Oregon won last week on a 4-yard touchdown pass with 28 seconds left, thrown by a quarterback who came off the bench against his old team. Illinois won its last game in overtime with a freshman off the bench. Two quarterback rooms, two question marks, and Margery Vandermolen has a chart for both.
Oregon (4-2) at Illinois (3-3), Saturday at 3:00 p.m. ET on BTN at Gies Memorial Stadium in Champaign. It's a Big Ten game and Military Appreciation weekend. DraftKings has Oregon Ducks −10.5 with a total of 51.5. My card: Illinois Fighting Illini +10.5, Over 51.5, and a final of Oregon Ducks 33, Illinois Fighting Illini 23.
Nix Wyatt-Aldana speaks for Oregon, a Eugene sneaker-and-uniform designer. "Dylan Raiola against his former team, down 14-6, last-minute winner. That's a ten-out-of-ten fit. And our defense allows 3.25 yards a carry."
Margery speaks for Illinois, a prairie-state numbers whiz who teaches football like a beloved teacher. "That's very generous, dear. Collin Dixon has nine touchdown catches, third in FBS. Class, please take a moment to admire that number. Oskee-wow-wow!"
Oregon is the better team, and my final has it by 10. But the Ducks' quarterback situation is unsettled. Dante Moore hasn't played since his fourth game, Dan Lanning said Raiola and Brock Thomas will keep competing, and Thomas went 9 of 20 for 54 yards before Raiola came in against Nebraska.
Why Illinois? The Illini had a bye to get ready, they're at home, and they have the best receiver on the field in Dixon. Katin Houser has 1,440 yards and 12 touchdowns, and Illinois runs for 5.06 yards a carry. Whoever starts for Oregon faces a defense with nine interceptions, including Matthew Bailey's 88-yard return for a score.
The caveat is the Oregon defense. Matayo Uiagalelei has five sacks, and the Ducks don't let anybody run. If Illinois can't run, it gets one-dimensional, and Oregon won the last meeting 38-9.
Why the Over? Illinois allows 248.3 passing yards a game, so whichever Oregon quarterback plays will have room. My 33-23 adds up to 56, four and a half over 51.5.
Now the room, and four voices call the Over. Follow The Money skips the total. The side is where the fight is. Next Man Up is the lone voice laying the points, with Oregon 35-24. The Formula has Oregon 34-24, a 10-point game, and takes Illinois. Letdown Watch has 32-24 and likes the Illini. Follow The Money likes Illinois too, and so does In The Trenches.
Next Man Up opened: "Thirty-five to 24. Oregon won the last meeting 38-9. You four are taking points from the Ducks?"
The Formula answered: "We're taking points from a team that doesn't know who its quarterback is. Margery has a chart with a lot of empty boxes."
Letdown Watch added: "Illinois had a week off. Oregon had a 17-14 scare. I know which locker room is calmer."
Follow The Money: "I'm with the Illini. The total I'll leave to you four."
Bottom of the card: the better team on the road with a quarterback question, against a rested home team with a receiver who finds the end zone. Ten out of ten for stamina, Margery. I'll take the 10.5.
Oregon Ducks 33, Illinois Fighting Illini 23. Illinois Fighting Illini cover the 10.5. Over 51.5.