Oklahoma and Mississippi State have never played each other. But Jeff Lebby was Oklahoma's offensive coordinator in 2022 and 2023, so the Bulldogs' coach knows exactly where the Sooners keep the spare key.
Oklahoma (3-3) at Mississippi State (4-2), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville. It's an SEC game and a Black Out. DraftKings has Oklahoma Sooners −2.5 with a total of 46.5. My card: Mississippi State Bulldogs +2.5, Over 46.5, and a final of Oklahoma Sooners 25, Mississippi State Bulldogs 24.
Wade Pettus speaks for Mississippi State, a poultry-science grad who charts Air Raid concepts on feed-store receipts. "Welcome to Starkville. Ding. That's one ring, politely. Kamario Taylor has 17 touchdown passes, and we beat South Carolina 41-34 on the road."
Savannah Redbird-Lowe speaks for Oklahoma, a former rodeo princess who reads defenses like barrel patterns. "Boomer! Our defense allows 260.7 yards a game, fifth in FBS, and opponents convert 25.6% of third downs, second-best in the country. That's a clean barrel pattern, sugar."
So why the Bulldogs? Because my final has Oklahoma by one, and you're getting 2.5 at home in a Black Out. Oklahoma is minus-8 in turnover margin, and John Mateer just threw three interceptions in a 21-13 home loss to Kentucky. A team that gives it away is a hard team to lay points with on the road. Savannah says they're cleaning the saddle this week, which is honest of her.
The big question is health. Taylor missed the LSU game with a foot injury, and running back Fluff Bothwell was unavailable too. Neither has an official status. Watch the SEC report. Without them, Mississippi State lost 31-0 to LSU with a backup quarterback making his first career start. With them, the Bulldogs gain 454.3 yards a game, 22nd in FBS.
The caveat: Oklahoma's defense is the best thing in this game, and if Taylor can't go, this gets harder for the Bulldogs.
Why the Over? Mississippi State's pass defense allows 264.8 yards a game, 127th. Mateer will have room to throw. Anthony Evans III has 614 receiving yards for the Bulldogs. My 25-24 adds up to 49, two and a half over 46.5.
Now the room, and four voices call the Over. Next Man Up has Mississippi State winning outright, 25-23, and likes the Bulldogs. The Formula has Oklahoma 26-24 and takes the points, and In The Trenches likes Mississippi State too. Letdown Watch has Oklahoma 27-23. Follow The Money likes the Sooners but skips the total.
Letdown Watch opened: "Twenty-seven to 23. Mississippi State just got shut out. Oklahoma beat Texas. Who's taking the dogs?"
Next Man Up answered: "Me, outright. Their quarterback wasn't on the field for that shutout. That was a backup's first career start."
The Formula added: "Twenty-six to 24. Oklahoma wins, Oklahoma doesn't cover. That's the most common sentence in this room."
Follow The Money: "Minus-8 in turnovers and I'm still laying it. Call me an optimist with a cowbell."
Bottom of the card: a coin-flip game, a home team with its coordinator's old playbook and a loud stadium, and an Oklahoma team that keeps giving the ball away. Bring earplugs, Wade says. I'll take the 2.5.
Oklahoma Sooners 25, Mississippi State Bulldogs 24. Mississippi State Bulldogs cover the 2.5. Over 46.5.