Ole Miss has scored on 100% of its red-zone trips this season, first in FBS. Texas has Colin Simmons, with 10.5 sacks. Caro Whitfield, a Texas fan, former rodeo queen and ex-consultant, calls him a premium asset. Langston Fairbanks, an Ole Miss fan in seersucker who reads Faulkner and game film in the same sitting, prefers to read players like poetry.
No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1) at No. 19 Texas (4-2), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. It's an SEC night game and the first meeting between the schools as SEC members. DraftKings has Texas Longhorns −3.5 with a total of 52.5. My card: Texas Longhorns −3.5, Over 52.5, and a final of Texas Longhorns 29, Ole Miss Rebels 25.
Caro speaks for Texas. "Darling, our defense allows 272.5 yards a game, 12th in FBS. Rasheem Biles has 48 tackles and two interceptions. We beat Ohio State 24-23. And Texas leads this series 6-2. That's a sturdy portfolio, and I don't sell in October."
Langston speaks for Ole Miss. "Madam, we beat No. 13 Missouri 31-3. A short story, beautifully told. Trinidad Chambliss has 14 touchdown passes. Kewan Lacy ran for 122 yards last week. And Mr. Faulkner reminds you the past is never dead."
Why Texas? Because the Longhorns have been losing close. They lost 27-24 to Florida, their second straight three-point loss. Now Arch Manning gets an Ole Miss defense allowing 390 yards a game, 108th in FBS, and opponents convert 44% of third downs against the Rebels. Simmons against Chambliss is the matchup of the night. My final has Texas by four.
The caveat is that perfect red zone. Ole Miss doesn't waste trips, and Chambliss has only four interceptions. Deuce Alexander has 523 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Ole Miss scores fast and holds the ball only 26:59 a game, so it doesn't need many drives. Manning went just 14 of 20 for 173 yards against Florida.
Why the Over? Ole Miss turns every red-zone trip into points, and Texas should move the ball on a defense ranked 108th. My 29-25 adds up to 54, a point and a half over 52.5.
Now the room. The Formula has Texas 31-24 and Next Man Up has Texas 30-23. Both like the Longhorns and the Over. In The Trenches sits this one out. Letdown Watch has Texas 28-26 and takes Ole Miss. Follow The Money likes Ole Miss and the Under.
Letdown Watch opened: "Twenty-eight to 26. Two straight three-point losses. Texas keeps losing close ones. Why would this one be different?"
The Formula answered: "Thirty-one to 24. Because Simmons has 10.5 sacks at home."
Next Man Up turned on Follow The Money: "Ole Miss and the Under, with a Rebel defense ranked 108th on the field? Seersucker weather got to you."
Follow The Money: "Every great novel has a twist in the final chapter."
Bottom of the card: a home team that has been one play short twice, a pass rush with 10.5 sacks, and a road defense that gives up yards. Hook 'em, Caro. I'll lay the 3.5.
Texas Longhorns 29, Ole Miss Rebels 25. Texas Longhorns cover the 3.5. Over 52.5.