Louisiana Tech opened the season beating Northwestern State 80-6. Old Dominion's offense gains 266 yards a game, 138th in FBS. Booker "Champ" Tullos thinks everything is peachy. Winnie Pocklington treats every first down like a knighthood. She may not be knighting many.
Old Dominion (2-5) at Louisiana Tech (4-2), Saturday at 5:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ at Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston. It's a Sun Belt game and Homecoming at the Joe. DraftKings has Louisiana Tech Bulldogs −10.5 with a total of 44.5. My card: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs −10.5, Over 44.5, and a final of Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 30, Old Dominion Monarchs 18.
Champ speaks for Louisiana Tech, who grew up on a Ruston-area peach farm. "We shut out UL Monroe 24-0. Blake Baker has nine touchdown passes and one interception. Alonzo Jackson Jr. has five sacks. That's peach cobbler served warm, Winnie."
Winnie speaks for Old Dominion. "Hear ye, hear ye! Javen Gibson has five sacks of his own. I knight him Sir Sackalot. And we won 10-3 at App State, which Her Majesty considers a royal decree."
Why Louisiana Tech by more than 10.5? The pass rush against the protection. Old Dominion has allowed 32 sacks, and Jackson has five by himself. Louisiana Tech is plus-5 in turnover margin, 15th in FBS, and Old Dominion is minus-3. Old Dominion also hasn't announced whether Quinn Henicle or Ryan Huff starts. Louisiana Tech is 3-0 at home and 2-0 in its first Sun Belt season. My final has the Bulldogs by 12.
The caveat: Louisiana Tech doesn't always pull away. Two of its four wins came by two points or fewer, 31-29 over Army and 32-31 over Louisiana. And its red-zone offense scores on 76% of trips, 118th, so some drives end in field goals. Old Dominion's defense allows 335.7 yards a game, 47th, and has forced 12 turnovers.
Why the Over? It's the honest worry on this card, and I'll say so. Old Dominion's offense ranks 138th in yards, so the Over needs Louisiana Tech to do most of the scoring, plus a short field or two from all those sacks and takeaways. My 30-18 adds up to 48, three and a half over 44.5. Every voice in the room agrees.
Now the room, and the side is easy: four voices are on Louisiana Tech. In The Trenches sits this one out. The Formula, Next Man Up and Letdown Watch all have Tech scoring 31: The Formula with 31-20, Next Man Up with 31-16 and Letdown Watch with 31-19, and all three call the Over. Follow The Money likes Tech but skips the total.
Next Man Up opened: "Thirty-one to 16. Thirty-two sacks allowed. Somebody hand Winnie's quarterback a helmet with extra padding."
Follow The Money answered: "Tech and nothing else. I'm the conservative one today. Somebody has to be."
The Formula added: "Thirty-one to 20. Old Dominion scores 20 in my version. Be grateful, Winnie."
Letdown Watch: "Homecoming in Ruston. Everybody's cousin is in town. Nobody's cousin is letting this one slip."
Bottom of the card: a home pass rush against a line that can't block it, a quarterback question on the other side, and a Homecoming crowd. A porch seat for Winnie, win or lose. I'll lay the 10.5.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 30, Old Dominion Monarchs 18. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs cover the 10.5. Over 44.5.