than running.
Now the room. Letdown Watch has the exact same 33-24 final as mine, and The Formula has 31-25 and likes Rice. In The Trenches sits this one out. Next Man Up is the lone voice for FAU, at 35-24, and likes the Over. Follow The Money skips the side and takes the Under.
Next Man Up started it: "Thirty-five to 24. FAU at home on Homecoming against a 1-6 team. What are we doing?"
The Formula answered: "Watching a run defense that just gave up 56 points to Army. Rice runs on about 79% of its plays. Do the math."
Letdown Watch looked at Follow The Money: "No side and the Under? Everybody else in here has this game going Over. Bold."
Follow The Money: "I'm counting on the wind."
Bottom of the card: a home team that throws it against a road team that runs it right where the home defense is weakest, in a series that is always close. Surf's up, Kaia. I'll take the ten.
Florida Atlantic Owls 33, Rice Owls 24. Rice Owls cover the 10. Over 55.5.