Miami scores 48.5 points a game, the most in FBS. Miami is also giving 22.5 points to the team with the best run defense in the country. Javi "The Breeze" Castillo has his sunglasses on. Dominic "Yinz" Bertolucci has his whistle.
Pittsburgh (5-2) at No. 1 Miami (6-0), Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN at Hard Rock Stadium. It's an ACC game, and Miami is honoring its 2001 national champions on their 25th anniversary. DraftKings has Miami Hurricanes −22.5 with a total of 50.5. My card: Pittsburgh Panthers +22.5, Over 50.5, and a final of Miami Hurricanes 37, Pittsburgh Panthers 18.
Javi speaks for Miami, a former Canes defensive back who scouts in linen. "It's all about the U, baby! Darian Mensah completes 80.8% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and one interception. Malachi Toney has 758 yards. Number one in the sun, Canes get it done!"
Yinz speaks for Pitt, a steel-town linebacker who grades every tackle from "yinz" to "yikes." "Nice sunglasses. We allow 57.3 rushing yards a game, best in FBS. Opponents get 2.02 a carry. Dat's a yinz problem, not a yikes problem."
Miami wins this game. My final says by 19, and nobody in the room disagrees on the winner. The Canes have scored 30 or more in every game and they're 3-0 on the road. They just beat Florida State 43-35, with Toney catching 11 passes for 154 yards.
So why Pitt? Because 22.5 points is a cliff, and Pitt's run defense takes away half of what a big favorite uses to pull away. Miami gains 6.09 yards a carry. If Pitt holds that ground game in check, Miami has to do it all through the air.
The honest worry is Pitt's quarterback. Mason Heintschel tore his ACL and is out for the season, and Pat Narduzzi hasn't said who starts. Corey Dailey went 11 of 25 with two interceptions in his first start. Pitt's pass defense ranks 115th, allowing 249.0 yards a game, which is exactly where Mensah and Toney live.
Why the Over? Miami gets to 37 on its own in my final, and Pitt only needs a few scores to push it past 50.5. My 37-18 adds up to 55. The forecast called for a chance of storms, so watch the weather.
Now the room, and four voices are on Pitt. The Formula has Miami 36-20, Letdown Watch has 36-17, Next Man Up has the biggest number at 40-19, and all three call the Over. Follow The Money likes Pitt too, but calls the Under. In The Trenches sits it out.
Next Man Up opened: "Forty to 19. And I still take Pitt plus 22.5. That's how big this number is."
Letdown Watch answered: "Thirty-six to 17. I'm with you. Miami's going to win by plenty and still not get there."
The Formula turned on Follow The Money: "You're on Pitt with us and then you pick the Under? That's not a pick, that's a typo."
Follow The Money: "It's a forecast. Storms, wind, and you three out in the rain."
Bottom of the card: the best team in the country against a defense that stops the run, and a number that asks Miami to win by four touchdowns. Grab a cafecito. Take the points.
Miami Hurricanes 37, Pittsburgh Panthers 18. Pittsburgh Panthers cover the 22.5. Over 50.5.